Building Peace in Sri Lanka 1 BUILDING PEACE IN SRI LANKA: AN ANALYSIS OF THE CONFLICT AND PLAN FOR INTERVENTION David Lewis, Cassandra Jastrow, Christopher Jonas, Tim Kennedy, Saira Yamin∗ Abstract The paper analyses the conflict between the Sri Lankan government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and also presents recommendations for intervention. The paper is structured on the Sandole- Cunningham-adapted 4-Pillar approach and covers analysis of the conflict as well as consideration and construction of useful modes for intervention and resolution. The paper begins with an analysis of the conflict itself—the main parties, the issues, objectives, means used, and orientations towards conflict and conflict resolution, as well as conflict and conflict resolution environments. A theoretical analysis of the conflict is also included with application of concepts, such as Basic Human Needs, Realistic Conflict and Social Identity Theory, Relative Deprivation, and Enemy System Dynamics. The historical roots of the conflict are explored in their social, political, religious and economic dimensions. An examination of the conflict process or conflict dynamics follows, including start-up conditions, conflict initiation, and periods of escalation and de-escalation. The paper also discusses interventions and attempts at resolution over the years. The final section of the paper contains proposals for peaceful resolution. INTRODUCTION he island of Sri Lanka gained its independence from Britain on February 4, 1948 in accordance with the Ceylon Independence Act T of 1947.1 As with many nations gaining freedom from colonial rule ∗ Major David Lewis, United States Air Force, Master’s Candidate in Peace Keeping, George Mason’s School of Public Policy; Cassandra Jastrow, Master’s candidate, Peace Operations Policy, George Mason University; Christopher Jonas, graduate in Peace Operations Policy Programme, George Mason University, currently working with the United States Institute of Peace; Tim Kennedy, Master’s candidate , Conflict Analysis and Resolution, George Mason University; Saira Yamin, doctoral candidate, Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution, George Mason University, Virginia, and Lecturer at the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies, Quaid-i- Azam University, Islamabad. 1 Russell R Ross and Andrea Matles Savada, eds., Sri Lanka: A Country Study (Washington, DC, Library of Congress, 1988), http://countrystudies.us/sri-lanka/22.htm (accessed June 29, 2007). 2 David Lewis, Cassandra Jastrow, Christopher Jonas, Tim Kennedy, Saira Yamin in the 20th century, “signals of the coming storm began to appear shortly after independence and recurred with increasing urgency until it finally broke with the events of July 1983”.2 Ever since, a vicious civil war waged by the Liberation Tigers of the Tamil Eelam (LTTE) has been going on against the Sinhalese Sri Lankans who control the government.3 The armed confrontation has lasted over two and a half decades, taken the lives of over 70,000 people, and displaced millions more. This paper analyzes the conflict between the Sri Lankan government and the LTTE and also presents recommendations for intervention. The paper is structured utilizing a comprehensive 4-Pillar approach adapted from Sandole by Cunningham that enables both analysis of the conflict, as well as consideration and construction of useful modes for intervention or resolution.4 The Four Pillar Framework enables practical examination of the root causes, issues, drivers, conflict dynamics and the local, regional, and 2 William Clarance, “Conflict and Community in Sri Lanka,” History Today 52, no.7 (2002): 44. 3 S.K Hennayake, “The Peace Accord and the Tamils in Sri Lanka,” Asian Survey 29, no. 4 (1989):401-415. 4 D.J.D Sandole, “A Comprehensive Mapping of Conflict and Conflict Resolution: A Three Pillar Approach,” Peace and Conflict Studies 5, no.2 (1998):1-30; William G. Cunningham, Terrorism and Conflict Resolution, (PhD diss., George Mason University: Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution, VA, 2006). Building Peace in Sri Lanka 3 global context of the conflict. A brief introduction to the model follows. Pillar 1: Elements of the Conflict - the Parties, Issues, Objectives, Means, Resources The first pillar is designated for the identification of the parties in a conflict. Identification and classification of the parties is an extremely important exercise as it provides an understanding of who the primary stakeholders and key players are. Additionally, we learn as to who is at the helm of affairs and is capable of taking decisions. We are also able to recognize potential spoilers and the extent of their political clout, with regard to their representation in a participatory