DOCKETED Docket Number: 19-IEPR-03 Project Title: Electricity and Natural Gas Demand Forecast TN #: 231545 Transcript of 12-2-2019 Workshop Re 2019 Revised Natural Electricity Document Title: and Natural Gas Demand Forecast Description: N/A Filer: Cody Goldthrite Organization: California Energy Commission Submitter Role: Commission Staff Submission Date: 1/16/2020 8:53:43 AM Docketed Date: 1/16/2020 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION COMMISSIONER WORKSHOP In the Matter of: ) Docket No. 19-IEPR-03 ) 2019 Revised Electricity and ) RE: 2019 Revised Natural Gas Demand Forecast ) Electricity and ) Natural Gas Demand _____________________________ ) Forecast CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION (CEC) WARREN-ALQUIST STATE ENERGY BUILDING ART ROSENFELD HEARING ROOM, FIRST FLOOR 1516 NINTH STREET SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA MONDAY, DECEMBER 2, 2019 10:00 A.M. Reported by: Peter Petty 1 California Reporting, LLC (510) 313-0610 APPEARANCES COMMISSIONERS PRESENT: Janea S. Scott, Vice Chair Andrew McAllister, Commissioner Karen Douglas, Commissioner Patty Monahan, Commissioner Ken Rider, Advisor to Chair Hochschild CEC STAFF PRESENT: Matt Coldwell Ingrid Neumann Cary Garcia Mark Palmere Bob McBride Elena Giyenko Aniss Bahrenian Sudhakar Konala Nick Fugate Mike Jaske Rosemary Avalos, Public Advisor’s Office PUBLIC COMMENT V. John White Ken Schiermeyer, SDG&E Delphine Hou, CAISO 2 California Reporting, LLC (510) 313-0610 INDEX Page 1. Call to Order 4 2. Forecast Overview 9 Cary Garcia 3. Transportation Forecast 63 Mark Palmere, Bob McBride, Aniss Bahrenian 4. Self-Generation and Storage 110 Sudhakar Konala 5. Hourly Forecast 159 Nick Fugate 6. Exploratory Fuel Substitution analysis ?? Mike Jaske 7. Public Comments 177 8. Adjournment 211 1 3 California Reporting, LLC (510) 313-0610 1 P R O C E E D I N G S 2 10:06 A.M. 3 SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA, MONDAY, DECEMBER 2, 2019 4 MR. COLDWELL: All right. Good morning, 5 everybody. Welcome back from Thanksgiving holiday, 6 hopefully everybody had a good one. 7 So my name is Matt Coldwell, I’m the manager of 8 the Demand Analysis Office here at the Energy Commission. 9 I’m filling in for Heather this morning who usually leads 10 these IEPR meetings. So I’ll try my best to do a good 11 job in her stead. 12 So just quickly I’m going to go over just a few 13 housekeeping items to start with. So the restrooms are 14 just right outside the doors here to the left in the 15 atrium. If there’s an emergency and we need to evacuate 16 the building, just please follow staff out to Roosevelt 17 Park which is located diagonally across the street from 18 the building here. 19 Just want to mention today’s workshop is being 20 broadcast through our WebEx conferencing system. And 21 parties should be aware that you are being recorded, if 22 you get up and make comments. So we’ll post the audio 23 recording and the written transcript on the Energy 24 Commission’s website in about a month. 25 At the end of the workshop there will be an 4 California Reporting, LLC (510) 313-0610 1 opportunity for public comments and so we’re going to ask 2 parties to limit those comments to about three minutes. 3 For those of you in the room that like to make comments, 4 you can fill out a blue card and give it to me or give it 5 to the Public Advisor Rosemary there in the back, and 6 then when it’s your turn to speak, just come up to the 7 center podium here, the microphone, and give -- it’s also 8 helpful to introduce yourself so the court reporter has 9 your name. 10 For WebEx participants, you can use the raise 11 your hand feature that WebEx provides if you want to make 12 a comment, and we will call on you during the public 13 comment period. You can also use that same feature to 14 lower your hands in case you want to withdraw your 15 comment. 16 Materials for this meeting are available on the 17 website. Hard copies are on the table at the entrance to 18 this hearing room. Written comments on today’s topics 19 are due on Monday, December 16th by 5 p.m. The workshop 20 notice explains the process for submitting those written 21 comments. And of course you can ask staff, too, if you 22 have any specific questions. 23 So finally, I’d like to thank our participants 24 for being here today, and then just request that you 25 identify yourselves before speaking. This is help -- 5 California Reporting, LLC (510) 313-0610 1 this is helpful for those of us in the room, for folks 2 participating remotely, and of course for our court 3 reporter. 