Crossing Boundaries in Science The Mystery of Risks – How Can Science Help Reconcile Perception and Assessment? Documentation of the conference held by the Joint Committee on the Handling of Security-Relevant Research 4–6 July 2019 Potsdam, Germany Imprint Crossing Boundaries in Science The Mystery of Risks – How Can Science Help Reconcile Perception and Assessment? Documentation of the conference held by the Joint Committee on the Handling of Security-Relevant Research 4–6 July 2019 in Potsdam, Germany Publisher Britta Siegmund and Bärbel Friedrich on behalf of the German National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina and the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) Editorial office Lena Diekmann and Johannes Fritsch Office of the Joint Committee on the Handling of Security-Relevant Research German National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina Publishers’ note The presentations and discussions were edited for readability and summarised. They do not not necessarily reflect the position of the Joint Committee, the Leopldina and the German Research Foundation. Contact Office of the Joint Committee on the Handling of Security-Relevant Research German National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina Head: Johannes Fritsch Reinhardstraße 14, 10117 Berlin Tel.: +49 30 2038997-420 [email protected] www.leopoldina.org/de/gemeinsamer-ausschuss Title graphic Sisters of Design – Anja Krämer & Claudia Dölling (Halle/Saale) Design and typesetting Studio Grau (Berlin) Print druckhaus köthen Sponsored by Alfried Krupp von Bohlen und Halbach-Stiftung ©2020 German National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina Jägerberg 1, 06108 Halle (Germany) ISBN 978-3-8047-4180-5 DOI 10.24395/01_00211 Crossing Boundaries in Science The Mystery of Risks – How Can Science Help Reconcile Perception and Assessment? Thursday, 4 July 2019 Potsdam Museum, Am Alten Markt 9, D-14467 Potsdam Friday, 5 July – Saturday, 6 July 2019 Hotel Mercure, Lange Brücke, D-14467 Potsdam Contents Summary 4 Keynote Lecture 10 LENGAUER, Thomas: Introduction 11 RENN, Ortwin: The Risk Perspective – Coping with Uncertainty 13 in a Complex World Welcoming Address 32 FRIEDRICH, Bärbel 32 Session 1: How Risks Are Socially Constructed 34 SCHRÖDER, Martin: The Paradox of the Risk Society 35 PETERS, Ellen: Risk as Feelings and Perception Matters 44 Session 2: Limits of Assessing and Communicating Risk 54 TALEB, Nassim Nicholas: Foundations of the Precautionary 55 Principle and What is Wrong with Empirical Psychology SORNETTE, Didier: Scientific Diagnostic of Global Financial 71 Markets and Economies: What Risks and Growth Does it Bode for the Future? Session 3: Commonly Over- and Underestimated Risks 82 BÖL, Gaby-Fleur: Between Phlegm and Panic – Underestimated 83 versus Overestimated Risks BETSCH, Cornelia: How to Advocate for Vaccination in a 93 Climate of Science Denial DIETER, Heribert: Can China Trigger a Crisis of Globalisation? 102 Session 4: Assessing Existential Risks 110 Student Rapporteurs 111 MAROTZKE, Jochem: The Challenge of Climate Change 118 WIELER, Lothar H.: What is the Real Threat of Pandemics? 125 Session 5: Coping with Risks 138 PETERSON, Garry: How to Cope with Extreme Global Events 139 and Strengthen Societies’ Resilience Student Rapporteurs 149 HERTWIG, Ralph: How to Improve Risk Literacy? 154 Short CVs (Speakers and Chairs) 164 Summary Summary Lena Diekmann, Johannes Fritsch Joint Committee on the Handling of Security-Relevant Research The conference format ‘Crossing Boundaries in Science’ of the German National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina is meant to stimulate discussions between areas of research that are particularly dependent on new forms of interdisci- plinary cooperation and method transfer. The first international conference, entitled ‘Modelling Nature and Society – Can We Control the World?’ took place in Weimar in June 2016. Its objective was to provide an overview and discuss current attempts to understand and control complex systems in nature and society using scientific modelling. The second international conference took place in Potsdam in July 2019. It was organised by the Joint Committee on the Handling of Security- Relevant Research and focused on the role of science in the perception, assess- ment and handling of risks in our increasingly complex world. This includes the frequent overestimation of certain risks associated, for example, with terrorism, vaccination and genetic engineering as well as the prevalent underestimation of risks associated with common causes of destruction, illness and death. The scientific community attempting to assess and communicate these risks on the basis of scientific evidence is often confronted with great challenges since public risk perception systematically follows more subjective and emotional principles. This systematic misjudgement of risks often leads to irrational individual and socio-political decisions. The conference was accompanied by the student workshop ‘Risk Gover nance and the Role of Science and Humanities’. 