Malaysia | June 1, 2021 Key Metrics Malaysia Daybreak | 1 June 2021 FBMKLCI Index 1,700 ▌What’s on the Table… 1,650 ———————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————— 1,600 1,550 Economic Update – Stimulus #9: Not much left in the tank 1,500 Despite a RM40bn price tag, PEMERKASA+ underwhelmed, comprising largely 1,450 liquidity and credit assistance (RM35bn) vs. fiscal injection (RM5bn). Fiscal 1,400 reticence means inability to bring Covid-19 wave under control within 6-week Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20 Feb-21 Apr-21 Jun-21 target will exert a heavier toll on economy and vulnerable sectors. We reiterate ——————————————————————————— our forecasts of GDP growth at 4.4% and OPR at 1.75% in 2021 FBMKLCI 1,583.55 -10.89pts -0.68% Agribusiness – Covid-19 impact on Malaysia CPO supply MAY Future JUN Future 1584 - (-0.47%) 1581 - (-0.66%) The Malaysian palm oil industry is allowed to operate at optimal capacity despite ——————————————————————————— the “total lockdown”, which will be effective from 1 to 14 Jun. This is positive, but Gainers Losers Unchanged rising Covid-19 cases are indirectly impacting productivity at the estates due to 273 843 354 ——————————————————————————— the delay in allowing the return of 32k foreign workers. As such, there is a Turnover downside risk to Malaysia CPO supply, although this will be offset by higher CPO 6415.31m shares / RM3477.301m prices. We reiterate our Neutral rating for the sector. 3m avg volume traded 7612.95m shares 3m avg value traded RM4364.74m IHH Healthcare Bhd – Slowly but surely ——————————————————————————— Regional Indices 1Q21 yoy earnings growth was strong, spurred by better EBITDA margins on the FBMKLCI FSSTI JCI SET HSI return of elective procedures and aided by Covid-19 related services. We like that 1,584 3,164 5,947 1,594 29,152 revenue intensity has improved in several markets, while HK Gleneagles is ———————————————————————————————— seeing lower losses yoy. Reiterate Add with an unchanged SOP-based TP of Market Indices Close % chg YTD % chg S$6.91. FBMKLCI 1,583.55 (0.7) (2.7) FBM100 11,198.59 (0.7) (2.6) Alliance Bank Malaysia Berhad – One of the highest CCORs in the sector FBMSC 15,992.21 (1.0) 2.7 FBMMES 7,681.26 (2.1) (28.4) AMMB Holdings – One-off provision/impairment of RM4.77bn Dow Jones 34,529.45 0.2 12.8 NASDAQ 13,748.74 0.1 6.7 Bonia Corporation – Better margins lift earnings in 3QFY21 FSSTI 3,164.28 (0.4) 11.3 FTSE-100 7,022.61 0.0 8.7 British American Tobacco – Affordability could rear its ugly head again SENSEX 51,937.44 1.0 8.8 Hang Seng 29,151.80 0.1 7.1 JCI 5,947.46 1.7 (0.5) Destini Berhad – A long road to recovery KOSPI 3,203.92 0.5 11.5 Nikkei 225 28,860.08 (1.0) 5.2 DRB-Hicom – Stuck at the red lights PCOMP 6,628.49 (0.7) (7.2) SET 1,593.59 0.7 10.0 IHH Healthcare Bhd – Slowly but surely Shanghai 3,615.48 0.4 4.1 Taiwan 17,068.43 1.2 15.9 Kawan Food – Expecting higher sales owing to MCO ———————————————————————————————— Top Actives Mah Sing Group – A more exciting 2H21 ahead Close % chg Vol. (m) KUMPULAN JETSON 0.580 (0.9) 371.2 Malaysian Pacific Industries – In the midst of a new investment cycle HB GLOBAL LTD 0.310 6.9 351.5 MPAY 0.235 2.2 252.3 KANGER 0.080 (5.9) 201.6 Malaysian Resources Corp – The going gets tougher under FMCO SYSTECH 0.305 (11.6) 148.2 UCREST 0.435 4.8 146.5 MY E.G. Services – A healthy start to FY21F SMTRACK 0.100 0.0 140.6 PRIVASIA TECH 0.300 1.7 127.1 Velesto Energy Berhad – Potential insurance payout to help cut debt ———————————————————————————————— Economic Statistics YTL Power International – Earnings recovery on track Close % chg US$/Euro 1.2228 (0.02) RM/US$ (Spot) 4.1252 (0.04) RM/US$ (12-mth NDF) 4.1710 (0.61) OPR (%) 1.75 0.00 ▌News of the Day… GOLD ( US$/oz) 1,906.70 (0.01) ———————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————— WTI crude oil US spot (US$/barrel) 66.32 (0.79) CPO spot price (RM/tonne) 4,300.00 1.33 • PM unveils RM40b Penmerkasa Plus financial aid package ———————————————————————————————————————— • Government is targeting to reach herd immunity for Covid 19 by end-2021 Ivy NG Lee Fang, CFA T (60) 3 2261 9073 • Supermax says it is abiding by labour laws after report on US probe E [email protected] • Axiata and RHB Bank to jointly bid for digital bank licence, say sources Show Style "View Doc Map" • RHB announces its new group management organisation structure • Vitrox unit buys land worth RM48m from Penang Development Corporation IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. IF THIS REPORT IS DISTRIBUTED IN Powered by the THE UNITED STATES IT IS DISTRIBUTED BY CGS-CIMB SECURITIES (USA), INC. AND IS CONSIDERED THIRD-PARTY AFFILIATED RESEARCH. EFA Platform