Appendix A: Derivation of Dividend Discount Model

Appendix A: Derivation of Dividend Discount Model

Appendix A: Derivation of Dividend Discount Model D1 D2 D3 A.1 Summation of Infinite Geometric Series P0 ¼ þ þ þÁÁÁ (A.6) 1 þ k ðÞ1 þ k 2 ðÞ1 þ k 3 Summation of geometric series can be defined as: Where P0 ¼ present value of stock price per share D ¼ dividend per share in period t (t ¼ 1, 2,...,n) S ¼ A þ AR þ AR2 þÁÁÁþARnÀ1 (A.1) t If dividends grow at a constant rate, say g, then, D ¼ D (1 + g), D ¼ D (1 + g) ¼ D (1 + g)2, and so on. Multiplying both sides of Equation A.1 by R, we obtain 2 1 3 2 1 Then, Equation A.6 can be rewritten as: 2 nÀ1 n RS ¼ AR þ AR þÁÁÁþAR þ AR (A.2) 2 D1 D1ðÞ1 þ g D1ðÞ1 þ g P0 ¼ þ 2 þ 3 þÁÁÁ or, Subtracting Equation A.1 by Equation A.2, we obtain 1 þ k ðÞ1 þ k ðÞ1 þ k D1 D1 ðÞ1 þ g D1 P0 ¼ þ  þ S À RS ¼ A À ARn 1 þ k ðÞ1 þ k ðÞ1 þ k ðÞ1 þ k ðÞ1 þ g 2 It can be shown  2 þÁÁÁ (A.7) ð1 þ kÞ AðÞ1 À Rn S ¼ (A.3) Comparing Equation A.7 with Equation A.4, i.e., 1 R À ; D1 1þg P0 ¼ S1 1þk ¼ A, and 1þk ¼ R as in the Equation A.4. n 1þg < > If R is smaller than 1, and n approaches to 1, then R Therefore, if 1þk 1orifk g, we can use Equation A.5 approaches to 0 i.e., to find out P0 i.e., 2 nÀ1 S1 ¼ A þ AR þ AR þÁÁÁþAR þÁÁÁ 1; D1=ðÞ1 þ k þ AR (A.4) P ¼ 0 1 À ½ðÞ1 þ g =ðÞ1 þ k then, D1=ðÞ1 þ k ¼ ½1 þ k À ðÞ1 þ g =ðÞ1 þ k A D1=ðÞ1 þ k S1 ¼ (A.5) ¼ 1 À R ðÞk À g =ðÞ1 þ k D D ðÞ1 þ g ¼ 1 ¼ 0 k À g k À g A.2 Dividend Discount Model Dividend Discount Model can be defined as: C.-F. Lee and A.C. Lee (eds.), Encyclopedia of Finance, DOI 10.1007/978-1-4614-5360-4, 911 # Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013 Appendix B: Derivation of DOL, DFL and DCL B.1 DOL B.2 DFL Let P ¼ price per unit 9 > V ¼ variable cost per unit Let i ¼ interest rate on = iD ¼ interest payment F total fixed cost outstanding debt on dept ¼ ;> Q ¼ quantity of goods sold D ¼ outstanding debt The definition of DOL can be defined as: N ¼ the total number of shares outstanding DOL (Degree of operating leverage) t ¼ corporate tax rate EAIT ¼ ½QPðÞÀÀ V F À iD ðÞ1 À t The definition of DFL can be defined as: C.-F. Lee and A.C. Lee (eds.), Encyclopedia of Finance, DOI 10.1007/978-1-4614-5360-4, 913 # Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013 914 Appendix B B.3 DCL (Degree of Combined Leverage) Appendix C: Derivation of Crossover Rate Suppose there are two projects under consideration. Cash Table A.1 NPV of Project A and B under different discount rates flows of project A, B and B – A are as follows: Discount rate (%) NPV (Project A) NPV (Project B) 0 1500.00 3500.00 Period 0 1 2 3 5 794.68 1725.46 Project A À10,500 10,000 1,000 1,000 10 168.67 251.31 Project B À10,500 1,000 1,000 12,000 15 À390.69 À984.10 Cash flows of B – A 0 À9,000 0 11,000 20 À893.52 À2027.78 Based upon the information the table above we can cal- ; ; ; ; 1 000 10 000 culate the NPV of Project A and Project B under different 0 ¼½þ10 500 ÀÀðÞ10 500 À "#1"#þ Rc 1 þ Rc discount rates. The results are presented in Table A.1. 1; 000 1; 000 12; 000 1; 000 NPV(B) is higher with low discount rates and NPV(A) þ 2 À 2 þ 3 À 3 is higher with high discount rates. This is because the cash ðÞ1 þ Rc ðÞ1 þ Rc ðÞ1 þ Rc ðÞ1 þ Rc flows of project A occur early and those of project B occur (A.10) later. If we assume a high discount rate, we would favor project A; if a low discount rate is expected, project B will be Solving Equation A.10 by trial and error method for Rc,Rc chosen. In order to make the right choice, we can calculate equals 10.55%. the crossover rate. If the discount rate is higher than the Using the procedure of calculating internal rate of return crossover rate, we should choose project A; if otherwise, (IRR) as discussed in Equations A.8, A.9, and A.10,we we should go for project B. The crossover rate, Rc, is the calculate the IRR for both Project A and Project B. The rate such that NPV(A) equals to NPV(B). IRR for Project A and B are 11.45% and 10.95% respec- Suppose the crossover rate is Rc, then tively. From this information, we have concluded that Project A will perform better than Project B without consideration NPVðAÞ¼ À10; 500 þ 10; 000=ð1 þ RcÞþ1; 000= for change of discount rate. Therefore, the IRR decision rule 2 3 cannot be used for capital budgeting decisions when there ðÞ1 þ Rc þ 1; 000=ðÞ1 þ Rc (A.8) exists an increasing or decreasing net cash inflow. This is so called “The Timing Problem” for using the IRR method for NPVðBÞ¼ À10; 500 þ 1; 000=ð1 þ RcÞþ1; 000= 2 3 capital budgeting decisions. ðÞ1 þ Rc þ 12; 000=ð1 þ RcÞ NPVðAÞ¼NPVðBÞ (A.9) Therefore, Rearranging the above equation (moving all terms on the LHS to the RHS), we obtain Equation A.10 C.