4 So we’re here today to talk about the 2019 5 Electricity and Natural Gas Demand Forecast. We’ll also 6 have a presentation on our Transportation Energy Demand 7 Forecast this morning too. But I’ll -- with that, I’ll 8 turn it over to the commissioners for opening remarks. 9 VICE CHAIR SCOTT: Great. Good morning, and 10 welcome everybody. Thank you so much for joining us 11 today at our IEPR Commissioner Workshop on the 2019 12 Revised Electricity and Natural Gas Demand Forecast. I 13 am Janea Scott, the vice chair of the Energy Commission 14 and overseeing the IEPR process this year. We want to 15 welcome everybody. 16 I do want to reiterate what Matt said this 17 morning. If you’d like to make a public comment, please 18 grab a blue card and you can hand it to him or to our 19 public advisor who’s waiving one there for you to see. 20 And we will be delighted to hear from you. 21 I’m looking forward to hearing the information on 22 our revised forecast here. As you all know, the forecast 23 work that -- and analysis that the Commission staff does 24 is foundational to all kinds of clean energy planning 25 that the state is overseeing. And it’s something that 6 California Reporting, LLC (510) 313-0610 1 both our sister agency, the Public Utilities Commission 2 and also the California Independent System Operator use 3 in their planning processes as well. So it’s fantastic 4 to really hear what’s going on here, where some of the 5 kinks may have been, what we’ve worked out, and really 6 get those numbers well done for all of us. 7 I’m also very much looking forward to the 8 transportation forecast, it’s something that we have been 9 working very hard to update and make sure that we’ve got 10 the latest and greatest information with electric 11 vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, and making sure that as we 12 make this transition to zero emission vehicles, we’re 13 capturing that appropriately both within the 14 transportation forecast but also as it begins to reflect 15 in the electricity forecast. 16 So looking forward to today. Let me see if any 17 of my fellow commissioners have remarks that they would 18 like to make this morning. 19 COMMISSIONER MCALLISTER: Great. Thanks, Vice 20 Chair Scott. 21 I’m Andrew McAllister, lead on efficiency and 22 overseeing the forecast works. So really excited to see 23 the series of presentations. Want to thank Nick, Cary, 24 and the whole crew for -- Siva, the whole team which I 25 know it’s -- it’s small but mighty. And also looking 7 California Reporting, LLC (510) 313-0610 1 forward to the transportation forecast update. 2 Also, the storage and the self-generation update. 3 I think, you know, the sort of long-term scenario 4 building for particular storage. But both of those 5 continues to be really important as we try to figure out 6 sort of what the distribution level forecast, what 7 changes and distribution level resources actually implies 8 for the overall forecast. 9 And then also the hourly, the evolution of our 10 forecast to produce hourly results is also really 11 critically important for long-term planning. And 12 certainly with our sister agencies, that’s a key resource 13 for transition planning and for the RA work, and just 14 really, really critical in terms of, you know, as we move 15 towards understanding load shapes and just the impact on 16 our overall resource mix on a time sensitive basis. The 17 work that we’re doing and the analytics we’re doing are 18 really evolving us in a direction that’s going to -- 19 that’s super necessary but also really interesting. So 20 building those capacities is something that’s critical 21 for the Commission going forward. 22 So I really appreciate all the team’s work both 23 up to now, today, and to come. So looking forward to 24 hearing what everyone has to say today and getting some 25 feedback. 8 California Reporting, LLC (510) 313-0610 1 VICE CHAIR SCOTT: All right. Back to you. 2 MR. COLDWELL: All right. Thank you, 3 Commissioners. 4 So first up today is Cary Garcia who’s going to 5 be providing just kind of a general overview of the 6 forecast. So I’ll invite Cary to come on up. 7 Let me see if I can do this. This is the part 8 where Heather is a lot better than me. So. 9 MR. GARCIA: All right. Good morning. So after 10 Thanksgiving.