Contents Preface — ANTONI KUKLIÑSKI, KRZYSZTOF PAW£OWSKI, JAN SWIANIEWICZ 7 ANTONI KUKLIÑSKI: Introduction: Why turning points? 9 PART ONE TURNING POINTS—THE FIELD OF THE DEBATE LOUIS EMMERIJ: The Great Turning Point 2007–2012 15 Comprehensive comments by: — EL¯BIETA M¥CZYÑSKA 25 JAN WORONIECKI 27 KATARZYNA ¯UKROWSKA 31 R. P. MISRA: Turning points of twentieth century. A discourse on continuity and change 35 PAUL DREWE: Long waves of innovation as turning points? 49 ANDRZEJ P. W IERZBICKI: Fundamental innovations, turning points and cycles 57 ANTONI KUKLIÑSKI: Knowledge based economy versus wisdom based economy. The dilemma of the XXI century? 67 st JULIAN AULEYTNER:The21 Century University—A Producer and Conveyor of Knowledge 71 PART TWO THE METHAMORPHOSIS OF CAPITALISM. ATURNING POINT IN WORLD HISTORY? EL¯BIETA M¥CZYÑSKA: Towards a new economic Paradigm 83 JAN WORONIECKI: Beneath the crisis: decline or metamorphosis of capitalism? 97 KATARZYNA ¯UKROWSKA: Crisis 2008+ as a Turning Point in Europe, America, Asia and the Rest of the World: How the Global Economy Can Change, Profiting from the Past Downturn? 121 JAN LAMBOOY: Change and continuity—periods of economic turning points 133 VALTTERI KAARTEMO: Structural changes in international service trade and great transforma- tions in the wealth of nations 139 6 Contents HANS VAN ZON: owards state-society led development models or resource wars? 145 PART THREE LONG DURATION—TURNING POINTS—HISTORICAL INTERPRETATION ANNA ZORSKA: Activity of transnational corporations as a driver of changes in the world economy 161 HERMAN BAEYENS: The Great Turning Points of World Urbanisation 185 TOMASZ T. G ROSSE: Europeanisation as a turning point of modernization processes? The case study of EU rural development policy 201 BARBARA SAWICZ: Turning points in the European Union’s regional policy 221 KRZYSZTOF PAW£OWSKI: Polonia Restituta The Turning point 239 TOMASZ ZARYCKI: The Fall of the Soviet Empire as a Turning Point 243 PART FOUR THE FIELD OF THE DEBATE REVISITED KRZYSZTOF SZCZERSKI: As it was in the days of Noah. Some words on the phenomenon of historical turning points 255 ANNA G¥SIOR-NIEMIEC: Turning Points in the Context of Braudelian Longue Durée 261 st ROMAN GALAR: On some potential tipping points of 21 century 271 PAUL DREWE: Turning points—a comment 275 ANTONI KUKLIÑSKI: Towards a new conceptual framework for turning points analysis 277 The last Postscriptum of the Reupus Series — ANTONI KUKLIÑSKI 281 The Authors of the Volume 285 PREFACE Volumes VI and VII of the REUPUS Series “The Atlantic Community. The Titanic of the XXI Century?” and “The Turning Points of World History” can be seen as twin volumes trying to find new empirical observations, new methodological approaches and new value judgements to face the enigma of the XXI Century. Those volumes try to present some new interpretations of one of the greatest turning points of human history which is the essential feature of our times... The editors of volume VII are expressing deep gratitude to all Authors of the volume for most valuable contributions. Volume VII is the last volume of the Reupus Series. Antoni Kukliñski Krzysztof Paw³owski Jan Swianiewicz Nowy S¹cz, April 16th, 2012 ANTONI KUKLIÑSKI INTRODUCTION: WHY TURNING POINTS? We are now in the middle of one of the greatest turning points in human history. The present pentagonal crisis of the years 2008–2012 has deep roots and consequences. It is a holistic crisis involving not only financial and economic dimensions. It also a crisis of the global order, the crisis the global elite and the crisis of the Atlantic Community. In this context we are defining the present crisis as a pentagonal holistic crisis incorporating all important dimensions of the global reality1. This crisis is the real end of the XX century. To my mind the conventional wisdom comparing the “long” XIX century 1814–1914 and the “short” XX century 1914–1990 is wrong. The XX century is also a “long” century covering the period 1914–2012? The two decades 1990–2010 are a logical conclusion of the XX century and not an opening of the XXI century. This pentagonal crisis can be analyzed as a cumulative network of five interrelated dynamic trajectories: The trajectory of the financial crisis The trajectory of the economic crisis The trajectory of the crisis of the global order The trajectory of the crisis of the global elite The trajectory of the crisis of the Atlantic Community2 *** This great historical hour is creating cognitive and pragmatic inspirations to test our knowledge and imagination facing the challenge of financial and methodological interpretations exploring the fascinating phenomenon of turning points. This is the deep motivation to prepare volume 7 of the Reupus Series. “The turning points of World history. Financial and Methodological interpretations.” The volume is a set of twenty five contributions of an eminent team of authors representing rich cognitive capacities