A spotted landscape: Threats to leopard, Panthera pardus pardus, & their prey within the Boland Mountain Complex, Western Cape by Brittany Claudia Schultz Thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science at Stellenbosch University Department of Conservation Ecology and Entomology, Faculty of AgriSciences Supervisor: Dr. Alison J. Leslie Scientific Advisor: Anita Wilkinson March, 2020 1 Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za Declaration By submitting this thesis electronically, I declare that the entirety of the work contained therein is my own, original work, that I am the sole author thereof (save to the extent explicitly otherwise stated), that reproduction and publication thereof by Stellenbosch University will not infringe any third party rights and that I have not previously in its entirety or in part submitted it for obtaining any qualification. Signed: Brittany C. Schultz Date: March, 2020. Copyright © 2020 Stellenbosch University All rights reserved 2 Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za Abstract The collapse of prey-bases threatens many predators globally and may contribute to some predators’ localised extinctions. A similar cascade is a potential threat to leopard Panthera pardus and their medium-sized mammalian prey populations in the Fynbos biome. Medium-sized mammals have reportedly been negatively impacted by a number of anthropogenic threats in agricultural land-covers that act as buffers between human development and natural fynbos habitats. One of these threats and a driver of many, is the loss of habitat from human-caused land-cover changes. The Boland Mountain Complex (BMC) is one of the eight patches of protected mountainous areas, proclaimed as a United Nations Environmental, Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization’s (UNESCO) World Heritage Site, in the Western Cape Province, South Africa. The BMC forms a key part of the leopard’s range within the Fynbos biome and has a relatively high diversity of medium-sized mammalian species, which utilise both the core protected areas and the surrounding agricultural buffer zones. Multiple adjacent human settlements are development hotspots and have increasing human population sizes. The ecology of many of these mammal species has not been well studied, particularly in the Fynbos biome. It is therefore essential that a baseline study be conducted to determine where future research inputs should be focused to mitigate potential threats in the BMC area. This study aimed to determine the extent that medium-sized mammals are threatened by human development in agricultural buffer zones in the BMC. Firstly, it was determined whether mammalian habitat was at risk of loss to land-cover change and shifts in fire regimes. Secondly, the study aimed to determine if there were apparent changes in any perceived, relative mammalian abundances over time, on agricultural buffer properties in the BMC. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology was used to analyse historic fire record data, obtained from the South African National Biodiversity Institute (SANBI) for the years 1957 to 2017. Further, two South African national land-cover datasets were obtained from the Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA), to analyse the land-cover changes for 1990 and 2013. Additionally, Local Ecological Knowledge (LEK) data, obtained through structured interviews with labourers and management stakeholders on agricultural properties, were gathered and analysed. Land-cover changes displayed an overall increase in the “natural” vegetation cover class of 107.6km2 mostly due to regrowth where plantations were felled, therefore remaining positively consistent over the 23-year period. The number of fires per year increased by five-times the average number that burnt per year from 1957 to 2017. Further, a three-fold increase in total burnt area was detected from 1972 to 2017, when compared to the 1957 to 1972 records. Of the eight species that showed significantly lower perceived relative-abundances in parts of the BMC, hares Lepus spp. and grey rhebok Pelea capreolus generated the greatest concern for their populations’ survival. Detected threats that may be driving population changes in buffer zones, include: feral dogs, illegal hunting, edge effects and isolation of habitats due to land-cover change, roads and fencing. Differences in mammal compositions and frequencies of species’ sightings, fire regimes and land-cover changes were seen between the defined mountain zones (MZ) for this area. This study thus provides considerations of mammal distributions and threats to the various species for future spatial and management planning. 