15 Master and PhD students from various countries and disciplines came together to discuss and share their scientific access to risk. Participants were selected by the Joint Committee on the Handling of Security-Relevant Research and provided with travel funds. Led by Filippa Lentzos and Johannes Fritsch, the workshop introduced the students to the general aims and tasks of the Joint Committee as well as the topics of the conference. This prepared the students for active participation in the conference and offered a lively scope of discussion. 5 Summary Participants of the Leopoldina students’ workshop ‘Risk Governance and the Role of Science and Humanities’ on 4 July in Potsdam. Over the three-day conference 18 scientists from fields including sociology, economy, philosophy, psychology, medicine, meteorology, and biology discussed the following questions: • How are risks socially constructed? • What are commonly underestimated and overestimated risks? • Did our lives get riskier or do we simply know too much about potential risks to handle them objectively? • What are positive as well as negative consequences of the misperception of risks? • Does the precautionary principle hinder innovation and progress? • Do we face more complex risks in times of globalisation? • What are the origins, probabilities and time scales of certain risks and how can we reliably assess these with scientific tools? • How can science help to reconcile the systematic misperception of risk and promote evidence-based policy in this context? • What are short-term and long-term strategies to mitigate risks? • How can we foster the risk literacy and resilience of individuals and society? 6 CROSSING BOUNDARIES IN SCIENCE Summary The answers to these questions which are presented in the edited and sum- marised documentation below are, naturally, as diverse as the fields of study represented. To give a short introductory overview: Ortwin RENN (Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies) illustrates the distinctions between conventional risks and systemic risks. Despite their potential severity systemic risks often do not get the attention they deserve. Although they are not well understood due to their high complexity, trans- boundary effects, stochastic relationships, and nonlinear cause-effect patterns with tipping points, they represent a far greater threat as they create new, unsolved challenges for policy makers in risk governance. Martin SCHRÖDER (Philipps-Universität Marburg) introduces us to the paradox of risk society and discusses what twists our minds into the faulty perception of a more menacing and riskier world while measurable indicators of the quality of life are actually improving. He calls for media to transform the problem- oriented coverage into a more data-driven reporting, which puts crimes that are occurring with ever less frequency into a long-term perspective. Ellen PETERS (University of Oregon) explores how risk perceptions are con- structed through the psychology of individuals and their social influences. By presenting the concept of the affect heuristic, she describes how emotions act as cues by spotlighting information and thus can serve as efficient mental shortcuts for navigating the world’s complexity. Nassim Nicholas TALEB (New York University) discusses two flaws in conven- tional risk analyses when translated to the real world: 1) missing dynamics and ergodicity and 2) using thin-tailed distributions. He shows that many psycho logical biases seen negatively, such as mental accounting, become rational and optimal under multiplicative dynamics. He further argues that asym metric reactions such as paranoia (and overestimation of tail proba bil- ities) are entirely justified under the right conditions. Didier SORNETTE (ETH Zurich) dissects the causes and mechanisms of cata- strophic failures for the industry sector, such as the explosion of the Deep- water Horizon and the Challenger disaster, as well as for the global financial crisis. Common to these examples is that dangerous conditions that had the potential to escalate to a critical level were known from the beginning. 7 Summary Practical solutions for the efficient and timely transmission of information on risks are risk analysis, accumulation of knowledge about risks, decision- making and rewarding the process of communication and not only success. Gaby-Fleur BÖL (The German Federal Institute for Risk Assessment) specifies that a clear understanding of how risks are perceived and of which factors influence risk perception