to outline a network of valid papers exploring some fields of the vast domain defined as “the turning points in world’s history”. Naturally the volume is only a very modest attempt to explore some items of this vast domain. *** 1 Compare por. A. Kukliñski, Megaspaces of the XXI century. Ministry of Regional development, Warsaw 2011, the electronic version of this study is available from [email protected] 2 A. Kukliñski, K. Paw³owski (eds) The Atlantic Community. The Titanic of the XXI century?, Nowy S¹cz 2010 10 Antoni Kukliñski We hope however that the contributions published in our volume will open new paradigmatic perspectives in the study of the turning points of world history. This first perspective is emerging from the comparative analysis of the papers of L. Emmerij and R.P. Misra. The spirit and letter of these two papers explore deep differences in the interpretation of the turning points developed in the framework of Atlantic and Asian civilizations. In this context we should mention the contributions of Kishore Mahbubani presented in volume 6 of the Reupus Series3. The leading paper of Louis Emmerij and the set of comprehensive comments related to this paper are an modest but significant contribution to the debate calling for deep systemic changes in the global financial institutions. *** The second paradigmatic perspective is emerging in the papers of P.Drewe, A. Wierzbicki, A. Kukliñski and J. Auleytner. An integrated analysis of these four papers presents the concept of turning points in a broader framework linking the worlds of innovation, knowledge and education. *** The third paradigmatic perspective is outlined by the comprehensive papers of E. M¹- czynska, J. Woroniecki, K. ¯ukrowska, J. Lambooy and H. van Zon. These papers are examples of a brainstorming analysis of a great turning point in the history of capitalism which may be seen as a metamorphosis or a bankruptcy. *** The fourth paradigmatic perspective is emerging from two papers, in fact two studies analyzing in a long term perspectives two phenomena which can be seen as structures and driving forces creating consecutive turning points. The paper of A. Zorska is analyzing the role of TNC in the transformation of the global economy. The paper of H. Bayens “The great turning points of world urbanization” is a direct interpretation on the main topic of our Volume. These two papers have some unexpected common denominators. In the first paper we see the panoramic long term view presenting the rise of transnational corporations, in the second paper the rise of metropolitan regions. Both papers are creating an interesting background for more general discussions related to the phenomenon of turning points. *** The fifth paradigmatic perspective is related to turning points emerging in two fields of the experiences of the European Union in the field of rural development policy and in the field of regional policy. *** The sixth paradigmatic perspective is presented in the papers of K. Paw³owski and T. Zarycki exploring the turning points in the historical experiences of Poland and the Soviet Empire. 3 A. Kukliñski, K. Pawlowski (eds) op.cit. p 293–294, compare also A. Kukliñski, B. Skuza (eds) Turning points in the transformation of the global scene. The Polish Association for the Club of Rome, Warsaw 2006 Introduction: Why turning points? 11 *** I hope that the fundamental question: Why turning points is finding some interesting answers in part one , two and three of our volume. The essence of my arguments can be summarized in the following way: Hinc and Nunc we are living in one in a most important turning points in World History. This is a challenge to the whole system of social sciences (economics, sociology, political sciences) to develop a new paradigm in which the concept of the turning point will emerge as a leading concept organizing our research and education. Our volume is a very modest but significant step in this direction. The Volume is trying to outline a new archipelago of observations suggestions and value judgements which might in the future create a new paradigm of social sciences built around the fundamental concept of turning points. Let me present the following definition of paradigm: The paradigm is a set of questions exploring the empirical and institutional reality and a set of methodologies creating the philosophical and instrumental framework how to answer these questions. The rich and comprehensive content of our volume may lead to the design of an international research programme using inter alia the following mental map: The mental map is to my mind a useful instrument of the interpretation of the multidimensional innovative, and some time controversial content of our volume including part four of the volume—The field of the debate—Revisited. Part I: Turning Points—the Field of the Debate LOUIS EMMERIJ THE GREAT TURNING POINT 2007–2011? There is nothing more difficult than to forecast turning points.