Report on the Assessment of Early Warning Systems in the Maldives August 2005 Asian Disaster Reduction Center Contents 1. Introduction ···································································································································· 1 1.1 Background ······························································································································· 1 1.2 Rationale for the Establishment of a Multi-Hazard Early Warning System ····························· 1 1.3 Objectives ································································································································· 2 1.4 Scope of Assessment ·············································································································· 2 1.5 Assessment Team Members········································································································ 2 2. Assessment of the Early Warning System ······················································································ 3 2.1 Introduction ······························································································································ 3 2.2 Activities ··································································································································· 3 2.3 Geographical Background ········································································································ 5 2.4 Meteorological Background ····································································································· 5 2.5 Seismological Background ······································································································· 6 2.6 Historical Records of Natural Disasters ··················································································· 7 2.7 Wave and Tide Monitoring ······································································································· 7 2.8 Department of Meteorology of the Maldives ··········································································· 8 2.9 Existing International Tsunami Early Warning Systems ·························································· 9 2.10 Current Early Warning System in the Maldives ········································································11 3. Assessment of Public Information Delivery ······················································································37 3.1 Field Survey ································································································································ 37 3.2 Sample Structure ··························································································································39 3.3 Results ·········································································································································41 4. Conclusions and Recommendations ··································································································73 4.1 Early Warning System ·················································································································73 4.2 Public Information Delivery ········································································································99 Appendix A. Questionnaire for Residents (English) ······················································································· A-1 B. Questionnaire for Government Officials (English) ···································································· A-8 C. Questionnaire for Residents (Dhivehi) ······················································································ A-13 D. Questionnaire for Government Officials (Dhivehi) ··································································· A-18 i 1. Introduction 1.1 Background The disaster risk scenario of the Maldives can generally be described as moderate. Nonetheless, its vulnerability to natural disasters was brought to the fore when it was hit by the devastating tsunami of December 26, 2004. The Maldives is also occasionally prone to storms, droughts, heavy rains and high waves caused by cyclones in the Southern Indian Ocean. Given that the Maldives is a nation of islands whose highest elevation is no more than two meters above sea level, the country is at particular risk from rising sea levels associated with climate change. The small islands (on average 16 hectares), with their flat topography and very low elevation, also suffer from damage to their ecosystems (coral reef), land loss and beach erosion due to sea level rise, changes in air and sea surface temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns. The predominant dependence of the country upon the tourism and fisheries sectors enhances economic and social vulnerability to sea-related hazards. In response to the UN Flash Appeal for the Maldives, the government of Germany has granted US$ 1,300,000 for a Disaster Risk Management Programme. The key elements of such a program will include the development of early warning systems (TEWS), preparedness planning, disaster management policy development, emergency response capacity enhancement, safe area development, vulnerability assessment and other projects for dealing with the risk of natural hazards. This Disaster Risk Management Programme will also be closely synergized with the National Plans for Environmental Management (NEAP) and Climate Change Adaptation. Lessons must be learned from the recent tsunami disaster and activities must be initiated that build and strengthen disaster risk management system in this country. An end-to-end review of the existing early warning systems - for the development of a holistic EWS in Maldives - need to be reviewed as part of the preliminary ‘stock-taking’ stage of the DRM Programme 1.2 Rationale for the establishment of a Multi-Hazard Early Warning System An EWS is the key to minimizing damage in the event of a disaster. Access to information about the probability of a hazard and the extent of damage it could cause is therefore imperative. Such a process requires not only technical and sophisticated warning systems, but also an equally established and politically responsive line of control that could make decisions about evacuation procedures if required. The ability to communicate the threat of a disaster in Maldives is a special concern given the spread of the population over a large number of islands, many of whom have limited communications access. While the proposed Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System would take three to five years to develop, a national tsunami warning system (as part of a multi-hazard early warning system) linked with national tropical cyclone and storm surge (high wave) alerts is now being established. An integral component of an EWS will be the provision of community systems for facilitating protective action (evacuation to emergency shelters, movement to high ground) after the communication of alert warnings. An interim arrangement (based on available capacities) will be set up in the Meteorological Department/Emergency Operations Centre (EOC) and will be linked to the warning systems of neighboring countries. Systematic enhancements will also be made to the capacities of the Meteorological Department/EOC and its connections and working relationships with other counterpart agencies, including regional and national organizations. In 1993, a Wave Monitoring Program was conducted by the former Ministry of Public Works and Labor. Efforts to ascertain the current status of that programme and similar initiatives that may have existed need to be undertaken. The participation of Meteorological Department/EOC officials in regional planning and consultation meetings also facilitates the strengthening of an early warning system. A workshop on early warning systems in Male also helps in establishing contacts and developing working relationships with counterpart agencies in the region. In the medium to long-term (two to five years), a more sophisticated national system has to be set up and integrated with the proposed Indian Ocean Tsunami Early Warning System. 1 1.3 Objectives Following are the key objectives of the assessment of EWS in the Maldives: 9 To take stock of existing capacities of relevant departments and agencies involved in early warnings in the Maldives: This includes not only the agencies responsible for forecasts and warnings (meteorology and hydrology) but also intermediaries (radio, TV, print media and other communication channels) and end users of early warnings. 9 To identify gaps in the current early warning systems: This includes areas where capacities need to be enhanced, such as the scientific and technical mechanisms, coordination and management of information systems, policy-making procedures and effective information dissemination capabilities. 9 To recommend a set of actions and corresponding resource requirements that need to be undertaken to enhance the effectiveness of early warning systems in the Maldives 1.4 Scope of Assessment Following are the broad sets of activities that were included in the assessment: ¾ Review of existing documentation: The assessment team reviewed all existing documentation on early warning and preparedness mechanisms that exist in the Maldives. This included a review of the Wave Monitoring Program established by the Ministry of Public Works and Labor back in 1993. ¾ Interactions and discussions with