THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW AFRICA'S BATTLE WITH COVID-19 AND THE ROAD AHEAD SANGEET JAIN MEGHNA CHADHA KWAME OWINO JOHN MUTUA THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW AFRICA’S BATTLE WITH COVID-19 AND THE ROAD AHEAD Lead Authors Sangeet Jain Meghna Chadha Kwame Owino John Mutua Contributing Authors Abhishek Mishra Alisha George Ananya Pushpa Gandhi Annah-Grace Kemunto Annapurna Mitra Arjun Jayakumar Jackline Kagume Leo Kipkogei Kemboi Maureen Barasa Noah Wamalwa Oommen C. Kurian Prachi Mittal Raphael Muya Sadhika Sasiprabhu Design Rahil Miya Shaikh With special thanks to Kriti Kapur at the Observer Research Foundation for her invaluable time and inputs. @ 2020 Observer Research Foundation All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from ORF. Attribution: Sangeet Jain, Meghna Chadha, Kwame Owino and John Mutua, “The Day After Tomorrow: Africa’s Battle with Covid-19 and the Road Ahead,” Observer Research Foundation, July 2020. Cover Image ©Shutterstock Observer Research Foundation 20 Rouse Avenue, Institutional Area New Delhi - 110002, India [email protected] www.orfonline.org ORF provides non-partisan, independent analyses on matters of security, strategy, economy, development, energy and global governance to diverse decision-makers including governments, business communities, academia and civil society. ORF’s mandate is to conduct in-depth research, provide inclusive platforms, and invest in tomorrow’s thought leaders today. This report was prepared in collaboration with the Institute of Economic Affairs, Kenya. The recommendations and the views expressed herein, are, however, those of the authors and do not reflect the formal position of these organisations. Design and Layout: Rahil Miya Shaikh Photos and images Page 4: Shutterstock – Freddy Thuerig Page 10: Unsplash – Doug Linstedt Page 13: Shutterstock – A1.VIEWS Page 18: Shutterstock – Yaw Niel Page 59: Shutterstock – Yaw Niel Page 105: Shutterstock – Mark Fisher Page 149: Pixabay – skeeze Page 152: Shutterstock – Chadolfski ISBN: 978-93-90159-79-6 ISBN Digital: 978-93-90159-80-2 CONTENTS 4 CONTENTS Foreword ................................................................................................................... 10 Executive Summary ................................................................................................... 13 I. Risks ................................................................................................................... 18 1.1 A Health and Demographic Risk Profile for the African Continent 20 Prachi Mittal and Oommen C. Kurian 1.2 Some matter more than others: Africa’s economic vulnerabilities 31 Annapurna Mitra and Alisha George 1.3 Fragile States, Corruption and Conflict: Assessing Political Risks 46 in Africa Leo Kipkogei Kemboi and Jackline Kagume 1.4 Moored in the Digital Doldrums: Mapping Africa’s 53 Technological Challenges Arjun Jayakumar II. Response ............................................................................................................ 59 2.1 Africa’s Health Response to Covid-19: The continent fights back 61 Meghna Chadha and Ananya Pushpa Gandhi 2.2 An Assessment of the Economic Responses to Covid-19 77 in the African Continent Noah Wamalwa, John Mutua and Raphael Muya 2.3 The Politics of the Pandemic: Cultivating a Pan-African Response 90 Meghna Chadha 2.4 How Africa Leveraged Technology to Combat Covid-19 98 Sadhika Sasiprabhu III. Resilience ........................................................................................................... 105 3.1 Building Resilient Healthcare Systems in the African Continent 107 Abhishek Mishra and Alisha George 3.2 Built to last: African economies must use the pandemic 115 to build back better Maureen Barasa, Annah-Grace Kemunto and Kwame Owino 3.3 One ring to rule them all: Fostering socio-political resilience 126 for effective crisis response Sangeet Jain 3.4 Tech to the rescue: How to make Africa’s digital transformation 138 work for resilience Sangeet Jain and Sadhika Sasiprabhu Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 149 Annexe ....................................................................................................................... 