problem-solving/decision-making process. Identifying the parties helps us also to observe factions within parties and their relative balance of power and hierarchical structures. Further, we are able to distinguish between primary and secondary parties. Secondary parties are those that may not have a direct stake in the outcome, but have underlying interests, owing to which they have played some form of covert or overt role in shaping the course of the conflict. This process also guides us in understanding and distinguishing between the internal and external actors engaged in the dispute. The personalities of decision makers in each party offer invaluable insights into their behaviour and attitudes towards the antagonists and prospects for conflict resolution. Understanding the issues such as the basic human needs, material interests and ideologies, of the parties also falls under Pillar 1. This step helps us to separate the parties’ positions from their underlying interests, for any meaningful third-party intervention and problem-solving process. We may be able to observe how the issues may have evolved with the passage of time, whether there are any common grounds between the parties, and if there is likely to be some flexibility on the part of the adversaries in some areas. It would be helpful to prioritize the issues for all parties in order to have some point of departure for launching a peace-building initiative. It is pertinent to identify the issues at stake, so that an effective strategy can be designed for lasting peace. Pillar 1 also recommends that we consider the objectives and goals of the parties. Finally, one must examine the means available to the parties and the tactics they employ in their conflict behaviour which has implications on the course of the conflict. Pillar 1 also considers: • the parties’ orientation to the conflict and conflict resolution mechanisms; and • the environment in which they are interacting. 4 David Lewis, Cassandra Jastrow, Christopher Jonas, Tim Kennedy, Saira Yamin Pillar 2: Conflict Causes and Conditions or "Drivers" These are the conflict causes, conditions, and drivers of the conflict at the individual, intra-national/societal, international, and global/ecological levels and shall be explained at length with reference to the case study subsequently in the paper. Pillar 3: Mapping the History of Conflict Interventions and Designing an Intervention Plan Mapping entails a comprehensive evaluation of past interventions and designing a sustainable peace plan; the 3rd party's range of potential conflict intervention objectives; as well as means for achieving any or some interrelated sequence of those objectives. The goal of a viable conflict resolution design would entail a vision for positive peace, that is, the creation of conditions whereby the structure promotes a harmonious and equitable co-existence for all stakeholders and addresses the root causes of the conflict. This would include a continuum of strategies, including preventive diplomacy/conflict prevention, conflict management/peacekeeping, conflict settlement/coercive peacemaking, conflict resolution/non-coercive peacemaking, and, finally, conflict transformation and peace building. Pillar 4: Conflict Dynamics – Initiation and Trends in Escalation, De-escalation and Resolution Cunningham has modified Sandole’s three pillar model of conflict analysis to analyze terrorism and counterterrorism intervention. This paper emulates Cunningham’s model to analyze the “Conflict Dynamics” in Sri Lanka. The authors believe that examination of Pillar 4 should ideally fall before Pillar 3, as it offers insights that are relevant to designing a conflict resolution intervention plan. The paper begins with an analysis of the conflict itself— (Pillar 1) the main parties, the issues, objectives, means used, and orientations towards conflict and conflict resolution, followed by Pillar 2 which is the conflict and conflict resolution environments. Theoretical analysis of the conflict is included with application of concepts such as Basic Human Needs, Realistic Conflict and Social Identity Theory, Relative Deprivation, and Enemy System Dynamics. Historical roots of the conflict—social, political, religious and economic are explored at various levels. Pillar 4 is placed prior to Pillar 3, and includes an examination of the conflict process, or conflict dynamics, including start-up conditions, conflict initiation, and periods of escalation and de-escalation. Having looked at all of the above, the paper finally maps interventions and attempts at resolution over the years. The final section of Building Peace in Sri Lanka 5 the paper contains proposals for peaceful resolution. PILLAR 1: ELEMENTS OF THE CONFLICT Pillar 1 provides a broad overview of the conflict