Symposium THEBUILDINGON RETREAT OFPEACEBUILDING THE DEMO CRATICPEACE MODEL INFarewell AND Symposium ECONOMICLectorate International Peace, Justice and Security of Prof. dr. Joris Voorhoeve CHANGEAMONG15 March 2018 AS CONDITIONSTATESThe Hague University of Applied Sciences FOR PEACE W1802 0641 A5 boekje Symposium 02-18.indd 1 08-03-18 13:10 2 | Symposium On Building Peace W1802 0641 A5 boekje Symposium 02-18.indd 2 08-03-18 13:10 List of contents Building Peace In and Among States 4 Joris Voorhoeve The Retreat of the Democratic Model: 8 Implications for the Democratic Peace Mihaela Anghel Economic Change as Condition for Peace 14 Reitse Keizer 3 The Hague University of Applied Sciences 2018 | W1802 0641 A5 boekje Symposium 02-18.indd 3 08-03-18 13:10 JORIS VOORHOEVE Joris Voorhoeve (1945) is Fellow of THUAS and Emeritus Professor of International Organizations at Leiden University. He was minister of Defence and of Netherlands-Antillean and Aruban Affairs, Member of the Council of State and floor leader of the Liberal Party. He taught International Relations at the universities of Wageningen and Antwerp and the Netherlands Defence College. He chaired Oxfam Novib, Oxfam International and was Vice-Chair of the Global Partnership for the Prevention or Armed Conflict. Contact: [email protected] 4 | Symposium On Building Peace W1802 0641 A5 boekje Symposium 02-18.indd 4 08-03-18 13:10 Building Peace In and Among States Joris Voorhoeve March 2018 The Chinese general Sun Tzu wrote about avoids becoming suppressive, peace can 2500 years ago in The Art of War that a be maintained, and all participating political smart general does not fight but takes entities can contribute to maintaining security political and military positions in such when dealing with external threats. Since 1945, a way that his challengers refrain from this is the Pax Americana which Europe enjoys violent resistance. That is still good advice and which we took for granted untill recently. for national and international politics. But the hegemonic US is losing authority, wisdom and preponderance, at least in the What I want to briefly analyze is how the short run, and perhaps longer. What can we peaceful order which we enjoy in do to make it last? The Netherlands and most of Europe can be preserved, both within and among states. The second theoretical approach is balance Preventing violent aggression is the crucial of power. Inside a state this requires strong task of all governments. The art of war is to constitutional provisions and an equilibrium prevent war, while avoiding capitulation and among various domestic institutions. But oppression. balance of power does not work well at the international level, among states, as side We live in a world which is full of war and the A may interpret an increase in defenses threat of it. History shows a seeming endless of B as preparation for aggression. In an repetition of wars, interrupted by periods of international balance of power system there peace. In Western Europe, we enjoy peace is no enforcement of international public law since 1945, that is 72 years, as long as I live. by a strong world authority. Balance of power This is an unusually long peace. The task of systems may break down, as we learn from statecraft is to make peace last as long as the First World War, and they give rise to an possible, while preserving liberty and a high arms race, as we learn from the Cold War. So degree of justice and wellbeing. this is no safe solution to maintaining peace. Political science offers several theories on The third approach is collective security, as preserving peace. The classics wrote that a was tried after the First and the Second World stable rule-of-law state needs a monopoly War. This system requires that all political on coercive power to enforce peace and entities share in maintaining peace and the rule of law. This solution to civil war can enforcing law, led by a world sheriff, embodied be compared at the international level to an in the Council of the League of Nations or empire or an alliance led by a hegemon. The the UN Security Council. This is comparable hegemon needs large resources and a strong to the Wild West in the US in the 19th century: will to maintain the regional system around the government is far away, but all ranchers him. If the hegemon guides the member with guns should go after the bank robber if states in a strong and just fashion, allowing the sheriff calls on them. This seldom works the participating units much autonomy and internationally, which explains the failure of 5 The Hague University of Applied Sciences 2018 | W1802 0641 A5 boekje Symposium 02-18.indd 5 08-03-18 13:10 the League and the UN in the 20th century. from a deficit in leadership and government The sheriff and his posse also did not income. Most European allies run