Evaluation Report Evaluation of the Payapa at Masaganang Pamayanan (PAMANA) Program Dotan Haim Maria Carmen Fernandez Micah Cruz Prepared by Innovations for Poverty Action (IPA) Contact: Nassreena Sampaco-Baddiri, Country Director, IPA Philippines +632 9006190 / +632 7462675 [email protected] Submitted to UNDP Philippines November 20, 2019 Authors Dotan Haim (Lead Principal Investigator) Maria Carmen “Ica” Fernandez Ma. Angelica Feliz “Micah” Cruz Contributing Authors Jori Breslawski Megan Ryan Contributing PIs Yuhki Tajima Renard Sexton Case Study Writers Nelia “Bane” Agbon Aries Arugay Assad Baunto Sheryl “Shei” Datinguinoo Rosalie Arcala-Hall Maria Victoria “Mags” Maglana Innovations for Poverty Action Nassreena Sampaco-Baddiri (Country Director) Heather Richmond (Research Coordinator) Innovations for Poverty Action | 8b Belvedere Tower, San Miguel Ave. | Ortigas Center, Pasig City | poverty-action.org | i About the Research Team The main authors of this report are Dotan Haim, Ica Fernandez, and Micah Cruz. Haim is an Assistant Professor at American University. His work centers on development and peacebuilding with a focus on the Philippines. Fernandez received her MPhil from the University of Cambridge and works on spatial approaches to post-conflict reconstruction and transitional justice in the Philippines. Cruz (IPA) received her MPA from Columbia University and works on evaluations of development interventions. Jori Breslawski (PhD Candidate, University of Maryland) and Megan Ryan (PhD Candidate, University of Michigan) also contributed substantially to the writing and research contained in this report, particularly the design and analysis of the surveys and case studies. Yuhki Tajima (Associate Professor, Georgetown University) and Renard Sexton (Assistant Professor, Emory University) served as contributing principal investigators and provided input into the research design and interpretation of findings. The report relies on evidence collected from six case studies conducted by Nelia Agbon (independent researcher, University of the Philippines Diliman), Aries Arugay (Assistant Professor, University of the Philippines Diliman), Assad Baunto (independent researcher, MPhil, Oxford University), Shei Datinguinoo (independent researcher, University of the Philippines Los Baños), Rosalie Hall (Professor, University of the Philippines Visayas) and Mags Maglana (independent researcher, PhD candidate, Ateneo de Davao). Innovations for Poverty Action | 8b Belvedere Tower, San Miguel Ave. | Ortigas Center, Pasig City | poverty-action.org | ii Table of Contents List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................... iv List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................... v List of Acronyms / Abbreviations ............................................................................................................... vii Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................................... 1 Evaluation Background ................................................................................................................................. 8 PAMANA as a National Program ............................................................................................................... 17 PAMANA for Areas with Completion Agreements ................................................................................... 38 PAMANA for Communities Affected by the CPP/NPA/NDFP Conflict Line .......................................... 52 PAMANA in the Bangsamoro Region........................................................................................................ 69 Recommendations ....................................................................................................................................... 92 Annex A: Works Cited .............................................................................................................................. 100 Annex B: Evaluation Matrix ..................................................................................................................... 107 Annex C: Evaluation Methodology .......................................................................................................... 131 Annex D: Project Documents Reviewed .................................................................................................. 136 Annex E: List of High-Level KIIs ............................................................................................................ 138 Annex F: Survey Questionnaires .............................................................................................................. 140 Annex G: Survey Randomization Protocol ............................................................................................... 240 Annex H: Survey Security Protocol .......................................................................................................... 246 Annex I: Negros-Panay Survey Barangays ............................................................................................... 249 Annex J: Bangsamoro Survey Barangays ................................................................................................. 259 Annex K: Case Study Guidelines.............................................................................................................. 264 Annex L: Case Studies .............................................................................................................................. 276 Innovations for Poverty Action | 8b Belvedere Tower, San Miguel Ave. | Ortigas Center, Pasig City | poverty-action.org | iii List of Tables Table 1. Case Study Area Scope based on Conflict Line. .......................................................................... 13 Table 2. Summary of Evaluation Criteria and Study Methods. .................................................................. 14 Table 3. Evolution of PAMANA. ............................................................................................................... 21 Table 4. Changes in the PAMANA Pillars ................................................................................................. 24 Table 5. PAMANA Implementing Agencies and Project Types. ............................................................... 25 Table 6. Comparing the Development Goals under the Old and New PAMANA. .................................... 29 Table 7. Gestation Period of Project Implementation by Agency. ............................................................. 32 Table 8. Gestation Period of Project Implementation by Conflict Line...................................................... 33 Table 9. Relevance, Efficiency, Effectiveness, Sustainability: PAMANA at the National Level .............. 36 Table 10. Relevance, Efficiency, Effectiveness, Sustainability: RPA Conflict Line .................................. 50 Table 11. Relevance, Efficiency, Effectiveness, Sustainability: CNN Conflict Line ................................. 68 Table 12. Relevance, Efficiency, Effectiveness Sustainability: Conflict Lines in the Bangsamoro Region..89 Innovations for Poverty Action | 8b Belvedere Tower, San Miguel Ave. | Ortigas Center, Pasig City | poverty-action.org | iv List of Figures Figure 1. Barangays with NPA presence (Haim, 2018). ............................................................................. 10 Figure 2. Negros-Panay survey barangays. ................................................................................................. 11 Figure 3. Bangsamoro survey barangays. ................................................................................................... 12 Figure 4. OPAPP's framework for the roots of conflict (OPAPP 2012). .................................................... 20 Figure 5. PAMANA Appropriations from 2011–2019. .............................................................................. 23 Figure 6. PAMANA expenditures by project type from 2011–2017 for the CPLA conflict line. ............. 39 Figure 7. PAMANA expenditures by project type from 2011–2017 for the RPA conflict line. ................ 40 Figure 8. Percentage of members indicating project status ......................................................................... 43 Figure 9. Measures of PAMANA effectiveness ......................................................................................... 43 Figure 10. Perceptions of CPD respondents regarding PAMANA project consultations. .......................... 45 Figure 11. Perceptions of CPD respondents regarding security in their barangay. .................................... 46 Figure 12. Perceptions of respondents regarding armed groups’ impact on PAMANA. ............................ 46 Figure 13. PAMANA awareness by province, by respondent status. ......................................................... 47 Figure 14. Support for NPA, RPA, and GPH. ............................................................................................ 48 Figure 15. Measures of Track 1 complementarity. ..................................................................................... 49 Figure 16. PAMANA expenditures by agency from 2011–2017 for the CNN conflict line. ..................... 54 Figure 17.