Volume 9, Number 2, May 2017 Cold Cases: An Exploratory Study into the Status of Unresolved Homicides in the USAA Sarah L. Stein, PhDB, Erin Kimmerle, PhDC, James M. Adcock, PhDD, Sara Martin, MFSE Abstract Over the years, the interest in cold cases and the solving of unresolved homicides has been in the fore front for many law enforcement agencies. There has been little to no research conducted, however, that specifies how many cases exist in this country and what factors contribute to successful resolutions. In 2010, ScrippsNews reported that from 1980 to 20081, based on the Uniform Crime Report (UCR) clearance data, the USA had accumulated nearly 185,000 unresolved homicides. Until now that number had neither been validated nor refuted. This research identified, with confidence, over 230,355 unresolved homicides for the period 1980-2014. The only other known source, the Murder Accountability Project2, reflects that the figure is closer to 235,000 with thousands being added yearly. Besides the crime data containing the number of homicides and their respective clearances, this research also identified how most police agencies regard cold cases; the design and make up of a cold case unit and what factors affect the solvability of these cold cases. Furthermore, as part of the concern regarding unresolved homicides, the unclear status of the “unidentified dead” in the USA was also reviewed. The process attempted to properly identify and clarify those issues while describing the procedures being utilized, all working towards a “best practices” approach. Key Words: Cold cases; homicides; cold case teams; solvability factors; unidentified dead; best practices; Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) and Supplemental Homicide Reports (SHR). _____________________________ A Please address all question to Dr. Adcock, at [email protected]. B Stein, Sarah L., PhD; Assistant Professor, Fitchburg State University, Fitchburg, MA and co-founder of The Center for the Resolution of Unresolved Crimes (CRUC), Ware, MA. C Kimmerle, Erin, PhD; Forensic Anthropologist; Associate Professor, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL D Adcock, James M., PhD; Death Investigation Expert and Forensic Consultant, The Center for the Resolution of Unresolved Crime (CRUC), Collierville, TN. E Martin, Sara, MFS. A tenprint Examiner, State of Connecticut. www.InvestigativeSciencesJournal.org Vol.9, No.2, May 2017 Introduction: We have seen many cold case teams come and go. Many departments chose to discontinue the units when they ran out of money awarded to them through DNA Cold Case Grants from NIJ. It appears they felt that without the outside funding they could neither sustain nor justify having a cold case unit in place. Then again, one could also suggest that policing today is focusing on today and tomorrow thus allowing cases from the past to remain undisturbed because they do not see a present threat or danger to society. However, by not investigating cold cases where arrests and convictions are obtained, we are allowing criminals to continue to commit violent crimes and perhaps even more murders. If our police agencies were to approach both “hot” and “cold” cases proactively, from both ends of the spectrum, there is potential to save time and money, while reducing the number of other crimes. When it comes to the number of cold cases in the USA today, the figure is much higher than this research reflects because two more years (2015 and 2016) with high homicide rates have occurred. Each year has contributed at least 6,000 more unresolved homicides to the mix making the figure closer to 242,000. Add into that the possible homicides that exist within the suggested number of unidentified dead existing across the country of 40,000 (not confirmed), the number of unresolved homicides could rise even more. This concern over the unidentified dead is an issue unique to itself; unless a set of human remains has been labeled a homicide, there is little if any law enforcement involvement. As a result, the investigative process rests on the shoulders of medical examiners and coroners across the country. Thankfully, the NIJ initiated a program known as NamUS, The National Missing and Unidentified Persons System – however, the initiative is only the beginning of efforts that have been needed for some time. Hot Homicides Because there is a strong belief that there is a significant correlation between the newly reported “hot” homicides and those that become cold and unresolved, it was deemed appropriate to start this with a view of the research regarding hot cases and their related investigative processes. One of the first references is to a study in which Baskin and Sommers (2010)3 evaluated the influence of forensic evidence on case outcomes in homicide investigations. They found that investigative actions contributed more to the Criminal Justice outcomes than did the forensic evidence. Along similar lines, but related more to the utilization of DNA was a piece of research conducted by Schroeder and White (2009)4. In this study, the authors looked at homicide cases in Manhattan, NY, concluding that detective decisions had a larger influence on solving homicides than did DNA. In fact, DNA in their cases served as validation of the detective work. And yet in another study reported by McEwen and Regoeczi (2015)5 regarding the use of physical evidence in homicide investigations found that in only 7% of the cases did DNA identify the offender for arrest. Latent prints had a much higher resolution rate than did DNA but the most significant result was that detective decisions play more of a role in solving homicide cases than does physical evidence, especially DNA. However, when it came time for 2 www.InvestigativeSciencesJournal.org Vol.9, No.2, May 2017 prosecution, the DNA results weighed heavily on the court proceedings. The suggestion here was that the processing of DNA evidence takes months to complete, therefore the detectives in most of the cases had already made an arrest before results were recorded. Cold Cases When it comes to cold case research one of the most significant pieces of research came from Rob Davis whose first report came as the result of an NIJ Grant.6 Looking for solvability issues with cold case, the study focused on the cold case unit of the Metropolitan Police Department (MPD) in Washington DC. One factor that surfaced as the most prevalent reason for clearing cold cases was information from new witnesses or additional information gleaned from older ones previously identified in the case file. This supports the premise and statement by Sgt. David Rivers7 who listed that changes in relationships of witnesses brings with it new information in cold cases. Furthermore, contrary to popular belief, “DNA matches and confessions elicited from perpetrators accounted for less than 5% of clearances each.” In Davis’ discussion, they found that by utilizing detective processes as their guide, the authors identified three reasons why cold cases are cleared. The least likely case to be solved is the one the detective picks up for review due to a family member complaint or a media request. The second type of detective action is the utilization of forensic techniques that lead to a perpetrator; they noted that with indiscriminate DNA testing of large numbers of cases, the return is well below 50%. And, lastly, the highest return for clearance comes from the individual who has been arrested for another crime and now admits to the murder or names the killer to the detectives. Davis, et. al. take the position that having a cold case unit does not appear to be a cost- effective process or entity for a police agency. While this position does have some merit, it is the position of the authors here, that research needs to go further and attempt to identify the savings obtained when criminals are taken off the streets, thus preventing them from committing other, frequently violent crimes. And, while not particularly a fair question, one can argue that you cannot put a price tag on a person’s life. NIJ Cold Case Working Group In 2015, the NIJ started a Cold Case Working Group with the express intent to define the term “cold case”; identify what constitutes a cold case unit; determine which methodology and protocols can be attributed to successful cold case units; and to ultimately write a “best practices” approach to the issue at hand. However, as will be seen in this study, the variance of definitions and approaches are large and will differ, even significantly, from agency to agency and state to state. However, beginning with a “best practices” approach is an ideal way to proactively approach this dilemma. It was one of the leaders of this group that posed a couple of questions to Dr. Adcock that was the impetus for this study to be conducted. The first question posed: “Was there any research that validated the number of unresolved homicides in the USA?” Secondly, “How many cold case units or teams do we have operating in our police agencies?” No offense 3 www.InvestigativeSciencesJournal.org Vol.9, No.2, May 2017 intended, but asking that first question now was a little odd as one would have thought we already knew the answer. As it turns out we didn’t. We were all assuming the cold case numbers were high, but had no idea of the actual figures. Both of those questions, along with others, are preliminarily answered in this study. The initial response, as previously mentioned above, was Hargrove’s 185,000 reported in 2010. But no one had validated that nor challenged it in any manner. As a result of this research we now know that the figures are well over 242,000 and they are climbing by the thousands each year.