DRAFT NATIONAL SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT FRAMEWORK APRIL 2019 7 Table of Contents LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 6 LIST OF TABLES .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 11 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ........................................................................................................................................................................... 12 GLOSSARY OF TERMS ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 15 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 22 PART ONE: Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 23 1.1 Setting the Scene ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 24 1.2 The National Transformation Logic & Space .................................................................................................................................................................... 24 1.3 Taking Stock: National Spatial Development and the need for a NSDF ............................................................................................................................. 26 1.3.1 Where do we come from and what needs to be done and undone? .......................................................................................................................................................... 26 1.3.2 What have we accomplished and what more needs to be done? ............................................................................................................................................................... 28 1.3.3 International Precedent and Experience ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 33 1.4 The NSDF as Tool for National Spatial Development and Transformation ........................................................................................................................ 34 1.4.1 The NSDF’s Mandate .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 34 1.4.2 The NSDF’s Purpose, Focus and Content ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 34 1.4.3 The NSDF’s Theory of Change ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 35 1.5 Document Structure ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 38 PART TWO: The Draft NSDF Preparation Process ..................................................................................................................................................... 39 2.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 40 2.2 Preparatory Work and Research Phase ............................................................................................................................................................................ 40 2.3 Spatial Analysis and Proposals Phase ............................................................................................................................................................................... 40 2.3.1 Foundational Work ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 40 2.3.2 Preliminary Sharing and Testing .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 41 2.4 Draft NSDF Phase ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 41 2.5 Cabinet Submission Phase ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 41 PART THREE: National Spatial Development Shapers ............................................................................................................................................... 43 3.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 44 3.2 Demographic Shifts, Dividends, Vulnerabilities and Diversity .......................................................................................................................................... 44 3.3 Urbanisation, the Pursuit of a Better Life and a Desire for Quality Urban Living and Spaces ............................................................................................. 51 3.4 Ruralisation and the Need for Decisive and Sustainable Rural Development and Agrarian Reform .................................................................................. 53 3.5 Natural Resource Limitations, a Move Away from Ecosystem Destruction, Pollution and a National Water Security Crisis .............................................. 54 3.6 Climate Change Implications, Regional Adaptation and Mitigation .................................................................................................................................. 55 3.7 Land Reform .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 65 3.8 Dependency on Natural Resource Extraction and Related Economic Activities ................................................................................................................ 65 3.9 Technology, Innovation, Resilience and Disruptions in the Space Economy ..................................................................................................................... 66 3.10 Globalisation, Supra-National Regionalisation, Gateway Nodes and National Connectivity and Integration ................................................................. 72 3.11 Institutional Weaknesses and Fragmentation and Prospects for National Developmental Action ................................................................................. 73 3.12 Key National Spatial Development Dynamics, Challenges and Opportunities ............................................................................................................... 80 PART FOUR: National Spatial Development Vision, Logic, Levers and Outcomes ...................................................................................................... 82 4.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 83 National Spatial Development Framework Draft 2019 3 4.2 The National Spatial Development Vision ........................................................................................................................................................................ 83 4.3 The National Spatial Development Logic ......................................................................................................................................................................... 83 4.3.1 The NDP as Guide and Driver ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 84 4.3.2 The