1 Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies Belarus Public Policy Fund BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2008 A survey and analysis of developments in the Republic of Belarus in 2008 Minsk, 2009 2 BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK ’2008 Compiled and edited by Anatoly Pankovsky and Valeria Kostyugova English version translated by Vladimir Kuznetsov English version edited by Max Nuijens Scientific reviewers and consultants: Miroslav Kollar, Institute for Public Affairs, Program Director of the Slovak annual Global Report on the State of Society; Sergej Michalic, Slovak Democratic and Christian Union; Peter Pazit- ny, Director of the Heath Policy Institute (Healthcare); Vitaly Silitski, Director of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Stud- ies (BISS, Lithuania); Pavel Daneiko, Institute for Privatization and Management (Economy); Andrei Vardomatski, NOVAK lab- oratory (Media Monitoring); Vladimir Dunayev (Education, Ex- pert Networks). The yearbook is published with support of Charles S. Mott Foundation, Pontis Foundation © Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies, 2009 ISSN 1822-4091 © Belarus Public Policy Fund, 2009 3 Contents Editorial Foreword 6 STATE AUTHORITY Presidential Administration 7 by Vitaly Silitski House of Representatives of the National Assembly 18 by Nikolai Alexandrovich Government: from Growth to Crisis 26 by Vadim Sekhovich Belarusian Judicial System 33 by Andrei Kazakevich Army: Modernization Is Supposed to Follow Reform 43 by Alexander Alesin Security Services 48 by Andrei Lyakhovich FOREIGN POLICY Russian-Belarusian Relations 54 by Anatoly Pankovski, Valeria Kostyugova Belarus – EU Relations: Dialogue in Hard Times 63 by Dzyanis Melyantsou Belarus – U.S.: Delicate Balance 71 by Andrei Fyodorov 4 BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK ’2008 Polish-Belarusian Relations in 2008 78 by Kamil Klysinski Belarusian-Ukrainian Relations: on the Verge of Change 88 by Gennady Maksak Belarus – Third World: Nothing but Hope So Far 96 by Andrei Fyodorov SOCIETY Third Sector in 2008: Chance to Survive or Develop? 105 by Tatiana Vodolazhskaya Political Parties 113 by Yuri Chausov Public Opinion in the Year before the Crisis 134 by Sergei Nikolyuk Elections to the House of Representatives of the National Assembly of the Republic of Belarus: Mass Media Monitoring 150 Religion in Belarus: 1020th Anniversary of Christianity 158 by Natalia Vasilevich Education: Evolution or Stagnation? 169 by Svetlana Matskevich Belarusian Science: Advanced Retardation 179 by Alexander Gritsanov. Belarusian Culture: between Batleika and Belsat 188 by Maksim Zhbankov Healthcare: from Birth to Transplantation 196 by Maria Eismont 5 Sports: Achievements and Failures 204 by Alexander Zayats Belarusian Media: On the Road to Freedom 211 by Janina Melnikova Evolution of the Internet 219 by Pavlyuk Bykowski Expert Networks 229 by Anatoly Pankovsky ECONOMY Macroeconomic Situation 238 by Alexander Chubrik Labor Market and Welfare Policy 253 by Kirill Haiduk Energy Sector 260 by Yelena Rakova Privatization: Case-by-Case Sales as a Last Resort 271 by Tatiana Manenok Agriculture 290 by Konstantin Skuratovich Appendix: References 300 Authors 358 6 BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK ’2008 Editorial foreword “Belarusian Yearbook”, the result of combined efforts of Belarusian ex- perts and analysts, pieces together an accurate conceptualized chronicle of the contemporary history of Belarus. This unique annual publication is a holistic analytical survey of the events and tendencies “localized” in various domains of the Belarusian sociopolitical life. Contributing to this yearbook were independent analysts and experts, as well as specialists representing research centers. Since 2009, “Belarusian Yearbook” has been published under the auspices of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (BISS) in as- sociation with the Belarus Public Policy Fund. This book upholds the fine traditions of the “Belarusian Yearbook: project launched through strenuous efforts of Alexander Feduta, who coordinated the project in 2003–2007. “Belarusian Yearbook-2008” has a more complex structure compared to previous yearbooks, which seems logical amid the tenden- cies towards a more profound differentiation and specialization within the expert community, coordinators’ endeavor to provide a detailed de- scription of the situation in politics, economy, science, education, etc. on a wider scale, and finally, in conditions of a more sophisticated so- cial process in Belarus. The authors of this yearbook hope it will incite public discussions about current transformations in Belarus and development options the country has and will turn out to be helpful to state functionaries, busi- ness managers, and members of the diplomatic corps, journalists, poli- ticians