Drakenstein Municipality 2017 DRAKENSTEIN: AT A GLANCE 1. DEMOGRAPHICS 1 2. EDUCATION 3 3. HEALTH 7 4. POVERTY 12 5. BASIC SERVICE DELIVERY 15 6. SAFETY AND SECURITY 19 7. THE ECONOMY 24 8. INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT 28 SOURCES 33 Drakenstein: At a Glance Population Estimates, 2018; Actual households, 2016 273 066 71 686 2016 2016 Matric Pass Rate 86.7% Gini Coefficient 0.59 Learner-Teacher Ratio 36.5 Human Development Index 0.71 Gr 12 Drop-out Rate 26.0% 2016 16 78.3% 0.0 5.5% Percentage change between 2016 and 2017 in number of reported cases per 100 000 -1.4% -2.8% 19.0% 57.9% 1.6% Percentage of households with access to basic services, 2016 99.5% 90.6% 94.5% 98.4% 90.3% 2016 2016 Drought 53 Unemployment Rate Financial Sustainability (Grant dependency) 61 14.9% Stagnating Economic Growth Contribution to GDP, 2015 Finance, insurance, real estate Wholesale and retail trade, Manufacturing and business services catering and accommodation 21.2% 17.7% 16.1% 1 DEMOGRAPHICS Department of Health, 2016 This first chapter of the SEP focusses on the people living in Drakenstein itself. A demographic perspective on a municipality allows to observe not only simple changes in population growth, but also to look at other various developments that influence the social life of every citizen. Demographics allow to emphasise aspects of society like, e.g. gender, race, migration or life expectancy. Decisions made by politicians as well as by the administration affect in almost every case at least one aspect of Demographics. Therefore, a good understanding of this area is crucial for the government’s work. The overview of key demographic factors given in this chapter comprises of the estimates of population size, the distribution of population within age cohorts and furthermore the dependency ratio, which is of high importance for understanding economic activity in the area as well as for planning welfare systems. With this short, but informative overview, the SEP tries to help the municipalities in their budgeting process by delivering precise data as a solid foundation for future decisions. Data source: Department of Social Development, 2017 Contribution to GDP, 2016 1 2017 Socio-economic Profile: Drakenstein Municipality POPULATION 350 000 300 000 250 000 200 000 150 000 100 000 50 000 0 Breede Valley Drakenstein Langeberg Stellenbosch Witzenberg 2018 179 550 273 066 104 289 176 523 130 607 2019 181 259 275 980 105 159 179 463 132 542 2020 182 941 278 791 106 013 182 372 134 444 2021 184 576 281 498 106 862 185 216 136 295 2022 186 182 284 087 107 708 187 983 138 107 2023 187 723 286 563 108 539 190 680 139 872 According to the estimates of the Department of Social Development, the population of Drakenstein is expected to expand rapidly across the next 5 years. As per above, the population will grow from 273 066 people in 2018 to 286 563 in 2023 which equates to a 1.0 per cent year-on-year growth rate. This rate is relatively lower than that of the District as a whole (1.4 per cent). AGE COHORTS Children: Working Age: Aged: Dependency Year 0 - 14 Years 15 - 65 Years 65 + Ratio 2011 64 293 173 839 13 137 44.5 2018 70 386 185 403 17 278 47.3 2023 72 085 193 185 21 294 48.3 The above table depicts the population composition regarding age cohorts. The total population is broken down into three different groups: Age 0 - 14: children; Age 15 - 65: working age population; Age 65+: seniors. A comparison between the 2018 and 2023 estimates show a sharp increase in the number of people within the working age and aged cohorts whilst the children grouping only increases marginally across the same reference period. The relative small increase in the child cohort attest of potential lower birth-rates which will in future impact upon the working age and over time increase the dependency ratio. A higher dependency ratio means increased pressure on social systems and the delivery of basic services. 2 2017 Socio-economic Profile: Drakenstein Municipality 2 EDUCATION Education and training improves access to employment opportunities and helps to sustain and accelerate overall development. It expands the range of options available from which a person can choose to create opportunities for a fulfilling life. Through indirect positive effects on health and life expectancy, the level of education of a population also influences its welfare. Data source: Western Cape Education Department, 2017 3 2017 Socio-economic Profile: Drakenstein Municipality LEARNER ENROLMENT 50 000 45 000 40 000 35 000 30 000 25 000 20 000 15 000 10 000 5 000 0 Drakenstein Langeberg Stellenbosch Witzenberg Breede Valley 2014 46 474 17 226 25 