Issue 1347 4 January 2019 // USAF CSDS News and Analysis Issue 1347 // Feature Report “Russian Compliance with the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty: Background and Issues for Congress.” Published by Congressional Research Service; Updated Dec. 7, 2018 https://fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R43832.pdf The Trump Administration conducted an extensive review of the INF Treaty during 2017 to assess the potential security implications of Russia’s violation and to determine how the United States would respond going forward. On December 8, 2017—the 30th anniversary of the date when the treaty was signed—the Administration announced that the United States would implement an integrated response that included diplomatic, military, and economic measures. On October 20, 2018, President Trump announced that the United States would withdraw from INF, citing Russia’s noncompliance as a key factor in that decision. Congress is likely to continue to conduct oversight hearings on this issue, and to receive briefings on the status of Russia’s cruise missile program. It may also consider legislation authorizing U.S. military responses and supporting alternative diplomatic approaches. This report will be updated as needed. twitter.com/USAF_CSDS | au.af.mil/au/csds // 2 // USAF CSDS News and Analysis Issue 1347 // TABLE OF CONTENTS NUCLEAR WEAPONS SRNS Finalizes Transition Plans for MOX Facility and Resources, NNSA Says (Aiken Standard) The NNSA, a semiautonomous U.S. Department of Energy agency, oversees the MOX project. The agency canceled MOX in full, effective immediately, on Oct. 10, 2018. Warren, a Critic of Pentagon Bloat and Nukes, Heads to 2020 Presidential Run (Defense News) Warren has called for no new nuclear weapons, extending the New START Treaty through 2026 and a no- first-use policy for nuclear weapons. US COUNTER-WMD Navy Pushes Hypersonic Weapon Plan as Putin Boasts He Already Has Them (Military.com) The Air Force also has put a priority on hypersonics, reflecting the increasing concerns of the Pentagon that Russia and China have taken the lead on a technology that potentially poses the threat of making existing missile defense systems obsolete. Lockheed Martin Garners $1.8B Missile Contract (Homeland Preparedness News) PAC-3 missiles defend against incoming threats that include tactical ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and aircraft … US ARMS CONTROL Pompeo Warns Iran against Space Launches (The Hill) Iran last conducted a space launch in July 2017, when Tehran said it successfully launched a satellite. At the time, the State Department called the launch “provocative.” Trump Says He Expects to Meet Again Soon with North Korea’s Kim (VOA) "We really established a very good relationship," Trump said at a White House Cabinet meeting. "We'll probably have another meeting." COMMENTARY Is There a Glimmer of Hope for the INF Treaty? (Brookings) Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev signed the INF Treaty in 1987. It resulted in the elimination of some 2,700 U.S. and Soviet missiles. The Biggest Nuclear Threats of 2018 Will Follow Us into the New Year (Defense One) There was some positive news this year — most importantly the decreased possibility of war in Korea — but, overall it was bleak. Let’s get right to it. twitter.com/USAF_CSDS | au.af.mil/au/csds // 3 // USAF CSDS News and Analysis Issue 1347 // NUCLEAR WEAPONS Aiken Standard (Aiken, S.C.) SRNS Finalizes Transition Plans for MOX Facility and Resources, NNSA Says By Colin Demarest Jan. 2, 2018 Savannah River Nuclear Solutions has completed and submitted plans regarding the transition and turnover of the Mixed Oxide Fuel Fabrication Facility as well as the venture's related equipment, materials, property and data, among other things. SRNS, the Savannah River Site management and operations contractor, transmitted the plans to the National Nuclear Security Administration on Dec. 21, according to a senior NNSA spokesperson who issued a lengthy statement on the matter that same day. The NNSA, a semiautonomous U.S. Department of Energy agency, oversees the MOX project. The agency canceled MOX in full, effective immediately, on Oct. 10, 2018. The transition plan – to be reviewed and approved – is part of the MOX closeout process. The mothballing efforts were described as an "ongoing wind down" in a preface to the NNSA statement. MOX, located at the site, was designed to turn surplus weapons-grade plutonium into fuel for commercial nuclear reactors. The project was more than a decade in the making and was killed after years of political, financial and legal turmoil. Five months before the MOX contract was canceled, the NNSA and U.S. Department of Defense jointly recommended repurposing MOX's bones for an enduring plutonium pit production mission. Plutonium pits are grapefruit-sized nuclear weapon cores. "The government requires termination activities to be completed in the shortest timeframe and at minimal cost in alignment with budget