Annual Flood Report-2017 GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN MINISTRY OF WATER RESOURCES ANNUAL FLOOD REPORT 2017 OFFICE OF THE CHIEF ENGINEERING ADVISOR & CHAIRMAN FEDERAL FLOOD COMMISSION ISLAMABAD Federal Flood Commission, Ministry of Water Resources Page 1 Annual Flood Report-2017 ANNUAL FLOOD REPORT-2017 District Sialkot (Punjab) Karachi (Sindh) District Chitral (KP) District Quetta (Balochistan) District Gilgit (Gilgit-Baltistan) District Bagh (Azad Jammu & Kashmir) OFFICE OF THE CHIEF ENGINEERING ADVISOR & CHAIRMAN FEDERAL FLOOD COMMISSION ISLAMABAD Federal Flood Commission, Ministry of Water Resources Page 2 Annual Flood Report-2017 TABLE OF CONTENTS SR. DESCRIPTION PAGE NO. NO. Executive Summary 5 Acknowledgement 9 1. FLOODS IN GENERAL PERSPECTIVE 10 1.1 Flood Problem in Perspective 11 1.2 Floods in Pakistan 11 1.3 Flood Control Objective and Need 13 1.4 Flood Problem, Physiographic Dimensions 13 1.5 Irrigation Network of Pakistan 14 1.6 Flood protection facilities in Pakistan 16 1.7 Impact of climate change and global warming on flood 17 management 1.8 Historical flood events in Pakistan 18 1.9 Integrated approach in flood management 20 1.10 Flood and development process 20 1.11 Traditional flood management options 21 1.12 Challenges of flood management 23 1.13 Rapid urbanization 23 1.14 Climate variability and change 24 2. FEDERAL FLOOD COMMISSION 25 2.1 Historic Background 26 2.2 Functions of Federal Flood Commission 26 2.3 Achievements of Federal Flood Commission 26 2.4 National Flood Protection Plan –IV 29 2.5 Normal/Emergent Flood Programme 31 2.6 Summary of GOP Investment on Flood Protection Works 31 3. FLOOD MANAGEMENT MECHANISM 33 3.1 Organizations involved and responsibilities 34 3.2 Flood Warning Dissemination System 39 4. PREPARDNESS/ CONTIGENCY PLANNING FOR 40 MONSOON SEASON 2017 4.1 1st pre-flood Meeting of FFC held on 28.03.2017 41 4.2 Quarterly meeting of FFC held on 10.05.2017 to review status of 43 compliance of directions given by the Honourable Supreme Court of Pakistan on the recommendations of Flood Inquiry Commission. 4.3 Meeting to review the priority projects/ activities which were likely 47 to be carried out during 1st year of implementation of NFPP-IV, besides, progress made on the decisions of 1st pre monsoon season 2017 meeting of FFC held on 1st June 2017 4.4 Establishment of Flood Communication Cell 50 4.5 52nd Annual meeting of Federal Flood Commission held on 50 11.07.2017 4.6 Meeting of FFC to review the Existing SOPs of Tarbela Dam 53 Project held on 20.07.2017 Federal Flood Commission, Ministry of Water Resources Page 3 Annual Flood Report-2017 4.7 Special meeting of FFC related to various issues pending with PID 54 & FLAs held on 21.07.2017 4.8 Post Flood Meeting of FFC held on 22.11.2017 55 4.9 Quarterly meeting of FFC held on 05.12.2017 to review status of 57 compliance of directions given by the Honourable Supreme Court of Pakistan on the recommendations of Flood Inquiry Commission. 4.10 Other activities/ initiatives under taken by Federal Flood 59 Commission 5. FLOODS-2017 62 5.1 Seasonal Rainfall Forecast for Monsoon Season 2017 issued by 63 PMD 5.2 Floods /Rains during Monsoon Season 2017 63 5.3 Country-Wide Losses/ Damages Due to 2017 Rains/Floods 66 5.4 Flood peaks recorded during major historical floods 66 5.5 2017-Rains/flood damages occurred to infrastructure and need for 68 their restoration and rehabilitation LIST OF TABLES Table # Description Page # Table 1 Existing Flood Protection infrastructure in Pakistan 16 Table 2 Historical Flood events experienced in Pakistan 19 Table 3 Budget demand by the Provinces & Federal Line Agencies, 30 budget allocated & released during past years Table 4 Summary of Federal Investment on Flood Protection Works 32 Table 5 Country-Wide Losses/Damages Due to Rain/Flood 2017 67 Table 6 Historic Flood Events & Flood Peaks recorded in major rivers 69-70 Table 7 Flood peaks during Monsoon Season 2017 71 LIST OF FIGURES Figure # Description Page # Figure 1 Schematic Diagram of Indus Basin Irrigation System 15 Figure 2 Total direct losses in Pakistan due to floods 18 Figure 3 Area weighted (%) rainfall during (July-September) 2017 64 Figure 4 Area weighted (%) rainfall during July 2017 65 Figure 5 Area weighted (%) rainfall during August2017 66 Figure 6 Area weighted (%) rainfall during September 2017 67 LIST OF APPENDICES APPENDIX # DESCRIPTION Page # Appendix-I Flood protection schemes taken up under Normal/ Emergent 72 Flood Programme of PSDP (2014-15), (2015-16), (2016-17) & (2017-18) Appendix-II Major Rivers Flow Data during Monsoon Season 2017 90 Appendix-III Monthly Rainfall Data (June –September 2017): Source 107 PMD Appendix-IV Escapages below Kotri Barrage (1976-77 to 2016-17): 117 Source IRSA Federal Flood Commission, Ministry of Water Resources Page 4 Annual Flood Report-2017 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Pakistan is one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world. Flood constitutes one of the world’s most serious