WATER FRAMEWORK DIRECTIVE – The Application of Mathematical Models as Decision-Support Tools (2002-W-DS-11) TABLE OF CONTENTS Details of project partners ii Acknowledgements iii Synthesis Report 1. Introduction 1.1 The Water Framework Directive and the aims of integrated management of water systems. 1.2 Objective of the Study 1.3 Project structure 1.4 Why model? 1.5 Good and bad models 1.6 Model Uncertainty 1.7 Errors and classification schemes 1.8 Linking model domains 2. Information Needs and Application of GIS 2.1 Introduction 2.2 GIS specification for the WFD (EU Level) 2.3 WFD GIS Specification for Ireland 2.4 Model Domains 2.4.1 Hydromorphology & Typology 2.4.2 Pressure - State Models 2.4.3 State - Impact Models 2.4.4 Artificial Intelligence 3. An Overview of Models 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Hydromorphology and typology 3.2.1 Rivers 3.2.2 Lakes 3.2.3 Transitional waters 3.2.4 Heavily Modified Water Bodies 3.3 Pressure-State models 3.3.1 Introduction 3.3.2 Land and water process catchment models 3.3.3 Transport from land to water: empirical “black-box” models. 3.3.4 Linking catchment with in-stream hydrological and water quality models 3.3.5 Modelling nitrogen 3.3.6 Current use of nutrient models in The Republic of Ireland 3.3.7 Modelling nutrients and particle transport in lakes 3.3.8 Modelling Acid status 3.3.9 Dangerous substances 3.4: State-Impact models 3.4.1 Introduction 3.4.2 Effect-Load-Sensitivity (ELS) Models 3.4.3 Lakes and Rivers 3.4.4 Transitional waters 3.4.5 Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs) 4. Artificial Intelligence-Based Models of Ecological Health 4.1 Introduction 4.2 The Basic Foundations of the AI Approach 4.3 MIR-max: A System for the Development of Pattern Recognition Models 4.4 RPDS: An Operational ‘River Pollution Diagnostic System’ 4.5 The Development of Models based on Plausible Reasoning 4.6 RPBBN: An Operational ‘River Pollution Bayesian Belief Network’ 4.7 Tests on AI-based Models 4.8 Advantages and Uses of AI-based Models 4.9 Summary of Development Systems and Operational Models 5. Groundwaters 5.1 Requirements of the WFD with respect to groundwater modelling 5.2 Characterisation of Groundwater bodies 5.2.1 Delineation of groundwater bodies in Ireland 5.2.2 Modelling in the Characterisation process 5.3 Identification and estimation of Pressure- State relationships 5.4 Initial assessment of pressures and their risk to groundwater bodies 5.5 Modelling for Initial and Further Characterisation and Pressure- State Estimation 5.6 Choice of Model 5.7 Purpose and Scale 5.8 Representation of the Flow System 5.9 Model characteristics 5.10 Type of model 5.11 Availability of Data, Interpolation and Estimation of Parameters by Calibration 5.12 Identifying uncertainty in the modelling process. 5.13 Level of validation of model 5.14 Interface of models with Geographical Information System (GIS) data 5.15 Initial Characterisation 5.16 Further Characterisation 5.17 Pressure State Modelling 5.18 Identification and reversal of upward trends in groundwater pollutants 6. Models as Decision Support Tools 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Science, policy and modelling 6.3 Use of models in decision support 6.4 Key components of the Directive where modelling is likely of use. 6.5 A view of risk 6.6 A view on monitoring 6.7 Overall Conclusions References Annexes to report Environmental RTDI Programme 2000–2006 WATER FRAMEWORK DIRECTIVE – An Assessment of Mathematical Modelling in its Implementation in Ireland (2002-W-DS-11) Synthesis Report Prepared for the Environmental Protection Agency by Department of Zoology, Trinity College Dublin Authors: Kenneth Irvine, Paul Mills, Michael Bruen, William Walley, Michael Hartnett, Andrew Black, Suzanne Tynan, Robert Duck, Olivia Bragg, John Rowen, James Wilson, Paul Johnston and Constanze O'Toole ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY An Ghníomhaireacht um Chaomhnú Comhshaoil PO Box 3000, Johnstown Castle, Co. Wexford, Ireland Telephone: +353 53 60600 Fax: +353 53 60699 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.epa.ie © Environmental Protection Agency 2005 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report has been prepared as part of the Environmental Research Technological Development and Innovation Programme under the Productive Sector Operational Programme 2000–2006. The programme is financed by the Irish Government under the National Development Plan 2000–2006. It is administered on behalf of the Department of the Environment, Heritage and Local Government by the Environmental Protection Agency which has the statutory function of co-ordinating and promoting environmental research. The authors would like to acknowledge the assistance of the following people for their input and support to this project: Larry Stapleton (EPA), Helen Walsh (EPA), Donal Daly (GSI), Garret