Sources: CIMB. COMPANY REPORTS Sources: CIMB. COMPANY REPORTS Malaysia Daybreak | June 1, 2021 Global Economic News The global economic outlook is improving as vaccine rollouts allow businesses to resume operations and as the US pumps trillions of dollars into its economy, nudging OECD GDP forecasts higher to 5.8% this year and 4.4% next year, from 5.6% and 4.0% respectively in March. (Edge Markets) The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will raise the FX reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions to 7% from 5%, effective on 15 Jun to "strengthen FX liquidity management at financial institutions”. (Reuters) China will allow couples to have three children, loosening its historic family planning policies in the face of a looming demographic crisis just weeks after reporting that its population grew at the slowest rate in decades. It was unclear when the new “three-child policy” would take effect. (Financial Times) OPEC’s Joint Technical Committee estimated that by the end of Jul stockpiles of crude oil in developed nations will be below the average levels seen during 2015 to 2019 -- a key benchmark for the group. Between Sep and Dec, inventories will be depleted by more than 2mbpd. (Bloomberg) Malaysia Economic News Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin has announced a RM40bn aid package inclusive of an RM5bn direct fiscal injection dubbed PEMERKASA+ ahead of the two-week MCO 3.0. (Edge Markets) Please refer to our note for details The government is targeting to complete the National Covid-19 Vaccination Programme across Malaysia by Dec 2021, said Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin. This will begin with completion by Oct 2021 for states with high population such as Selangor, KL, Johor and Penang. By the end of Jun, we will be able to reach the target of 150,000 doses a day. (Edge Markets) A total of 30 mobile vaccination trucks will be activated in People’s Housing Project (PPR) areas and construction sites in the federal capital to speed up the process of administering Covid-19 vaccines, said Khairy Jamaluddin. The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme coordinating minister said the pilot mobile vaccination truck project will be implemented by the Ministry of Federal Territories soon in areas with a high population density and construction sites that are still in operation during the total lockdown. (Bernama) The supply of essential goods nationwide is still adequate and stable despite a reported increase in shopping activities at supermarkets over the past three days, said Deputy Domestic Trade and Consumer Affairs Minister Datuk Rosol Wahid. He said a total of 2,262 enforcement officers of the ministry are monitoring and checking supplies at all levels of the supply chain nationwide. (Bernama) The continued opening of certain sectors under the upcoming total lockdown (MCO 3.0) was done in order to ensure supply chain continuity of essential products and services, as well as to safeguard the rakyat. In a statement, the Ministry of Finance (MoF) stated that while it was vital to contain the Covid-19 pandemic efficiently, there was also a need to prevent any disruption to the manufacturing value chain that could threaten the continued production of goods and services feeding into essential industries and such as food, health/medical equipment, pharmaceuticals, goods such as soap and detergents and telecommunications. (The Edge Markets) 2 Malaysia Daybreak | June 1, 2021 All banks remained well-capitalised to withstand potential shocks and to continue supporting credit flows to the economy, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) said. The central bank said banks’ excess capital buffers amounted to RM124.2bn as at Apr. The banking system’s asset quality also remained sound, it said in its Monthly Highlights – April 2021 report. "Overall gross and net impaired loans ratios were sustained at 1.6% and 1.0%, as impairments moderated slightly during the month. However, banks continued to set aside additional provisions against potential credit losses, which currently stand at 1.7% of total banking system loans," BNM said. (Bernama) Political News Senior Minister Datuk Seri Mohamed Azmin Ali, who is also International Trade and Industry Minister, and his three children have settled a lawsuit brought by YHA Travel and Tours (M) Sdn Bhd, with the terms of the settlement to remain confidential. YHA Travel's lawyer Adam Yap confirmed that Azmin also agreed to withdraw his counterclaim against the firm and pay RM1,000 in costs. (The Edge Markets) Malaysia's new daily Covid-19 cases fell to 6,824, bringing total number of cases to 572,357.