L E S S I S MORE: Energy Security After Oil David Olivier with Andy Simmonds Acknowledgements We gratefully acknowledge comments and help with figures and sources, including from David Andrews, Stephen Andrews, Bill Bordass, Alan Clarke, Bob Everett, Nick Grant, Phil Jones, Bob Lowe, William Orchard, Richard Priestley, Mark Siddall, Fionn Stevenson, Gordon Taylor and David Toke. Such contributions are much appreciated. But any remaining errors are ours alone. We acknowledge too the leading research, development and demonstration programs on energy efficiency and renewable energy funded by national or local governments since 1974, along with private sector work which was catalysed by this public sector enthusiasm and implicit support. These funders include inter alia many federal and local governments, especially in the USA, Canada, Sweden, Denmark, Switzerland, Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, Norway and Finland. These contributions continue to this day. Without them, one would not be so positive about the feasibility of a sustainable energy future. We also thank those on the above list who took the time to review this report, especially Bob Lowe. They provided very useful comments indeed, which greatly helped to improve both the content and the presentation. In addition, we are extremely grateful to Will Anderson for his help in writing an executive summary which succinctly sums up a complex message. David Olivier and Andy Simmonds, January 2012 Cover photograph: Earth’s atmosphere viewed edge on from space. Image courtesy of NASA About the Authors David Olivier is Principal of Energy Advisory Associates, a consultancy focusing on the application of energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies in buildings. Over the past 30 years he has assisted in the design of hundreds of low energy buildings including the Elizabeth Fry Building at the University of East Anglia, the headquarters of Disability Essex in Rochford and many dwellings for private clients. He has written extensively on energy efficiency and renewable energy in buildings and has taken a particular interest in advanced building practice in mainland Europe, Scandinavia and North America. His books include Energy Efficiency and Renewables: Recent Experience on Mainland Europe and Energy Efficiency and Renewables: Recent North American Experience. Andrew Simmonds is a Partner in Simmonds.Mills Architects and part-time Chief Executive of AECB, The Sustainable Building Association. His architectural and building experience covers historic buildings, innovative and traditional materials and the development of energy efficiency products for the mass market. Simmonds.Mills Architects designs low-energy domestic and non- domestic projects to the AECB Silver, Passivhaus and EnerPHit energy standards. Andrew led the development of the AECB energy standards and initiated the AECB CarbonLite programme. He also led the AECB team supporting the Technology Strategy Board‟s „Retrofit for the Future‟ competition, including developing the low energy buildings database, and was closely involved in setting up the Passivhaus Trust to bring to the mainstream the work of AECB CarbonLite. LESS IS MORE owes a good deal to a series of three earlier reports which appeared after the 1970s‟ first and second oil crises. These studies were in part government-funded: An Alternative Energy Scenario for the UK 1 A Low Energy Strategy for the UK 2 and Energy-Efficient Futures: Opening the Solar Option. 3 LIM is written in the context of other recent studies of the UK‟s energy future, which include: Zero Carbon Britain 2030 4 Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air 5 and Scenarios for 2050 - A Key Scene Setting Report. 6 2 Disclaimer AECB Ltd. and the authors consider that the information and opinions given in this work are sound, but all parties must rely upon their own skill and judgment when making use of it. Neither AECB Ltd. nor the authors make any representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report, and they assume no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information. Neither AECB Ltd. nor the authors assume any liability to anyone for any loss or damage arising out of the provision of this report. Throughout this report, the copyright holders are acknowledged wherever possible in relation to individual pictures and charts, and AECB is grateful for their permission to use their material. Where no acknowledgement is made, a chart should be attributed to the authors. If any errors have been made, AECB apologises to those affected and would be glad to correct the mistake(s) in a subsequent edition. 3 Contents Foreword ....................................................................................................... 7 Executive Summary ........................................................................................... 9 1. Climate Change Policy ................................................................................ 23 Targets ................................................................................................. 23 Mitigation Measures .................................................................................. 25 A GHG Balance Sheet ................................................................................. 29 2. Energy Economics - The Coming Age of Scarcity? ................................................ 33 An Essential Input ..................................................................................... 33 Peak Fossil Fuels ...................................................................................... 35 Future Energy Supply ................................................................................. 37 Whole System Costs .................................................................................. 38 Policy Implications .................................................................................... 45 3. Improved Energy Efficiency .......................................................................... 49 The Resource .......................................................................................... 49 Abating CO2 Emissions at a Profit? .................................................................. 50 UK Energy Use ......................................................................................... 52 Heating and Cooling .................................................................................. 56 Essential Electricity .................................................................................. 62 Catering ................................................................................................ 67 Case Study - Dwellings in London ................................................................... 68 The Rebound Effect .................................................................................. 72 4. Energy Supply - Where From? ....................................................................... 75 Introduction ........................................................................................... 75 System Scale ........................................................................................... 76 Energy Storage ........................................................................................ 77 Future Energy Vectors ................................................................................ 78 Ways Forward ......................................................................................... 82 Heat Supply ............................................................................................ 84 Fuel Supply ............................................................................................ 89 Essential Electricity Supply .......................................................................... 94 4 5. Building a New Energy Policy ...................................................................... 100 Leading Question .................................................................................... 100 Current Policy ....................................................................................... 101 Tempting Offers ..................................................................................... 107 A Policy Shift ........................................................................................ 110 Choices? .............................................................................................. 113 6. Financing Energy Efficiency in Buildings ......................................................... 116 Introduction ......................................................................................... 116 Energy Consumers .................................................................................. 116 Energy Suppliers .................................................................................... 118 More Efficient Use of Electricity .................................................................. 125 Space and Water Heating .......................................................................... 127 7. International Good and Best Practice ............................................................ 131 Examples ............................................................................................. 131 Denmark .............................................................................................. 131 California ............................................................................................