NOAA HURRICANE FORECASTING HEARING BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED NINTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION OCTOBER 7, 2005 Serial No. 109–26 Printed for the use of the Committee on Science ( Available via the World Wide Web: http://www.house.gov/science U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 23–331PS WASHINGTON : 2006 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll free (866) 512–1800; DC area (202) 512–1800 Fax: (202) 512–2250 Mail: Stop SSOP, Washington, DC 20402–0001 VerDate 11-MAY-2000 15:47 Jul 08, 2006 Jkt 023331 PO 00000 Frm 00001 Fmt 5011 Sfmt 5011 C:\WORKD\FULL05\100705\23331 SCIENCE1 PsN: SCIENCE1 COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE HON. SHERWOOD L. BOEHLERT, New York, Chairman RALPH M. HALL, Texas BART GORDON, Tennessee LAMAR S. SMITH, Texas JERRY F. COSTELLO, Illinois CURT WELDON, Pennsylvania EDDIE BERNICE JOHNSON, Texas DANA ROHRABACHER, California LYNN C. WOOLSEY, California KEN CALVERT, California DARLENE HOOLEY, Oregon ROSCOE G. BARTLETT, Maryland MARK UDALL, Colorado VERNON J. EHLERS, Michigan DAVID WU, Oregon GIL GUTKNECHT, Minnesota MICHAEL M. HONDA, California FRANK D. LUCAS, Oklahoma BRAD MILLER, North Carolina JUDY BIGGERT, Illinois LINCOLN DAVIS, Tennessee WAYNE T. GILCHREST, Maryland RUSS CARNAHAN, Missouri W. TODD AKIN, Missouri DANIEL LIPINSKI, Illinois TIMOTHY V. JOHNSON, Illinois SHEILA JACKSON LEE, Texas J. RANDY FORBES, Virginia BRAD SHERMAN, California JO BONNER, Alabama BRIAN BAIRD, Washington TOM FEENEY, Florida JIM MATHESON, Utah BOB INGLIS, South Carolina JIM COSTA, California DAVE G. REICHERT, Washington AL GREEN, Texas MICHAEL E. SODREL, Indiana CHARLIE MELANCON, Louisiana JOHN J.H. ‘‘JOE’’ SCHWARZ, Michigan DENNIS MOORE, Kansas MICHAEL T. MCCAUL, Texas VACANCY VACANCY (II) VerDate 11-MAY-2000 15:47 Jul 08, 2006 Jkt 023331 PO 00000 Frm 00002 Fmt 5904 Sfmt 5904 C:\WORKD\FULL05\100705\23331 SCIENCE1 PsN: SCIENCE1 C O N T E N T S October 7, 2005 Page Witness List ............................................................................................................. 2 Hearing Charter ...................................................................................................... 3 Opening Statements Statement by Representative Sherwood L. Boehlert, Chairman, Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives ........................................................ 14 Written Statement ............................................................................................ 15 Statement by Representative Bart Gordon, Ranking Minority Member, Com- mittee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives ............................................ 15 Written Statement ............................................................................................ 22 Statement by Representative Vernon J. Ehlers, Chairman, Subcommittee on Environment, Technology, and Standards, Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives .................................................................................... 23 Written Statement ............................................................................................ 23 Statement by Representative Charlie Melancon, Member, Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives ............................................................. 24 Written Statement ............................................................................................ 25 Prepared Statement by Representative Jerry F. Costello, Member, Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives ........................................................ 26 Prepared Statement by Representative Eddie Bernice Johnson, Member, Com- mittee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives ............................................ 26 Prepared Statement by Representative Russ Carnahan, Member, Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives ........................................................ 26 Prepared Statement by Representative Sheila Jackson Lee, Member, Com- mittee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives ............................................ 27 Witnesses: Brigadier General David L. Johnson (ret.), Assistant Administrator for Weather Services; Director, The National Weather Service, National Oce- anic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Oral Statement ................................................................................................. 28 Written Statement ............................................................................................ 30 Biography .......................................................................................................... 41 Mr. Max Mayfield, Director, NOAA Tropical Prediction Center/National Hur- ricane Center Oral Statement ................................................................................................. 