availab… SRNS's plans include a transition timeline with "future use" in mind, according to the NNSA spokesperson. About one year of total MOX termination work is expected, according to an NNSA statement of work, which the Aiken Standard obtained late last year. "The government requires termination activities to be completed in the shortest time frame and at minimal cost in alignment with budget availability," the lengthy, and highly detailed, statement of work reads. The NNSA is working closely with SRNS and MOX Services, the MOX prime contractor, to "ensure an orderly and efficient transition," the spokesperson said. MOX employed about 1,700 people at the time of termination; more than 1,000 have now received layoff notices. Two more rounds of layoff notifications are to be issued by the end of January, according to a person familiar with the matter and project communications obtained by the Aiken Standard. SRNS spokespeople would not comment further on the plans when asked Wednesday. https://www.aikenstandard.com/news/srns-finalizes-transition-plans-for-mox-facility-and- resources-nnsa/article_2317b2e6-0e97-11e9-a471-77769df71c4d.html twitter.com/USAF_CSDS | au.af.mil/au/csds // 4 // USAF CSDS News and Analysis Issue 1347 // Return to top Defense News (Washington, D.C.) Warren, a Critic of Pentagon Bloat and Nukes, Heads to 2020 Presidential Run By Joe Gould Jan. 1, 2018 WASHINGTON — Sen. Elizabeth Warren, an advocate of reining in America’s military budget and commitments around the globe, on Monday took the first major step toward launching a widely anticipated campaign for the presidency. While Warren’s banking her reputation as a populist fighter can help her navigate a Democratic field that could include nearly two dozen candidates, she has also boosted her global affairs and national security credentials in recent years, in part by joining the Senate Armed Services Committee. “No matter what our differences, most of us want the same thing,” the 69-year-old Massachusetts Democrat said in a video, which highlights her family’s history in Oklahoma and military family ties. “To be able to work hard, play by the same set of rules and take care of the people we love: That’s what I’m fighting for and that’s why today I’m launching an exploratory committee for president.” The announcement comes weeks after Warren made a foreign policy speech at American University calling for a smaller defense budget, a pullout of U.S. troops from Afghanistan and a “no first use” nuclear weapons policy. By linking her foreign policy with her left leaning economic views, Warren may win over liberal primary voters, but it’s unclear how this will play with moderate voters concerned with terrorism and actions by Russia and China. “We need to refocus our international economic policies so that they benefit all Americans, not just wealthy elites,” she said in the American University speech. “At the same time, we must refocus our security policies by reining in unsustainable and ill-advised military commitments and adapt our strategies overseas for the new challenges we’ll face in this coming century.” Warren has championed defense spending in her home state, but she used the speech to condemn America’s “bloated defense budget,” saying it’s time to end “the stranglehold of … the so-called Big Five defense contractors” as evidenced by President Donald Trump’s friendliness toward Saudi Arabia and its war in Yemen. “The defense industry will inevitably have a seat at the table — but they shouldn’t get to own the table,” Warren said. “It is time to identify which programs actually benefit American security in the 21st century, and which programs merely line the pockets of defense contractors — then pull out a sharp knife and make some cuts.” Where to cut? Warren has called for no new nuclear weapons, extending the New START Treaty through 2026 and a no-first-use policy for nuclear weapons. When Trump is undermining arms control agreements, she said, the U.S. “should not spend over a trillion dollars to modernize our nuclear arsenal." Warren burst onto the national scene a decade ago during the financial crisis with calls for greater consumer protections. She quickly became one of the party’s more prominent liberals, even as she sometimes fought with Obama administration officials over their response to the market turmoil. twitter.com/USAF_CSDS | au.af.mil/au/csds // 5 // USAF CSDS News and Analysis Issue 1347 // Now, as a likely presidential contender, she is making an appeal to the party’s base. Her video did not touch on foreign policy or national security, but noted the economic challenges facing people of color and showed images of a women’s march and Warren’s participation at an LGBT event. In an email to supporters, Warren said she’d more formally announce a campaign plan early in 2019. Warren is the most prominent Democrat yet to make a move toward a presidential bid and has long been a favorite target for Trump, particularly amid controversy over her claims of Native American heritage.