152 About the Authors Abhishek Mishra Abhishek Mishra is a Junior Fellow with the Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation, and a doctoral candidate at the Department of African Studies, University of Delhi. He has written extensively on topics including the African Continental Free Trade Area, Ten Guiding Principles for India-Africa Engagement, India-Africa Partnership for Food Security and Capacity Building, and India-Africa Maritime Cooperation in the Western Indian Ocean, and is currently working on Africa and COVID-19. Alisha George Alisha George is a Research Intern at the Observer Research Foundation. She obtained her MA in Economics from the Delhi School of Economics and BA (Hons.) in Economics from St. Stephen’s College, New Delhi. She has previously interned with the Economic Research Foundation and Institute of Economic Growth. Her research interests are in the fields of development economics and macroeconomics. Ananya Pushpa Gandhi Ananya Pushpa Gandhi is a Research Intern at the Observer Research Foundation and a third-year student at Symbiosis School for Liberal Arts, where she is majoring in Economics with minors in Mathematics and Anthropology. Her research interests lie at the nexus of gender and economics. Annah-Grace Kemunto Annah-Grace is a Research Assistant at the Institute of Economic Affairs, Kenya, where she undertakes research on economic regulation and public financial management. Her areas of interest are in the financial sector, data analysis and data interpretation. Annapurna Mitra Annapurna Mitra is a Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, where she ABOUT THE AUTHORS leads the Green Transitions Initiative at the Centre for New Economic Diplomacy. Annapurna’s areas of interest include the economics of climate change, sustainable production models and innovation policy. She has earlier worked on economic diplomacy — first, with the G20 team in the International Economic Relations Division at the Indian Ministry of Finance, and then as Deputy Head of Economics at the British High Commission in Delhi. Her doctoral research at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva, focused on macroeconomic policy, specifically looking at how federal institutions and political incentives interact to create sub-optimal fiscal outcomes for Indian states. Arjun Jayakumar Arjun Jayakumar is an Associate Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, where he works with the Cyber Initiative, a part of the larger Technology and Media team. Before joining ORF, Arjun was associated with Software Freedom Law Centre, India, where he wrote extensively on issues affecting digital civil liberties and represented the organisation at domestic and international policy forums. He has also published research reports on intermediary liability, communications surveillance and online harassment. 7 Jackline Kagume Jackline Kagume is a Programme Officer at the Institute of Economic Affairs Kenya, with experience in policy research and legislative development. She has undertaken research and significant policy engagement on governance, accountability and parliamentary strengthening. She currently heads the programme on Constitution, Law and the Economy at the IEA. John Mutua John Mutua is a Programmes Coordinator at the Institute of Economic Affairs Kenya, with a wealth of experience in public finance management and in general macroeconomics. On these subjects, he has conducted research and public policy analysis, reviewed related legislations, authored publications and facilitated numerous budget and general economic literacy fora for civil society organisations and parliamentarians. Kwame Owino ABOUT THE AUTHORS Kwame Owino is the Chief Executive Officer of the Institute of Economic Affairs Kenya, a think tank based in Nairobi. Prior to his appointment as CEO, he was Head of Programmes from 2008 to 2012 and undertook research and public engagement in the Economic Regulation and Competition Policy programme of the IEA. Besides research, he has taught Economic Analysis of Law for two years at a leading private university in Kenya. Leo Kipkogei Kemboi Leo Kipkogei Kemboi is an Assistant Programme Officer for the programme on Constitution, Law and the Economy at the Institute of Economic Affairs Kenya. Leo has vast experience in public policy research and legislative development. He undertakes research on governance, development economics, labour economics, economic regulation and public finance. Maureen Barasa Maureen Barasa is a Research Assistant at the Institute of Economic Affairs Kenya with experience in public policy research, economic regulation and data analysis. Maureen has undertaken research in labour economic and economic policy. 8 Meghna Chadha Meghna Chadha is a Researcher with the Economy and Growth Programme and the Centre for New Economic Diplomacy at the Observer Research Foundation. Her research interests include behavioural economics, the future of work, AI and technology for development, sustainable development and the SDGs. She helps curate ORF’s flagship forums — Kigali Global Dialogue, Dhaka Global Dialogue, and the Asian Forum on Global Governance. Meghna has previously