ECE/CEP/186 UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE ENVIRONMENTAL PERFORMANCE REVIEWS FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA Third Review DRAFT 25 January 2019 (not edited) UNITED NATIONS New York and Geneva, 2019 1 Introduction I.1 Physical context The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia is a landlocked country in the middle of the southern Balkan Peninsula. The country has a land area of 25,713 km2 and it is bordered by Serbia to the north (border length 232 km), Bulgaria to the east (165 km), Greece to the south (262 km) and Albania to the west (191 km). The physical geography is defined by the central Vardar River valley and high mountain massifs along the borders: the Dinaric range in the western and central parts of the country and the Rhodope range in the east. The average altitude of the terrain is 850 m above the sea level but more than 30 per cent of the land area is situated above 1,000 m. There are 16 mountain peaks higher than 2,000 m. The highest point is the Golem Korab peak (2,753 m) situated in the north-western part of the country on the Albanian border, while the lowest point is situated on the Vardar River (44 m). About two per cent of the land area is covered by water. The country has 35 large and small rivers, 3 natural lakes and 50 artificial lakes. The Vardar River, which bisects the entire country, passes through the capital Skopje and finally flows to the Aegean Sea is the longest and the most important river in the country. It has 301 km of its 388 km total length within the country’s borders. The country is located at the intersection of the African and Eurasian tectonic plates. The region is seismically active and has suffered various destructive earthquakes in the past. The country is also at the junction of two main climatic zones between the Mediterranean and continental climates. Along the valleys of the Vardar and Strumica rivers the climate is temperate Mediterranean, characterized by long and dry summers and mild and rainy winters. The interior of the country has a moderate continental climate, with warm and dry summers followed by cold, wet and snowy winters. Average annual precipitation varies from 500 mm in the eastern area to 1,700 mm in the western mountainous area. The temperature range also features wide fluctuations: maximum summer temperatures in the majority of the agricultural areas reach up to 40°C, while the lowest winter temperatures can drop to about -30°C. The average annual temperature is above +10°C. The warmest region in the country is Demir Kapija, while the capital, Skopje, has a 14°C annual temperature and 438 mm of precipitation. I.2 Human context In 2017, the country had 2.075 million inhabitants and the population density was 80.7 inhabitants per km2, a value well below the average of 124 inhabitants per km2 in the ECE Region. The territorial distribution of the population is uneven. Some 57.33 per cent of the population lives in urban areas, mainly in the five largest cities: in the capital Skopje (pop. 327,589), in Kumanovo (pop. 109,347), in Bitola (pop. 91,805), in Tetovo (pop. 91,988) and in Prilep (pop. 74,963). The life expectancy has been on a slight but steady rise. In 2010 average life expectancy at birth was 74.63 years - 76.66 and 72.65 for women and men, respectively. In 2016 the life expectancy was 75.70 years for the total population and 77.75 for women and 73.71 for men. Infant mortality which had had a decreasing trend since 1995 hit its lowest level 7.60 per 1,000 live birth in 2010 and has since then fluctuated somewhat rising to 9.20 in 2017. From 2010 to 2017 the total fertility rate decreased from 1.6 to 1.4 children per woman, a figure just slightly under the average level for the ECE Region. This trend, combined with the decreasing birth rate from 11.80 per 1,000 in 2010 to 10.50 in 2017, has brought changes in the age structure of the population. As a result of these demographic changes country’s population is aging, between 2010–2015, the share of the 0–14 age bracket out of the total population decreased from 18.58 per cent to 16.73 per cent, while the share of the over 65-age bracket increased from 11.67 per cent to 12.83 per cent. (table I.1) The Human Development Index, calculated by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), combines indicators of life expectancy, educational attainment and income into a composite human development index. It 2 Introduction is expressed as a value between 0 and 1, where the value 1 represents the best attainable human development. With the Index value of 0.757 in 2017 the country belonged to the high human development country group holding the 80th place out of 189 countries. The 2017 Index value for neighbouring Greece was 0.870 and its position 31st. Serbia had the 67th place with HDI of 0.787 while Albania was 68th with a HDI value of 0.785. Table I.1: Demographic and health indices, 2010–2017 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Population (million) 2.055 2.059 2.061 2.064 2.067 2.070 2.072 2.075 Birth rate (per 1,000) 11.80 11.10 11.40 11.20 11.40 11.10 11.10 10.50 Total fertility rate 1.60 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.40 Life expectancy at birth (years, total) 74.63 74.82 75.02 75.21 75.38 75.55 75.70 .. Life expectancy at birth (years, male) 72.65 72.85 73.05 73.23 73.40 73.56 73.71 .. Life expectancy at birth (years, female) 76.66 76.84 77.03 77.23 77.42 77.59 77.75 .. Percentage of population (0–14 years) 22.28 17.58 17.31 17.10 16.95 16.83 16.73 .. Percentage of population (65+ years) 9.98 11.67 11.75 11.90 12.18 12.52 12.83 .. Mortality rate (per 1,000) 9.30 9.50 9.80 9.30 9.50 9.90 9.90 9.80 Infant mortality rate (per 1,000) 7.60 7.60 9.80 10.20 9.90 8.60 11.90 9.20 Source: National Statistical Office, August 2018. I.3 Economic context Economy The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia is a small, open economy, well integrated into international trade. Its gross domestic product (GDP) in 2017 was US$11.33 billion, and the exports-to-GDP ratio reached to 55.11 per cent. Agricultural sector is still relatively large with its 11.13 per cent share of GDP in 2015. The industry which used to be the most important sectors in the past, produced 26.05 per cent of GDP while services made 62.81 per cent of the total GDP in 2015. Figure I.1: GDP by sector in 2007, 2010, 2013 and 2015, percentage of total GDP 120 100 13.8 13.7 13.0 12.6 80 60 56.8 55.0 54.8 53.6 40 5.9 5.6 7.1 7.1 20 14.7 15.5 15.0 16.8 8.9 10.1 10.0 9.7 0 2007 2010 2013 2015 Agriculture, forestry and fishing Manufacturing Construction Services Net taxes on products From the beginning of this century until 2008 the annual average growth of the economy was 4.31 per cent. During the first years of this century country’s economy on average grew annually by 4.31 per cent but this continuous GDP growth and economic stability with low inflation rates came to sudden end with the international banking crisis of 2008 which caused the country to go into sudden and steep recession - GDP dropping from 5.47 per cent growth in 2008 to 0.36 per cent contraction in 2009. The GDP got back to the growth path in 2010 when the annual GDP growth rate jumped to 3.4 per cent. This upswing was cut short in 2012 when the country had two consecutive quarters of negative growth, largely as a result of the European debt crisis. However, this downturn was again short, and country exited recession already at the end of 2012 although the annual 2012 GDP was negative 0.50 per cent. Introduction 3 Growth returned in 2013 and lasted until 2016 but turned negative in the first half of 2017, as political uncertainty affected investment. In spite of the steady consumption level and growing investor confidence after the new Government took office in June 2017 the GDP remained slightly negative at the end of the year. The 2015–2017 Global competitiveness report of the World Economic Forum ranked the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia to the 60th place out of the 140 reviewed countries. The country has suffered of persistent high unemployment rate for many years. After 2010 when the unemployment rate was 32.1 per cent of the labour force the situation finally started slowly but continuously to improve. Helped by public investment and employment programmes the unemployment rate decreased to 22.4 per cent in 2017. However, at the same time the labour force participation rate fell to its lowest level since 2012. In connection to the improved employment situation the amount of people living below the national poverty line has also diminished.