Making Victory Count After Defeating ISIS Stabilization Challenges in Mosul and Beyond Shelly Culbertson, Linda Robinson C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2076 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-9859-7 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2017 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover image by Mstyslav Chernov. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface The fate of Mosul, Iraq’s second- largest city, its largest Sunni- majority city, and the larg- est city captured by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), is critical to efforts to per- manently defeat the terrorist group and create a stable Iraq. This report focuses on the aftermath of the major combat operations in Mosul, the management of civilian needs (including returning home after displacement), and the requirements for achieving lasting stability in Mosul and other combat- affected areas of Iraq. The authors conducted exten- sive field research in Iraq at the local and national levels, including case studies of stabiliza- tion efforts after battles in major urban centers such as Ramadi, Fallujah, and Tikrit. The issues identified as related to Mosul also mirror the broader requirements for stability throughout the conflict- affected areas of Iraq. In addition, many of the chal- lenges and solutions identified will require action by the national government and policies that address the under lying issues, whether they pertain to sufficient prioritization and funding of programs, development of adequate professional security forces, or reconcili- ation mea sures to resolve conflicts among Iraq’s principal po liti cal groups. The recom- mendations and prioritization scheme offered in the final chapter are thus directed at the national government of Iraq and the key stakeholders in the international community. The report should be helpful to planning efforts by the U.S., Iraqi, and Kurdis- tan regional governments, as well as the international community, which is playing a significant role through the United Nations, the Global Co ali tion to Counter ISIS, and bilateral efforts. The report makes a unique contribution by gathering timely primary source materials from key officials in government, military, and aid agen- cies with leadership responsibilities related to these issues; addressing the crosscutting humanitarian, stabilization, and po liti cal challenges; and offering recommendations that are crucial for the stabilization of Mosul and other areas to ensure that the cam- paign to defeat ISIS is ultimately successful. RAND Ventures RAND is a research organ ization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier, iii iv Making Victory Count after Defeating ISIS and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND Ventures is a vehicle for investing in policy solutions. Philanthropic con- tributions support our ability to take the long view, tackle tough and often- controversial topics, and share our findings in innovative and compelling ways. RAND’s research findings and recommendations are based on data and evidence, and therefore do not necessarily reflect the policy preferences or interests of its clients, donors, or supporters. Funding for this venture was made pos si ble by the in de pen dent research and devel- opment provisions of RAND’s contracts for the operation of its U.S. Department of Defense federally funded research and development centers. This research was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD). 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Contents Preface ................................................................................................. iii Figures, Table, and Boxes ..........................................................................vii Summary .............................................................................................. ix Acknowl edgments ................................................................................. xvii CHAPTER ONE Introduction ........................................................................................... 1 Study Purpose .......................................................................................... 1 Approach ................................................................................................ 2 An Overview of Mosul Before, During, and After ISIS ........................................... 4 Humanitarian Assistance and Stabilization ......................................................... 7 Organ ization of This Report .........................................................................10 CHAPTER TWO The Humanitarian Response ......................................................................11 Circumstances Inside East and West Mosul .......................................................11 Circumstances of the IDPs Generated by the Offensive .........................................14 Circumstances of the IDPs from 2014–2015 ..................................................... 20 Conclusion ............................................................................................ 22 CHAPTER THREE Postcombat Security Conditions ................................................................. 25 The Combat Phase ................................................................................... 26 Explosive Hazards .................................................................................... 28 Temporary Hold Forces After Mosul Clearing Operations ..................................... 34 Creating a Sustainable Police Force ................................................................ 37 Conclusion ............................................................................................ 39 CHAPTER FOUR Enabling Resumption of City Life ................................................................41 Public Ser vices .........................................................................................41 v vi Making Victory Count after Defeating ISIS Infrastructure ......................................................................................... 44 Housing ............................................................................................... 46 Economy ...............................................................................................49 Conclusion .............................................................................................51 CHAPTER FIVE Governance and Po liti cal Reconciliation .......................................................53 Overcoming a Bitter Legacy ........................................................................ 54 Governing Ninewa After ISIS ...................................................................... 56 Decentralization: Challenges and Promise .........................................................58 Reconciliation at the Local Level ...................................................................59 National Reconciliation ..............................................................................61 Conclusion .............................................................................................63 CHAPTER SIX Conclusion and Recommendations ............................................................. 65 Urgent Humanitarian Actions (0–3 Months) .................................................... 66 Expanded Stabilization (0–6 Months) ............................................................ 68 Governance and Po liti cal Reconciliation (0–12 Months) ........................................70 Financial Burden Sharing ............................................................................72 Looking Ahead ........................................................................................73