41 Written Statement ............................................................................................ 43 Biography .......................................................................................................... 53 Discussion Lessons Learned ................................................................................................... 53 Communication With Emergency Management Officials ................................. 54 Directing Hurricanes ........................................................................................... 62 Communication With Emergency Management Officials (cont.) ..................... 64 Hurricane Multi-decadal Cycle ........................................................................... 65 Funding for Hurricane Research ........................................................................ 66 Local Forecasts ..................................................................................................... 67 Evacuation Decision ............................................................................................. 67 Hurricane Liaison Team ...................................................................................... 68 (III) VerDate 11-MAY-2000 15:47 Jul 08, 2006 Jkt 023331 PO 00000 Frm 00003 Fmt 5904 Sfmt 5904 C:\WORKD\FULL05\100705\23331 SCIENCE1 PsN: SCIENCE1 IV Page Facilities and Equipment .................................................................................... 70 Long-Term Outlook .............................................................................................. 70 Timeline ................................................................................................................ 71 Five-Day Forecasts ............................................................................................... 73 Rebuilding New Orleans ...................................................................................... 74 Communicating With Media ............................................................................... 75 Concluding Remarks ............................................................................................ 83 Appendix 1: Answers to Post-Hearing Questions Brigadier General David L. Johnson (ret.), Assistant Administrator for Weather Services; Director, The National Weather Service, National Oce- anic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce .......... 86 Mr. Max Mayfield, Director, NOAA Tropical Prediction Center/National Hur- ricane Center ........................................................................................................ 108 Appendix 2: Additional Material for the Record Hurricane Liaison Team (HLT) Briefing, August 28, 2005 .................................. 118 VerDate 11-MAY-2000 15:47 Jul 08, 2006 Jkt 023331 PO 00000 Frm 00004 Fmt 5904 Sfmt 5904 C:\WORKD\FULL05\100705\23331 SCIENCE1 PsN: SCIENCE1 NOAA HURRICANE FORECASTING FRIDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2005 HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, Washington, DC. The Committee met, pursuant to call, at 10:00 a.m., in Room 2318 of the Rayburn House Office Building, Hon. Sherwood L. Boehlert (Chairman of the Committee) presiding. (1) VerDate 11-MAY-2000 15:47 Jul 08, 2006 Jkt 023331 PO 00000 Frm 00005 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C:\WORKD\FULL05\100705\23331 SCIENCE1 PsN: SCIENCE1 2 VerDate 11-MAY-2000 15:47 Jul 08, 2006 Jkt 023331 PO 00000 Frm 00006 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6602 C:\WORKD\FULL05\100705\23331 SCIENCE1 PsN: SCIENCE1 3 HEARING CHARTER COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES NOAA Hurricane Forecasting FRIDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2005 10:00 A.M.–12:00 P.M. 2318 RAYBURN HOUSE OFFICE BUILDING Purpose: On October 7, 2005 at 10:00 a.m., the House Science Committee will hold a hear- ing on hurricane forecasting by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra- tion (NOAA). The Committee is holding the hearing to better understand the pre- diction of hurricanes and the outlook for the remainder of the 2005 hurricane sea- son. The Committee plans to explore several overarching questions: 1. What are the different responsibilities of the National Hurricane Center and local weather forecast offices when a tropical storm or hurricane threatens the United States? 2. What were the timelines of Katrina and Rita progressing from tropical de- pressions to major hurricanes and when were warnings issued to the public and to federal, State, and local officials? Was there any difference in how the National Weather Service forecast and issued warnings for these two major hurricanes? 3. What is the outlook for the remainder of the 2005 hurricane season and for the next five to 10 years?