Government of Afghanistan Ministry of Counter Narcotics Vienna International Centre, PO Box 500, 1400 Vienna, Austria Tel.: (+43-1) 26060-0, Fax: (+43-1) 26060-5866, www.unodc.org AFGHANISTAN OPIUM SURVEY 2010 OPIUM SURVEY AFGHANISTAN Afghanistan Opium Survey 2010 December 2010 ABBREVIATIONS AGE Anti-government Elements ANP Afghan National Police CNPA Counter Narcotics Police of Afghanistan GLE Governor-led Eradication ICMP Illicit Crop Monitoring Programme (UNODC) ISAF International Security Assistance Force MCN Ministry of Counter-Narcotics UNODC United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The following organizations and individuals contributed to the implementation of the 2010 Afghanistan Opium Survey and to the preparation of this report: Ministry of Counter-Narcotics: Mohammad Ibrahim Azhar (Deputy Minister), Mohammad Zafar (Deputy Minister), Haroon Rashid Sherzad (Director General), Policy &Coordination, Mir Abdullah (Director of Survey and Monitoring Directorate), Saraj Ahmad (Deputy Director of Survey and Monitoring Directorate). Survey Coordinators: Eshaq Masumi (Central Region), Abdul Mateen (Eastern Region), Abdul Latif Ehsan (Western Region), Fida Mohammad (Northern Region), Mohammed Ishaq Anderabi (North-Eastern Region), Khalil Ahmad (Southern Region), Khiali Jan Mangal (Eradication Verification Reporter), Mohammad Khyber Wardak (Database officer), Mohammad Sadiq Rizaee (Remote Sensing), Shiraz Khan Hadawe (GIS & Remote Sensing Analyst), Mohammad Ajmal (Data entry), Sahar (Data entry), Mohammad Hakim Hayat (Data entry). United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (Kabul) Jean-Luc Lemahieu (Country Representative), Ashita Mittal (Deputy Representative, Programme), Devashish Dhar (International Project Coordinator), Ziauddin Zaki (National Project Coordinator), Abdul Mannan Ahmadzai (Survey Officer), Noor Mohammad Sadiq (Database Developer) Remote sensing analysts: Ahmad Jawid Ghiasee and Sayed Sadat Mehdi Eradication reporters: Ramin Sobhi and Zia Ulhaq Survey Coordinators: Abdul Basir Basiret (Eastern Region), Abdul Jalil (Northern Region), Sayed Ahmad (Southern Region), Fawad Ahmad Alaie (Western Region), Mohammad Rafi (North- eastern Region), Rahimullah Omar (Central Region), Provincial Coordinators: Fazal Mohammad Fazli (Southern Region), Mohammad Alam Ghalib Eastern Region), Altaf Hussain Joya (Western Region), Lutfurhaman Lutfi (Northern Region). United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (Vienna) Sandeep Chawla (Director, Division for Policy Analysis and Public Affairs), Angela Me (Chief, Statistics and Surveys Section-SASS), Martin Raithelhuber (Programme Officer), Philip Davis (Statistician), Coen Bussink (GIS & Remote Sensing Expert) (all SASS), Yen-Ling Wong (Scientific Affairs Officer, Laboratory and Scientific Section), Suzanne Kunnen (Public Information Assistant, Studies and Threat Analysis Section). The implementation of the survey would not have been possible without the dedicated work of the field surveyors, who often faced difficult security conditions. The MCN/UNODC Illicit Crop Monitoring activities in Afghanistan were made possible by financial contributions from the Governments of Germany, Norway, the United Kingdom and the United States of America. CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.............................................................................................................9 1 INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................................21 2 FINDINGS ..................................................................................................................................23 2.1 OPIUM CULTIVATION .....................................................................................................23 2.2 ERADICATION...................................................................................................................40 2.3 OPIUM YIELD ....................................................................................................................53 2.4 POTENTIAL OPIUM PRODUCTION................................................................................57 2.5 SECURITY...........................................................................................................................60 2.6 FARMERS WHO CULTIVATE OPIUM............................................................................60 2.7 REASONS FOR OPIUM CULTIVATION..........................................................................62 2.8 OPIUM CULTIVATION AND DISTANCE TO AGRICULTURAL MARKETS.............65 2.9 OPIUM CULTIVATION AND CANNABIS ......................................................................66 2.10 