274 18 038 32 076 2015 46 988 17 499 26 129 18 181 32 466 2016 47 601 17 838 26 085 18 048 32 558 Learners within the Cape Winelands District are largely concentrated within the Drakenstein region where enrolment figures increased by 2.4 per cent between 2014 and 2016. This growth attests to improved access to education. LEARNER-TEACHER RATIO The learner-teacher ratio in Drakenstein increased significantly from 28.8 in 2014 to 36.3 in 2015, but remained relatively the same between 2015 and 2016 (36.5). The increase between 2014 and 2015 is nonetheless a case of concern as it is commonly assumed that children receive less personalised attention in larger class environments and that high learner-teacher ratios are detrimental to improved educational outcomes. GRADE 12 DROP-OUT RATES A total of 26.0 per cent of students that enrolled in Grade 10 in 2014 dropped out of school by the time they reached Grade 12 in 2016. Although this number is alarmingly high, it is a slight improvement from the 2015 drop-out rate of 27.1 per cent. These high levels of drop-outs are influenced by a wide array of economic factors including unemployment, poverty, indigent households, high levels of households with no income or rely on less than R515 a month and teenage pregnancies. 4 2017 Socio-economic Profile: Drakenstein Municipality EDUCATIONAL FACILITIES The availability of adequate education facilities such as schools, FET colleges and schools equipped with libraries and media centres could affect academic outcomes positively. 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Number of Schools with Libraries Total Number of Schools 2014 48 68 2015 49 68 2016 49 68 There were 68 schools within the greater Drakenstein area in 2014 of which 48 had functional libraries. Although the number of schools have remained unchanged ever since, one additional school was equipped with a library in 2015. The unchanged number of schools does however appear problematic in the face of rising population numbers which will in time also increase the demand for quality education. 100,0% 90,0% 80,0% 70,0% 60,0% 50,0% 40,0% 30,0% 20,0% 10,0% 0,0% Breede Valley Drakenstein Langeberg Stellenbosch Witzenberg 2014 80,4% 67,7% 87,3% 65,0% 84,9% 2015 80,4% 67,7% 87,3% 65,0% 84,9% 2016 77,6% 67,7% 87,3% 64,1% 83,3% The above graph depicts the number of no-fee schools within the various local municipalities of the Cape Winelands District. In Drakenstein, 68.0 per cent of all schools in 2016 were considered to be no-fee schools, which bodes well to improve access to education for people from poorer communities. With the exception of Stellenbosch, Drakenstein does however have the lowest number of no-fee schools in the District. 5 2017 Socio-economic Profile: Drakenstein Municipality EDUCATION OUTCOMES Education remains one of the key avenues through which the state is involved in the economy. In preparing individuals for future engagements in the broader market, policy decisions and choices in the sphere of education play a critical role in determining the extent to which future economy and poverty reduction plans can be realised. This section measures the matric pass rates within the Cape Winelands District. 100,00% 90,00% 80,00% 70,00% 60,00% 50,00% 40,00% 30,00% 20,00% 10,00% 0,00% Drakenstein Langeberg Stellenbosch Witzenberg Breede Valley 2014 83,80% 84,20% 87,20% 75,10% 82,10% 2015 86,70% 84,50% 85,60% 72,50% 82,40% 2016 86,70% 85,70% 86,90% 74,50% 84,20% Matric pass rates within Drakenstein increased between 2014 (83.8 per cent) and 2015 (86.7 per cent), but remained unchanged in 2016. Together with Stellenbosch, the Municipality enjoys the highest pass rate in the District. The increase in the pass rate drastically improves access to higher education opportunities which will in time satisfy the increased demand for semi and highly-skilled labour. 6 2017 Socio-economic Profile: Drakenstein Municipality 3 HEALTH Health is another major factor contributing to the general quality of life in Drakenstein. It is therefore for the municipality important to monitor the public health facilities as well as a variety of factors as diseases like HIV or TB and general topics that affect the community, like maternal health. This Socio-economic Profile provides the basic statistics concerning those issues. Since this profile focusses on the public health facilities, private facilities do not appear in it. Data source: Department of Health, 2017 7 2017 Socio-economic Profile: Drakenstein Municipality HEALTHCARE FACILITIES All citizens’ right to access to healthcare services are directly affected by the number and spread of facilities within their geographical reach.