environmental hazards associated with global climate change, as witnessed by the Pakistan during past 6-7 years. Under future climate change scenarios, country is likely to experience increased variability of river flows due to increased variability of precipitation and melting of glaciers. Demand for irrigation water may increase due to higher rates of evaporation. Urban storm drainage networks may also be stressed by torrential rainfall and flash floods during monsoon season. Sea level rise and storm surges may adversely affect coastal infrastructure and livelihoods in coming years. Concerted efforts like improved weather and flood forecasting including warning systems, retrofitting of critical infrastructure and construction of new flood protection embankments/shore protection works, construction of additional flood water storages, development or use of crop varieties with greater heat and drought tolerance, modernizing irrigation techniques, employing water-saving technologies and integrated watershed management are required to mitigate the threats due to global climate change. The National Climate Change Policy of 2012 is Pakistan’s guiding document on climate change, setting out the goal of achieving climate-resilient development for the country through mainstreaming climate change in the economically and socially vulnerable sectors of the country. As described in its Nationally Determined Contribution to the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Pakistan intends to reduce up to 20% of its 2030 projected greenhouse gas emissions, subject to availability of international grants to meet the cumulative abatement costing around US $ 40 billion. The country’s adaptation needs have been identified to range between US $7 billion to US $14 billion per year. Pakistan has consecutively faced series of flood events during the past 6-7 years i.e. since 2010, which indicates that flood has now become a regular feature in the country. This is exacerbated by the inadequate surface water storage capacity for absorbing flood peaks, chronic and increasing threat of encroachments in flood plains, inadequate discharge capacity of some of Barrages/Bridges, inadequate budget allocation under PSDP and Provincial ADP for execution of flood projects, weakness in flood defenses due to improper maintenance of existing flood protection structures and importantly a distorted natural drainage network. Pakistan has suffered a cumulative financial loss of more than US$ 38 Billion during the past 70 years. Around 12,502 people lost their lives, some 197,273 villages damaged/ destroyed and an area more than 616,598 Sq.km was affected due to 25 major flood events. The 2010 floods were worst flooding in the past about 80 years in the region (Table-2). Prior to 1977, the Provincial Governments were responsible for planning and execution of flood protection works. Disastrous floods of 1973 & 1976 caused heavy loss to life and property. Heavy losses to the economy due to those floods were discussed in the Inter- Provincial Conference held in January 1977. It was felt that the existing flood protection facilities and planning were inadequate to provide effective protective measures for the country; hence, it was decided to establish Federal Flood Commission (FFC) for integrated flood management on country wide-basis. Federal Flood Commission, Ministry of Water Resources Page 5 Annual Flood Report-2017 Since its establishment, FFC has prepared three National Flood Protection Plans, i.e. National Flood Protection Plan-I (1978-88), National Flood Protection Plan-II (1988- 1998) & National Flood Protection Plan-III (1998-2008), which were executed through Provincial Irrigation Departments and Federal Line Agencies. Besides this, two mega Flood Damages Restoration Projects (1988-FDRP & 1992 &1994-FDRP) had also been undertaken by FFC. A total investment of more than Rs 30.00 billion has been made on construction/ rehabilitation of around 5,483 flood protection structures including up- gradation of country’s existing Flood Forecasting & Warning System through PSDP/Foreign Aided Programme during the past 39 years (Table-4). Work on preparation of National Flood Protection Plan-IV was started in year 2006-07, but it could not be approved for implementation at that time due to low priority given to Flood Sector as result of drought like conditions over the country. Due to large scale damages as a result of 2010 floods, followed by subsequent flood events during 2011 & 2012, the need for investment in flood sector gained importance. Hence, Federal Flood Commission re-started working on formulation of National Flood Protection Plan-IV. For that purpose, consultants were engaged in May 2013 through World Bank Funded Water Sector Capacity Building & Advisory Services Project (WCAP). The National Flood Protection Plan-IV (Ten-year Plan) had been prepared in close consultation with all stakeholders at Federal and Provincial Governments level keeping in view the lessons learnt from past flood events.