LOANS.................................................................................................................................66 2.11 AGRICULTURAL ASSISTANCE ......................................................................................67 2.12 INCOME OF FARMING HOUSEHOLDS .........................................................................68 2.13 OPIUM PRICES...................................................................................................................71 2.14 FARM-GATE VALUE OF OPIUM PRODUCTION AND INCOME FROM OPIUM......75 2.15 POTENTIAL VALUE OF THE OPIATE ECONOMY.......................................................77 3 METHODOLOGY.....................................................................................................................81 3.1 OPIUM CULTIVATION .....................................................................................................81 3.2 VILLAGE SURVEY METHODOLOGY ............................................................................92 3.3 DRUG FLOW SURVEY......................................................................................................95 3.4 OPIUM YIELD AND PRODUCTION ................................................................................95 3.5 ERADICATION VERIFICATION METHODOLOGY ......................................................99 3.6 OPIUM POPPY-GROWING HOUSEHOLDS..................................................................101 3.7 AVERAGE FARM-GATE PRICE AND FARM-GATE VALUE OF OPIUM PRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................101 3.8 PER HECTARE INCOME FROM OPIUM.......................................................................102 3.9 VALUE OF AFGHAN OPIATES IN NEIGHBOURING COUNTRIES..........................103 ANNEX I: OPIUM POPPY CULTIVATION PER PROVINCE (HA), 2002-2010..............111 ANNEX II: INDICATIVE DISTRICT LEVEL ESTIMATES OF OPIUM CULTIVATION (HA), 2001-2010...........................................................................................................................112 ANNEX III: ERADICATION FIGURES BY DISTRICT (2010)...........................................118 Afghanistan Opium Survey 2010 PREFACE This year’s Afghanistan Opium Survey shows that while the total area under cultivation and the number of families growing opium poppy remained the same as in 2009, opium production fell drastically to roughly half of last year’s levels. The cause of the decline in production was a naturally occurring plant disease that affected Afghanistan’s major opium poppy-growing regions this year. Like opium production, the gross export value of Afghan opiates was halved this year. This indicates that the income of Afghan traffickers from the 2010 opium season is also down. But there is cause for concern. The market responded to the steep drop in opium production with an equally dramatic jump in the market price to more than double 2009 levels. Meanwhile, the price of wheat—one of Afghanistan’s principal crop alternatives to opium—has fallen. At current prices, planting opium poppies is six times more profitable than growing wheat. The high price of opium combined with a low wheat price may encourage more farmers to cultivate opium in 2011. The 2010 Survey continues to underscore the linkage between opium poppy cultivation and security in Afghanistan. In areas where there is a government presence and the rule of law prevails, only a few hundred hectares of opium cultivation remain. Twenty provinces are already poppy- free, and with some additional effort, Afghanistan could achieve five more poppy-free provinces next year (Hirat, Kabul, Kunar, Laghman and Zabul). We encourage their governors, the central Government and donors to help these provinces become poppy-free in 2011. Badghis and Zabul have achieved significant reductions, and we encourage efforts to stop the increased cultivation in Badakhshan and Nangarhar to avoid a return to the worrying levels observed in 2007. The significant expansion of cultivation in Kandahar Province over the past two years must also be stopped, and we urge the governor and other partners to play an active role in preventing any further increase and to ensure progress is made in eradication. Further growth in poppy cultivation in Kandahar would have an adverse effect on other provinces as well. Enabling farmers to make a living and support their families by planting licit crops is the most effective way to stop opium poppy cultivation. Providing villages with agricultural assistance encourages the cultivation of licit crops. For the first time this year, we saw a correlation between provision of agricultural assistance and a drop in opium cultivation. Providing farmers with access to markets for their crops also helps keep them away