Blowin’ in the wind? Possibilities of the International Maritime Organization to promote the uptake of wind propulsion in international shipping Isabelle Rojon [email protected] 3614174 Postal address: Environmental Policy and Management Poortenaarlaan 50 30 ECTS 3431 RJ Nieuwegein Supervisor: Dr. Carel Dieperink Utrecht University Faculty of Geosciences March 6, 2013 Acknowledgements The past few months have been a very interesting, yet challenging journey for me and I would like to thank everyone that supported me in taking it. First of all, I would like to thank my supervisor Dr. Carel Dieperink for his critical remarks, continuous support and most importantly, for believing in me and my ideas. My thanks also go out to Dr. Walter Vermeulen for his feedback on my research proposal, which greatly improved the focus of this research. Thank you very much to all my interviewees. You truly brought my research to life and made it a very joyful experience. By sharing your experience and knowledge with me, I learned so much about the shipping industry and became really fascinated by it. I know now that I want to work on making shipping more sustainable which is much more than I could have ever expected from my thesis. So thank you very much indeed! Special thanks go to Dr. Simona Negro (Utrecht University) who helped me overcome moments of severe theoretical and methodological confusion, to Dr. Tristan Smith (University College London) without whose help half of my interviews probably would not have taken place, and to Edo Donkers (Stichting Noordzee) who took the time to review my thesis and enrich it with helpful comments. I hope my thesis can live up to all your time and support! Last but not least, I want to thank all my beloved ones. Thank you to all my friends and fellow students who have enriched my life both personally and intellectually. I feel very privileged to be part of such an amazing and inspiring group of people. A heartfelt thank you goes to my family who supported me relentlessly and stood together during the many dark moments the past few years have brought us. Max, thank you so much for being the perfect sounding board for my ideas, for keeping me sane and most importantly, for bringing love, happiness and just so much fun to my life! I could not have done it without you. Executive summary International shipping transports around 90 percent of global commerce and is of major importance for the global economy. Whilst it is the most efficient and environmentally friendly mode of transport, CO2 emissions from shipping activities still account for an estimated three percent of global emissions. As a consequence, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has recently introduced mandatory measures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from shipping, making emission cuts not only a normative, but also a legal requirement. One means of significantly reducing fuel consumption and thereby GHG emissions from shipping are wind propulsion technologies (i.e. towing kites, Flettner rotors and sails) - yet current market uptake is very low. Therefore, the aim of this research was to identify the possibilities of the IMO as the main regulatory body in international shipping to promote the uptake of wind propulsion technologies. To this end, the theoretical approach of technological innovation systems was adopted. This approach combines structural system components with so-called system functions which represent the dynamics underlying structural changes in the system. The fulfillment of these functions is considered important for the development and diffusion of innovations. First, the level of function fulfillment was evaluated, followed by the identification of structural drivers and barriers influencing function fulfillment. Third, the IMO’s governing capacities were analyzed, enabling the formulation of policy recommendations tailored to the IMO. Data was collected from newspaper articles, company websites and an expert survey (step 1), 14 semi-structured interviews (step 2), and the review of scientific articles (step 3). Across all three wind propulsion technologies, function fulfillment was found to be low or medium, at best, which inhibits further technological development and diffusion. Several structural barriers exist, including, amongst others, a lack of policies and incentive schemes promoting wind propulsion, lack of financial resources, insufficient collaboration among different actor groups and conservative and risk-averse attitudes prevalent in the maritime industry. The number and severity of the structural barriers outweigh those of the mostly emerging structural drivers. Next, it could be asserted that in order to promote technological development and diffusion, policy interventions should focus on stimulating the development and diffusion of knowledge and help mobilize resources. Yet, even though the IMO is well- suited to facilitate knowledge development and diffusion, which it could achieve by establishing a working or correspondence group on wind propulsion, it is less suited to mobilize resources. Nonetheless, it is suggested that the IMO intensifies efforts in relation to the introduction of market-based mechanisms (MBMs), as they increase the economic viability of wind propulsion and can provide funds to be used for research and development activities on low-carbon propulsion technologies. Until the introduction of MBMs, the IM could set up a temporary fund for the same purpose, with financial contributions from international donor organizations, national governments and industry parties. Key words: international shipping; climate change mitigation; eco-innovation; technological innovation systems; wind propulsion; international environmental governance; governing capacities Table of Contents Figures .................................................................................................................................. 3 Tables ................................................................................................................................... 3 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 4 1.1 Environmental impacts of shipping ............................................................................... 4 1.2 The international shipping industry ............................................................................... 4 1.3 Possibilities to ‘green’ the shipping industry ................................................................. 5 1.4 Problem analysis and knowledge gap .......................................................................... 6 1.5 Research objective and main research question .......................................................... 7 1.6 Research scope ........................................................................................................... 8 1.7 Outline ......................................................................................................................... 9 2 Theoretical framework .......................................................................................................10 2.1 Theoretical insights into technological transitions ........................................................10 2.2 Systems and system dynamics ...................................................................................11 2.3 Innovation systems .....................................................................................................11 2.4 Main components of Technological Innovation Systems .............................................12 2.5 Functions of Technological Innovation Systems ..........................................................13 2.6 Interactions between system structure and functions ..................................................16 2.7 Identifying structural barriers and drivers to TIS development .....................................17 2.8 Tailoring policy recommendations to recipient’s governing capacities .........................19 2.9 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................21 3 Methods and data collection ..............................................................................................22 3.1 Assessing TIS development ........................................................................................22 3.2 Explaining TIS development: identification of structural drivers and barriers ...............24 3.3 Assessing the IMO’s governing capacities ..................................................................24 4 Towing kites ......................................................................................................................25 4.1 Description of the technology ......................................................................................25 4.2 Structural analysis of the kite TIS ................................................................................25 4.3 Narrative .....................................................................................................................27 4.4 Event analysis .............................................................................................................28 4.5 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................34 5 Flettner rotors ....................................................................................................................36