Kilroy (EPA), Eleanor Jennings (TCD), Seppo Rekolainenen (SYKE), Paul Whitehead (University of Reading), Brian Rippey (University of Ulster), Nick Holdon (UCD), David Gowring (Open University), Norman Allott (TCD), Ray O'Dywer (South Tipperary County Council), Dennis McGuire (South Tipperary County Council), Kieran O'Keefe (MC O'Sullivan) and Ian Donohue (TCD). We thank Seppo Rekolainen of the Finnish Environment Agency for discussions and guidance on the application of the DPSIR concept, and South Tipperary County Council, MC O'Sullivan and the Three Rivers Project for permission to incorporate descriptions of river models into the annex of models. DISCLAIMER Although every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the material contained in this publication, complete accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Neither the Environmental Protection Agency nor the author(s) accept any responsibility whatsoever for loss or damage occasioned or claimed to have been occasioned, in part or in full, as a consequence of any person acting, or refraining from acting, as a result of a matter contained in this publication. All or part of this publication may be reproduced without further permission, provided the source is acknowledged. ENVIRONMENTAL RTDI PROGRAMME 2000–2006 Published by the Environmental Protection Agency, Ireland ISBN:1-84095-157-5 ii Details of Project Partners Kenneth Irvine (Co-ordinator) Paul Mills James Wilson and Constanze O’Toole Compass Informatics Department of Zoology/Centre for the Environment 19 Nassau Street Trinity College Dublin 2 Dublin 2 Ireland Ireland Tel: +353 1 670561 Tel: +353 1 6081366 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Michael Bruen William Walley Department of Civil Engineering Centre for Intelligent Environmental Systems University College Dublin School of Computing Earlsfort Terrace Staffordshire University Dublin 2 Beaconside Ireland Stafford, ST18 0DG UK Tel: +353 1 7067378 Tel: +44 1785 353510 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Michael Hartnett Andrew Black, Robert Duck, Olivia Bragg MarCon Computations International Ltd and John Rowan Unit 7, IDA Innovation Centre Department of Geography Upper Newcastle University of Dundee Galway Dundee DD1 4HN Ireland UK Tel: 353 91 583543 Tel: +44 1382 344433 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Suzanne Tynan and Paul Johnston Dept of Civil, Structural and Environmental Engineering Trinity College Dublin 2 Ireland Tel: 353 1 6082217 E-mail: [email protected] iii Synthesis Report Table of Contents Acknowledgements ii Disclaimer ii Details of Project Partners iii 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Objective of the Study 2 2 Information Needs and Application of GIS 3 3 An Overview of Models 5 3.1 The Hydrological Cycle and Hydromorphology 5 3.2 Pressure–State Models and Model Structure 6 3.3 Water Flow Through Catchments 8 3.4 Modelling Nutrients in Lakes 9 3.5 State–Impact Models 9 3.6 Fish 11 3.7 Ecosystem Models 11 3.8 Alien Species 11 3.9 Palaeolimnology 11 4 Artificial Intelligence 12 5 Groundwaters 13 6 Models as Decision Support Tools 14 6.1 Conclusions and Summary 14 v 1 Introduction EC Directive 2000/60/EC establishing a framework for help realise the technical requirements of the WFD. Such Community action in the field of water policy, commonly modelling is a likely feature of implementation of all of the known as the Water Framework Directive (WFD), aims to technical Articles that can support the overall objectives of prevent further deterioration and to protect and enhance the WFD (Article 1) to meet the environmental objectives the status of aquatic ecosystems throughout the outlined in Article 4. European Member States by 2015. The WFD needs to classify waterbodies based on assessment of ecological A conceptual framework identifying the Drivers, elements, including the hydromorphological and chemical Pressures, State, Impact and Response (DPSIR), within conditions that support those elements, and, for which to apply modelling techniques, can help clarify the groundwaters, quantitative and chemical status of the relationships between components of ecological change waterbody. The realisation of the demands of the WFD in aquatic systems and the wetlands that depend on those requires development and implementation of a number of systems. The links between the components of the technical tasks that relate to characterisation of DPSIR framework equate to an assessment of the risk of catchments, monitoring procedures, establishing the enhanced pollutant mobility, the effect of a relationship between catchment pressures and impacts hydromorphological alteration, and the response of on aquatic systems, and implementation of remediation biological elements. Adoption of a well-structured measures where waterbodies are considered to be at risk assessment