3 Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za Opsomming Die ineenstorting van beskikbare prooi bedreig meeste roofdiere wêreld wyd en kan bydrae tot gelokaliseerde uitsterwe van hierdie roofdiere. In Fynbos biome kan ‘n soortgelyke effek ‘n potensiële bedreiging wees vir middelmatige grootte soogdiere en prooi populasies van die luiperd panthera pardus pardus, Middelmatige grootte soogdiere word volgens gerugte nadelig beinvloed deur ‘n verskeidenheid menslike bedreigings, onder andere landbou grond bedekkings, wat ‘n buffer sone veroorsaak tussen menslike ontwikkleling en die omliggende natuurlike Fynbos areas. Die verlies aan habitat as gevolg van menslike grond bedekking veranderinge is een van die hoof bedreigings en die katalisator van vele ander bedreigings. Die Boland Bergreeks Kompleks (BMK) is geleë in die Wes-Kaapse provinsie, Suid-Afrika, en is een van agt beskermde bergatige areas wat verklaar is onder die “United Nations Environmental, Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization’s (UNESCO)” Wêreld Erfenis Gebiede. Die BMK vorm ‘n deel van die luiperd se kern area binne die Fynbos biome en het ‘n redelike hoë diversiteit van middelmatige grootte soogdier spesies wat hoofsaaklik gebruik maak van hierdie kern areas, die beskermde areas, asook die omliggende landbou buffer sones. Die omliggende area ervaar tans ‘n toename in ontwikkeling asook populasie groei. Die ekologie van baie van hierdie soogdier spesies was nog nie van tevore deeglik bestudeer nie, veral nie die in die Fynbos biome nie. Derhalwe is dit noodsaaklik dat ‘n fundamentele studie onderneem word om te bepaal wat die fokus van toekomstige navorsings projekte moet wees ten einde die impak van toekomstige potensiële bedreigings in die BMK te ondervang. Die doel van hierdie studie was om te bepaal tot watter mate middelmatige grootte soogdiere bedreig word as gevolg van menslike ontwikkeling in landbou buffer sones, binne die BMK. Ten eerste, het die studie hom ten doel gestel om te bepaal wat die impak van veranderinge in grond bedekking asook veranderinge in brand patrone op soogdier habitate sal hê. Ten tweede was die doel van die studie om te bepaal of daar enige opmerklike veranderinge in die afname van die soogdiere, oor tyd op landbou buffer sones in die BMK was. Geografiese Inligting Stelsels (GIS) het die tegnologiese basis daar gestel, waarop die historiese data wat ontvang is vanaf die Suid Afrikaanse Instituut vir Biodiversiteit (SANBI) rakende brande vir die periode tussen 1975 tot 2017, ontleed is. Die Department van Omgewingswese (DEA) het twee addisionele Suid- Afrikaanse grond bedekkings data stelle beskikbaar gestel wat gebruik was om die grond bedekkings veranderinge te analiseer vir die periode tussen 1990 en 2013. Data (bekend as “Local Ecological Knowledge” (LEK)) wat saamgestel is deur formele onderhoude te voer met werknemers en bestuurspanne van belanghebbendes in die landbou bedryf was ontvang en ook ontleed. Grond bedekkings veranderinge het ‘n algemene toename getoon in natuurlike plantegroei in ‘n area van ongeveer 107.6km2. Hierdie toename kan hoofsaaklik toegeskryf word aan die feit dat plantegroei weer gevestig het, waar plantasies afgekap was en gevolglik het grond bedekkings veranderinge redelik konstant gebly in die laaste 23 jaar. Jaarlikse brande het egter toegeneem teen ‘n spoed wat vyf keer meer is as die gemiddelde jaarlikse brande vir die tydperk tussen 1957 tot 2017. Wanneer die totale brand area vir die periode 1972 – 2017 vergelyk word met die vir die tydperk 1957- 1972, is dit opmerklik dat die totale brand area drievoud verhoog het. Die grootse bron van kommer vir die oorlewing van ‘n spesie was vir hase Lepus spp. en die grys rhebok Pelea capreolus, aangesien hierdie spesie, uit die agt spesies wat bestudeer was, die een was wat ‘n duidelike afname getoon het in relatiewe verspreidings in gedeeltes van die BMC. Verandering in populasie in buffer sones word bedreig deur onder andere, wilde honde, onwettige jag, isolasie van habitat as gevolg van veranderinge in grond bedekking, paaie en omheining. 4 Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za Daar is verskille opgemerk in soogdier samestellings en die gereeldheidsbasis waarop soogdiere waarneem word, asook brand patrone en grond bedekkings veranderinge tussen die gedefinieerde bergreekse (MZ) vir hierdie area. Derhalwe voorsien hierdie studie oorweging van soogdier verspreiding en die bedreigings van die verskillende spesies vir toekomstige ruimtelike- en bestuursbeplanning. 5 Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za Dedication This thesis is dedicated to My mother – Diedré Glenda Griffiths Schultz My grandmother – Ernestine Huskisson Griffiths (1924-2012) “Here’s to strong women. May we know them. May we be them. May we raise them.” 6 Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za Acknowledgements