-F. Lee and A.C. Lee (eds.), Encyclopedia of Finance, DOI 10.1007/978-1-4614-5360-4, 915 # Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013 Appendix D: Capital Budgeting Decisions with Different Lives D.1 Mutually Exclusive Investment Projects Subtracting Equation A.12 from Equation A.11 gives: with Different Lives ÀÁ NPVðÞÀð N; t HÞNPVðÞ¼ N; t NPVðNÞ 1 À Htþ1 ÀÁ The traditional NPV technique may not be the appropriate NPVðNÞ 1 À Htþ1 criterion to select a project from mutually exclusive invest- NPVðÞ¼ N; t 1 À H ment projects, if these projects have different lives. The underlying reason is that, compared with a long-life project, Taking the limit as the number of replications, t, a short-life project can be replicated more quickly in the long approaches infinity gives: run. In order to compare projects with different lives, we compute the NPV of an infinite replication of the investment lim NPVðÞ¼ N; t NPVðÞ N; 1 project. For example, let Projects A and B be two mutually x!1 2 3 exclusive investment projects with the following cash flows. 1 ¼ NPV4 hi5 Year Project A Project B 1 À 1=ðÞ1 þ K N 0 100 100 "# N 17050 ðÞ1 þ K ¼ NPVðNÞ (A.13) 27050 ðÞ1 þ K N À 1 350 Equation A.13 is the NPV of an N-year project replicated By assuming a discount rate of 12%, the traditional NPV at constant scale an infinite number of times. We can use it to of Project A is 18.30 and the NPV of Project B is 20.09. This compare projects with different lives because when their shows that Project B is a better choice than Project A. cash-flow streams are replicated forever, it is as if they had However, the NPV with infinite replications for Project A the same (infinite) life. and B should be adjusted into a comparable basis. Based upon Equation A.13, we can calculate the NPV of In order to compare Projects A and B, we compute the Projects A and B as follows: NPV of an infinite stream of constant scale replications. Let NPV (N, 1) be the NPV of an N-year project with NPV (N), replicated forever. This is exactly the same as an annuity For Project A For Project B paid at the beginning of the first period and at the end of NPVðÞ2; 1 NPVðÞ3; 1 "#"# every N years from that time on. The NPV of the annuity is: ðÞ1 þ 0:12 2 ðÞ1 þ 0:12 3 ¼ NPVð2Þ ¼ NPVð3Þ : 2 : 3 ; NPVðNÞ NPVðNÞ ðÞ1 þ 0 12 À 1 ðÞ1 þ 0 12 À 1 NPVðÞ¼ N 1 NPVðNÞþ N þ 2N þÁÁ ðÞ1 þ K ðÞ1 þ K 1:2544 1:4049 ¼ ðÞ18:30 ¼ 20:09 In order to obtain a closed-form formula, let 0:2544 0:4049 (1/[(1 + K)N]) ¼ H.Thenwehave: ¼ 90:23 ¼ 69:71 ÀÁ NPV N; t NPV N 1 H H2 Ht (A.11) ðÞ¼ ð Þ þ þ þÁÁþ Consequently, we would choose to accept Project A over Multiplying both sides by H, this becomes Project B, because, when the cash flows are adjusted for different lives, A provides the greater cash flow. À Alternatively, Equation A.13 can be rewritten as an equiv- H½¼ NPVðÞ N; t NPVðNÞ H þ H2 Á alent annual NPV version as: þþHt þ Htþ1 (A.12) C.-F. Lee and A.C. Lee (eds.), Encyclopedia of Finance, DOI 10.1007/978-1-4614-5360-4, 917 # Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013 918 Appendix D NPVðNÞ Assume company A buys a machine that costs $1,000 and K  NPVðÞ¼ N; 1 (A.14) Annuity factor the maintenance expense of $250 is to be paid at the end of each of the 4 years.

View Full Text

Details

  • File Type
    pdf
  • Upload Time
    -
  • Content Languages
    English
  • Upload User
    Anonymous/Not logged-in
  • File Pages
    103 Page
  • File Size
    -

Download

Channel Download Status
Express Download Enable

Copyright

We respect the copyrights and intellectual property rights of all users. All uploaded documents are either original works of the uploader or authorized works of the rightful owners.

  • Not to be reproduced or distributed without explicit permission.
  • Not used for commercial purposes outside of approved use cases.
  • Not used to infringe on the rights of the original creators.
  • If you believe any content infringes your copyright, please contact us immediately.

Support

For help with questions, suggestions, or problems, please contact us