AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK GROUP REPUBLIC OF BURUNDI Country Strategy Paper 2019-2023 (CSP 2019-2023) Gabriel NEGATU Director General RDGE Yero BALDEH Director RDTS Management Ferdinand BAKOUP Lead Economist ECCE Stefan MULLER Lead Country Programme RDVP Coordinator Daniel NDOYE Country Manager COBI Marcellin NDONG-NTAH Lead Economist ECCE Abdoulaye KONATE, Principal Country Economist ECCE Abdoulaye M. TANDINA Country Programme Officer COBI John NDIKUMWAMI Transport Engineer COBI Rakia BEN GHANEM Transport Specialist COBI Mamadou DIOMANDE Financial Management Specialist RDGE Souweye MAIGA Procurement Specialist RDGE Maimouna DIOP LY Health and Social Protection AHHD Drafting Team Specialist Gilberte DOGBEVI-FALY Financial and Operations Analyst RDTS Jean Claude NSABIMANA Social Development Specialist COBI Moussa KONE Principal Energy Specialist RDGE Abdelmajid JEMAI Energy Specialist (Consultant) COBI Hamadi LAM Agricultural Specialist (Consultant) AHAI Cyrille EKOUMOU Environmental Specialist PEGC2 Serge RABIER Gender Specialist AHGC0 Christelle S. HAZOUME Technical Assistance Officer PINS Toussaint HOUENINVO Principal Country Economist ECCE Tankien DAYO Principal Country Economist ECCE Peer Reviewers Hercule YAMUREMYE Principal Operations Officer COCF AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK GROUP REPUBLIC OF BURUNDI Country Strategy Paper 2019-2023 (CSP 2019-2023) COUNTRY ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT - ECCE EAST AFRICA REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND BUSINESS DELIVERY OFFICE – RDGE June 2019 Translated document TABLE OF CONTENTS CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS .................................................................................................................................. i ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ................................................................................................................... ii map OF BURUNDI ............................................................................................................................................ iii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................... iv 1 INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................................................ 1 2 NATIONAL CONTEXT AND OUTLOOK........................................................................................................ 1 2.1 POLITICAL AND SECURITY CONTEXT ................................................................................................................ 1 2.2 ECONOMIC CONTEXT ................................................................................................................................... 2 2.3 SECTOR CONTEXT ....................................................................................................................................... 6 2.4 SOCIAL CONTEXT AND CROSSCUTTING THEMES ................................................................................................ 7 3 STRATEGIC OPTIONS, PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE AND LESSONS ............................................................ 8 3.1 COUNTRY STRATEGY FRAMEWORK ................................................................................................................ 8 3.2 AID COORDINATION AND HARMONISATION .................................................................................................... 9 3.3 WEAKNESSES AND OPPORTUNITIES.............................................................................................................. 10 3.4 COUNTRY PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE REVIEW ............................................................................................... 11 3.5 LESSONS FROM THE CSP 2012-2018 COMPLETION REPORT AND THE CPPR 2018 ............................................. 12 4 BANK GROUP STRATEGY 2019-2023....................................................................................................... 12 4.1 RATIONALE .............................................................................................................................................. 12 4.2 CSP OBJECTIVES AND STRATEGIC PILLARS ..................................................................................................... 13 4.3 EXPECTED OUTCOMES AND TARGETS ........................................................................................................... 17 4.4 INDICATIVE OPERATIONAL PROGRAMME (IOP) AND KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT ............................................... 16 4.5 CSP FINANCING ....................................................................................................................................... 18 4.6 CSP MONITORING AND EVALUATION........................................................................................................... 18 4.7 COUNTRY DIALOGUE ................................................................................................................................. 18 4.8 RISKS AND MITIGATION MEASURES ............................................................................................................. 18 5 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................................... 20 6 ANNEXES.................................................................................................................................................... ANNEX 1: CSP OUTCOMES FRAMEWORK ..................................................................................................................... I ANNEX 2: INDICATIVE PROGRAMME - LOANS AND NON-LENDING OPERATIONS .............................................................. VIII ANNEX 3: ALIGNMENT OF PIPELINE AND HIGH-5 PROJECTS ........................................................................................... IX ANNEX 4: TECHNICAL AND FINANCIAL PARTNERS (TFP) INTERVENTION MATRIX ................................................................ X ANNEX 5: MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS .................................................................................................................. XI ANNEX 6: IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CPIP 2018 ........................................................................................................ XII ANNEX 7: KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS FOR THE CURRENT PORTFOLIO ...................................................................... XV ANNEX 8: ONGOING PORTFOLIO (29 MARCH 2019) ................................................................................................. XVI ANNEX 9: CPIA RATINGS 2013-2016 ................................................................................................................... XVII ANNEX 10: ANNEX ON THE MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK ..................................................................................... XVIII ANNEX 11: CODE RECOMMENDATIONS ON THE CSP 2012-2018 COMPLETION REPORT ................................................ XIX ANNEX 12: SUMMARY OF EXCHANGES OF VIEWS WITH STAKEHOLDERS .......................................................................... XX ANNEX 13: ALIGNMENT OF DSP PILLARS TO PND 2018-2026 AND THE HIGH 5S ........................................................ XXIII ANNEX 14: FIDUCIARY RISK ASSESSMENT ............................................................................................................... XXIV ANNEX 15: COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT .............................................................................................................. XXVIII ANNEX 16: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GREEN GROWTH IN BURUNDI ............................................................................... XXXI ANNEX 17 - NON-SOVEREIGN OPERATIONS IN BURUNDI .................................................................................... XXXIV ANNEX 18 - 2018 CRFA'S MAIN RESULTS ……………………………………………………………..…………………………………XXXV ANNEX 19 - RISK MITIGATION MEASURES ….......................………………………………………………………………..XXXVI Figures and boxes Figure 1 – Political Context 2017 ............................................................................................................................ 2 Figure 2 - Growth rate of real GDP (%) …………………………………………………………………………...3 Figure 3 - Fiscal balance (% of GDP) …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 4 Figure 4 - External current balance (% of GDP) …………………………………………………………………. 5 Figure 5 - Breakdown of Active Portfolio by Sector ............................................................................................. 11 Figure 6 - Breakdown of Active Portfolio by High 5s........................................................................................... 11 Box 1 - Country Resilience and Fragility Assessment (CRFA) .............................................................................. 8 Box 2 – Pillar 1 and CRFA .................................................................................................................................... 14 Box 3 – Pillar 2 and CRFA .................................................................................................................................... 13 Box 4 –Selectivity Criteria .................................................................................................................................... 17 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS FISCAL YEAR 1 July – 30 June MONETARY EQUIVALENTS OF THE UNIT OF ACCOUNT (April 2019) Currency = Burundian Franc (BIF) UA 1 = BIF 2,537.77 EUR 1 = BIF 2,053.79 USD 1 = 1,828.03 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES 1 metric tonne = 2,204