Cold and Calculated Faith Religion and Intra-State Conflict in Eastern Europe and Central Asia Dustin M. Gamza Duke University, Durham, NC Political Science Undergraduate Honors Thesis March 31, 2011 Advisor: Timur Kuran Abstract The former USSR and the Eastern Bloc contain a plethora of ethnicities, religions, and languages that make up nations. However, the nations are not concurrent with their state boundaries, and separatist conflicts are common. This thesis demonstrates that when the conflicts are drawn around religious cleavages, tactics used by both sides result in a greater loss of life. This is due, it suggests, to the ability of religious institutions to solve intragroup collective action problems, and in the case of post-communist states in particular, to serve as a surrogate and more potent form of nationalism for groups disenchanted with nationalist discourse. Additionally, the thesis explores whether, in cases where the two sides have drastically different religious preferences, separatists are less likely to accept a compromise as resolution, such as federal autonomy within the parent state or economic, civil and political rights concessions. Thus, the duration of the conflict will be extended. Case studies support both claims, while regression analysis supports the conflict intensity claim. Gamza With many thanks to my father and Stephanie, for encouragement and support, and to my advisor, Professor Kuran, whose comments and guidance made this thesis possible. 2 Gamza Table of Contents Sec 1: Introduction................................................................................................................................. 5 Sec. 2: Literature Critique....................................................................................................................... 8 Sec. 2.1: Rejectionists................................................................................................................................... 11 Sec. 2.2: Ethno-centrists............................................................................................................................... 13 Sec. 2.3: Islamic Exceptionalists ................................................................................................................... 14 Sec. 2.4: Religious Conflictualists ................................................................................................................. 16 Sec. 2.4.1: “Holy War” Theorists.............................................................................................................. 16 Sec. 2.4.2: Institutionalists....................................................................................................................... 18 Sec 2.5: Theories on Post-Communist Ethnic Conflict ................................................................................. 26 Sec 2.6: Voids in the Literature .................................................................................................................... 28 Sec. 3: Theory .......................................................................................................................................29 Sec 3.1: Doctrine and Religious Violence ..................................................................................................... 30 Sec 3.2: Religion in the Eastern Europe........................................................................................................ 34 Sec 3.2.1: Eastern Orthodox Christianity ................................................................................................. 34 Sec 3.2.2: Islam........................................................................................................................................ 36 Sec 3.2.3: Other Major Religious Traditions ............................................................................................ 37 Sec 3.3: Hypotheses ..................................................................................................................................... 37 Sec 3.3.1: Intensity................................................................................................................................... 40 Sec 3.3.2: Duration .................................................................................................................................. 44 Sec 3.4: Religion as a Surrogate “Banal Nationalism” .................................................................................. 46 Sec 4: Methods .....................................................................................................................................50 Sec 4.1: Dependent Variables ...................................................................................................................... 52 Sec 4.2: Independent Variables.................................................................................................................... 52 Sec 4.2.1: Control Variables..................................................................................................................... 55 Sec 5: Analysis.......................................................................................................................................56 Sec 5.1: The Models ..................................................................................................................................... 57 Sec 5.1.1: Intensity................................................................................................................................... 58 Sec 5.1.2: Duration .................................................................................................................................. 63 Sec 5.2: Problems......................................................................................................................................... 68 Sec 6: Case Studies................................................................................................................................70 Sec 6.1: Russia/Chechnya............................................................................................................................. 70 Sec 6.1.1: Religious History in Chechnya ................................................................................................. 71 Sec 6.1.2: Religion, Intensity, and Duration in Chechnya......................................................................... 73 Sec 6.2: Yugoslav States ............................................................................................................................... 81 Sec 6.2.1: Religious History in Yugoslavia................................................................................................ 81 Sec 6.2.2: Religion, Intensity, and Duration in Yugoslavia....................................................................... 85 Sec 6.3: Georgia ........................................................................................................................................... 94 Sec 6.3.1: History of the Conflict in South Ossetia ................................................................................... 94 Sec 6.3.2: Explaining Conflict Intensity and Duration in Georgia............................................................. 95 Appendix 1: Regional Tables ...............................................................................................................110 Appendix 2: Additional Statistics.........................................................................................................112 WorKs Cited ........................................................................................................................................113 3 Gamza Tables Table 1: Religious Cleavage Scale…………………………………………………………………………………………….p. 53 Table 2: Summary of Hierarchical Regression Analysis for Eastern European Conflict Intensity……p. 60 Table 3: Global Intensity Regression Summary………………………………………………………………………….p. 63 Table 4: Global Duration Regressions Summary………………………………………………………………………..p. 65 Table 5: Summary of Hypotheses……………………………………………………………………………………………p. 102 Figures Figure 1: Religious Effect on Conflict Duration……………………………………………………………………………...p. 50 Figure 2: Eastern Intensity Distribution……………………………………………………………………………………p. 58 Figure 3: Global Intensity Distribution……………………………………………………………………………………..p. 58 Figure 4: Global Duration Distribution…………………………………………………………………………………….p. 64 Figure 5: Eastern Duration Distribution……………………………………………………………………………….…p. 65 4 Gamza Sec 1: Introduction Prior to the secularization of Europe and the rise of nationalism in the 1700s, it was religion, not nationalism and patriotism, that often served as the mobilizing agent for politics, including movements of violence. In the 1700s, divinely ordained rule was invalidated and power became vested in the state and people, de jure through constitutions and de facto through nationalism tying the people to the fatherland or motherland. Religion in Western Europe became removed from politics as the world industrialized. It was an element of private rather than public life, heralded off by scholars such as Marx. While treating it as a characteristic as of ethnicity and nationalism, academic discourse assigned religion to an apolitical role and eventual obsolescence as an explanatory variable. However, in modern times it is obvious that religion has again become relevant, both as a response to encroaching westernization and as an acceptable basis for government. One would