a deficit guarantee law and justice in the Wild West, in their defense contributions to common as many ranchers and militia participated security. Some Eastern members and Turkey in genocide of native Indians. One cannot suffer from a deficit in democratic rule of count of the UN to guarantee rule of law, even law. Still, the Pax Americana is on average though it can be of help in smaller states when the best place to live, in terms of freedom, the veto-holding states do not block action. well-being and security. This also applies to some countries outside the North Atlantic The fourth approach to maintaining peace area, like Japan, South Korea, Australia and is very different: functional cooperation New Zealand. They are somewhat related to among political entities to serve common the Pax Americana. needs, weave a web of economic and technical organizations over all, in order that An indicator that the Pax Americana offers self-interest in maintaining peace becomes a good future is the road taken by most so strong that nobody wants to tear the refugees. People vote with their feet. It fabric apart by war. This approach became needs little academic proof that the Pax famous after the Second World War and Americana is worth preserving, but badly in led to countless organizations, both on a need of improvement. global scale and regionally in the form of the European Union. It has worked well in Western Preservation takes quite an effort, as the Europe, but many East European leaders system is in decay. I need not repeat the and nationalist parties in Western Europe prime weaknesses of the hegemon: its resist nowadays. If one wants to compare present leader and huge deficit. Increasing this functionalist approach in international inequality of income and property among affairs to national peacebuilding, it may its citizens worsen this, as happens also be somewhat comparable to the Social in many European countries. Tax aversion, Contract which makes a state work for consumerism, demoralization of democratic the well-being of its population, but only if citizenship, short term electoral gains, group there is a strong consensus. conflicts and authoritarianism are some of the many factors sapping the cohesion of During the 72 years since 1945, the peoples the system. The very success of decades living in the North Atlantic region have of social- , Christian-democratic and liberal successfully combined three of these four statecraft in the region attracts large migration approaches: hegemonic alliance, balance from failing states and wars outside it, which of power against the former Soviet Union, is a threat to social cohesion. The return of and functional cooperation. The overarching Russia to an arms race since 1999, stirring North Atlantic Security Community which regional wars around it, and the rapid rise arose consists of North America and most of China as a very productive non-liberal of Europe, excepting Russia and most of empire based on state capitalism, are serious Southeastern Europe. challenges. If present trends continue, the But the North Atlantic system, which grew in North Atlantic Security Community will weaken size, is weakening. Its leader, the US, suffers further and lose leadership to China. 6 | Symposium On Building Peace W1802 0641 A5 boekje Symposium 02-18.indd 6 08-03-18 13:10 Several therapies are being advocated. New Will the world see new big power wars, due populist nationalism will worsen the decay, as it to an increasing number of states with highly would break down the system from the inside. destructive new weapons, cyber and hybrid Encouragement of rapid economic growth and war, arms in outer space, nuclear arms and unrestrained economic globalization to satisfy automated weapons? These might sooner or consumers and producers will undermine the later cause a disaster by intent or accident. natural environment and increase economic inequality. Reducing development cooperation Surely, the competition among the giants will increase massive unemployment outside in the multipolar system like China, the the region and increase migratory pressures. North Atlantic region, India and Russia Tampering with representative democracy may will continue, and may get more intense in lead to slower formation of effective policies the quest for resources and political and and cater to the less-educated, ethnocratic economic power. But there is no law of and religious groupings. It seems to me these nature that forces them to make war, other are the answers that are likely to fail. than serious misperceptions and serious policy mistakes. In this situation I know of no There is some hope that the present lack of better policy than to continue improving the American leadership will encourage the EU to Pax Americana system, and the European become a stronger world player.