Research Series 01.2012 - Newidea 13 - 2013 GCSP avenue de la Paix 7bis Bringing Back Transitology P. O. Box 1295 CH - 1211 Geneva 1 T + 41 22 906 16 00 Democratisation in the 21st Century F + 41 22 906 16 49 [email protected] www.gcsp.ch Mohammad-Mahmoud Ould Mohamedou and Timothy D. Sisk Impartial, Inclusive, Influential The opinions and views expressed in this document do not necessarily reflect the position of the Swiss authorities or the Geneva Centre for Security Policy. Copyright © Geneva Centre for Security Policy, 2013 Bringing Back Transitology Democratisation in the 21st Century Mohammad-Mahmoud Ould Mohamedou and Timothy D. Sisk GCSP Geneva Papers — Research Series n° 13, November 2013 BRINGING BACK TRANSITOLOGY The Geneva Centre for Security Policy The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) is an international centre for secu- rity policy based in Geneva. An international foundation with over forty member states, it offers courses for civil servants, diplomats and military officers from all over the world. Through research, workshops and conferences it provides an internationally recognised forum for dialogue on timely issues relating to security and peace. The Geneva Papers and l’Esprit de Genève With its vocation for peace, Geneva is the city where international organisations, NGOs, and the academic community, working together, have the possibility of creating the essential conditions for debate and concrete action. The Geneva Papers intend to serve the same goal by promoting a platform for constructive and substantive dialogue. Geneva Papers – Research Series The Geneva Papers – Research Series is a set of publications offered by the GCSP. It complements the Geneva Papers – Conference Series that was launched in 2008, whose purpose is to reflect on the main issues and debates of an event organised by the GCSP. The Geneva Papers – Research Series seeks to analyse international security issues through an approach that combines policy analysis and academic rigor. It encour- ages reflection on new and traditional security issues that are relevant to GCSP training, such as the globalisation of security, new threats to international secu- rity, conflict trends and conflict management, transatlantic and European security, the role of international institutions in security governance and human security. The Research Series offers innovative analyses, case studies, policy prescriptions and critiques, to encourage global discussion. Drafts are peer-reviewed by the GCSP Review Committee. All Geneva Papers are available online at www.gcsp.ch/Resources-Publica- tions/Publications For further information, please contact : [email protected] Copyright © Geneva Centre for Security Policy, 2013 BRINGING BACK TRANSITOLOGY Table of Contents About the Authors ................................................................................................4 Executive Summary..............................................................................................7 Introduction: Why should Transitology be “Brought Back In”? ..................................................9 I. Transitions toward Democracy: Taking the Long View ........................................................................................ 15 II. Critiques of Transitology ............................................................................... 19 III. Democratic Transition: Founding Moment and Forward Movement ........................................................ 26 IV. Conclusion: Promises and Limits of Transitology .................................................................. 32 GCSP Geneva Papers — Research Series n°13 3 About the authors Dr Mohammad-Mahmoud Ould Mohamedou is the Head of the Regional Capacity Development Programme at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy and Visiting Professor at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva. Dr Mohamedou was previously the Associate Director of the Harvard University Programme on Humanitarian Policy and Conflict Research, former Foreign Minister of Mauritania, Director of Research of the International Council on Human Rights Policy and Research Associate at the Ralph Bunche Institute on the United Nations in New York. His works include Understanding Al Qaeda – Changing War and Global Politics (Pluto, 2011), Contre-Croisade – Le 11 Septembre et le Retournement du Monde (L’Harmattan, 2011) and Iraq and the Second Gulf War – Statebuilding and Regime Security (Austin and Winfeld, 2002). He contributed chapters to, notably, An International History of Terrorism (Routledge, 2013), Violent Non-State Actors in Contemporary World Politics (Columbia University Press, 2010), Rethinking the Foreign Policies of the Global South (Lynne Reinner, 2003) and Governance and Democratisation in the Middle East (Avebury, 1998). Dr Mohamedou earned a Ph.D. in Political Science (foreign policy, comparative politics) from the City University of New York Graduate School (best dissertation of the year award) in 1996 and was a post-doctoral Visiting Fellow at the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies at Harvard University in 1996-1997. His research focuses on transnational terrorism, transformation of war, political transitions and statebuilding. Dr Timothy D. Sisk is Professor of International and Comparative Politics at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, and faculty in the Sié Chéou Kang Centre for International Security and Diplomacy at the School. Dr Sisk serves as an Associate Fellow of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy. He is the author, notably, of Statebuilding – Consolidating Peace after Civil War (Polity, 2013), International Mediation in Civil Wars – Bargaining with Bullets (Routledge, 2009) and Democratisation in South Africa – The Elusive Social Contract (Princeton University Press, 1995), as well as the editor of From War to Democracy – Dilemmas of Peacebuilding (with Anna Jarstad, Cambridge University Press, 2008) and The Dilemmas of Statebuilding – Confronting the Contradictions of Postwar Peace Operations (with Roland Paris, Routledge 2009). Prior to joining the University of Denver in 1998, Dr Sisk was a Programme Officer in the Grant Programme of the United States Institute of Peace in Washington and, prior to that, a staff member for a United States Senator. Dr Sisk earned a Ph.D. “with 4 GCSP Geneva Papers — Research Series n° 13 distinction” in political science (comparative politics, research methods) from The George Washington University in 1992, and an MA in International Journalism (1984) and a BA in Foreign Service and German (1982) from Baylor University. His research focuses on the nexus between democracy and governance and the management of conflict in deeply divided societies, especially those emerging from civil war. GCSP Geneva Papers — Research Series n°13 5 BRINGING BACK TRANSITOLOGY 6 GCSP Geneva Papers — Research Series n° 13 BRINGING BACK TRANSITOLOGY BRINGING BACK TRANSITOLOGY Executive Summary Can political and socioeconomic transitions be systematised beyond their own contexts and specificities? In examining political liberalisation attempts taking place in the early twenty-first century, notably those leading up to and in the wake of the Arab Spring, dominant perspectives have featured a conspicuous absence of the literature on transitions to democracy of the past forty or so years. For all its insights and shortcomings, the framework of transitology (a body of literature that has comparatively and through case-study analysis exam- ined common patterns, sequences, crises and outcomes of transitional periods) has been largely eschewed. The combined effect of the emphasis on regional narratives and immediate political dynamics has stripped the understanding of a new generation of political transitions of a deeper background of transitology which carries much relevance, albeit one in need of updating in light of recent experiences. This essay argues that it is time to bring transitology back in. That is, to re-assert, review and revise, and develop further theories, concepts and approaches to understanding turbulent transitions in countries seeking to emerge from autocracy. Policy analysis to assess the nature and lasting consequences of several current waves of social and political upheavals is lacking firm framework guidance. As a result, the understanding of momentous transformations is impres- sionistic, formulaic, short term and unscientific. It is much too early to conclude that the Arab Spring has ‘failed’; indeed, we maintain that in the course of transi- tion from the autocratic regimes of the past, new attributes of democratic politics are slowly emerging: citizenship, open debate and public demands for account- ability. Yet democratisation processes can be studied regardless of whether they actually arrive in a consolidated democracy as an outcome. Focusing on the common attributes of the democratisation process across a wide variety of experience, the transitology perspective emerged from analysis of the transitions since 1974 and broadened more extensively into the post-Cold War period. The literature addresses the pathways of transition, including likely triggering events, collective action in social movements and patterns of revolt, regime repression and escalating political violence. Democratisation theory emphasises the importance of strategic interactions between elites and citizens in complex processes that involve revisiting the basic rules of the political game. Such processes are