and community leaders. Valeria Kostyugova Anatoly Pankovsky Vitali Silitsky State authority 7 STATE AUTHORITY Presidential Administration Vitaly Silitski Summary The Belarusian authorities in 2008 were faced with a necessity to take crucial political decisions and adjust the internal and foreign political efforts to stand up to new challenges. Decisions of this level are nor- mally taken by the head of state, and it was in 2008 that the office of the president – the Presidential Administration – started “borrowing” the functions of other state authorities, especially the government and the Foreign Ministry. Staff reshuffles in Lukashenko’s immediate sur- roundings, that is, in his Administration, always tend to have a profound influence on the nature of state policies and top-level decision-making in cases of emergency. The commencement of the liberalization cam- paign is mostly due to the expulsion of the Sheiman clan from Lukash- enko’s close circle of advisers and associates after the blast during the July 4 celebrations of Independence Day. But the replacement of Vik- tor Sheiman and his protégé Gennadi Nevyglas with Yury Zhadobin and Vladimir Makey was not a spontaneous decision, but a result of a lon- ger backroom struggle for power between a group of security officials and confidants of Alexander Lukashenko’s son Viktor. The popular opinion that the strengthening of Lukashenko Jr. paved the way for a new pro-European generation of pragmatists is quite debat- able. To begin with, the new team of senior officials is not much younger than the previous one. Also, nearly all of them have been involved in the most infamous reprisals of the past few years. Finally, some of the “new- 8 BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK ’2008 comers” represent the long-forgotten pack of “path breakers” of Lukash- enko’s “ideological vertical”. At the same time, the success of “pragma- tists” resulted in a dramatic change of the style, if not the very nature, of the Belarusian regime. First of all, the authorities seemed to start paying more attention to publicity, both inside the country and in foreign polit- ical campaigns. Secondly, the international community, especially Eu- rope, acquired new partners, nominal as they are, for dialogue capable of speaking the same language. Thirdly, the rudimentary dialogue with Belarusian civil society, which later became an integral part of Lukash- enko’s PR strategy, was launched on the initiative of the newly appoint- ed Presidential Administration officials. But the new Administration has not made any strategic proposals so far. The authorities have been unable to come up with a plan to address the effects of the global crisis, but in- stead turned to negating it and persecuting those who claimed the crisis should be reckoned with. It was clear at the end of the year that the so- cial contract, which had served as a firm framework for the harmony be- tween the state and society for the past decade, was not solid anymore and would hardly last long. The new presidential surroundings have been unable to propose a new formula for the social contract so far. The Principal Ideas: • the Presidential Administration invaded the bureaucratic respon- sibilities of other state authorities, gradually evolving into a shad- ow government and a shadow Interior Ministry; • the replacement of the head of the Presidential Administration as a result of an administrative “showdown” in the wake of the July 4 blast triggered a radical change in Lukashenko’s imme- diate surroundings. Most of the observers believe the reshuffle contributed to strengthening Lukashenko’s eldest son; • the new generation of leaders, especially the new head of the Presidential Administration Vladimir Makey managed to reshape Lukashenko’s major policies in 2008, but the new top manag- ers cannot take all the credit for the July-December liberaliza- tion. On the contrary, it was the Presidential Administration that blocked many liberalization initiatives of the government; there is no clear indication that the new generation in the Presidential Administration is a pro-European “breed”. State authority 9 Superstructure The Presidential Administration is the pivot of the presidential power vertical; and its administrative think-tank the key instrument that the president uses to manage his country. The Constitution of the Repub- lic of Belarus adopted in 1996 calls the Presidential Administration a state authority “to be organized, reformed and abolished” by the presi- dent (article 84), but fails to describe its domain. The provision on the Presidential Administration approved by presidential ordinance № 97 of January 23, 1997 enumerates the following functions of the Presi- dential Administration: • to pursue the state personnel policy and ideology of the Bela- rusian statehood; • to coordinate the activity of state