Socioeconomic Assessment of the Carson National Forest Submitted to the United States Forest Service Region 3 Office July 2007 University Of New Mexico Bureau Of Business And Economic Research Acknowledgements BBER would like to thank the Region 3 Office of the USDA Forest Service for permitting us to take on this important project. We hope that the information and analysis provided in this report will contribute to the development of a forest plan that continues to benefit all residents of New Mexico. Specifically, we would like to thank Dr. Richard Periman for his patience, support and willingness to answer an immeasurable number of questions from our staff. He also pointed us to key forest staff that generously shared their expertise. The author of this report is indebted to the collaboration and cooperation of many people, who made this study possible. This work was supported by many people with the National Forest Service. Particular thanks go to Jack Carpenter, the Carson NF Supervisor, for providing information and interpretation regarding forest operations and for putting us in contact with other forest experts. Jack also reviewed earlier drafts of this document and provided detailed comments that were extremely helpful. His attention to detail and accuracy are very much appreciated. Thanks are also due to Tom Dwyer for his insight on access and right-of-way issues and Lucy Aragon for information on the current invasive weeds conditions. BU Socioeconomic Assessment of the Carson National Forest i Credits Principal Author Billy James Ulibarrí, M.A with Jeffrey Mitchell, Ph.D. Principal Investigators Lee A. Reynis, Ph.D. and Jeffrey Mitchell, Ph.D. Chapter 2 (Demographic Patterns and Trends) Richard Zimmerman Chapter 7 (Economic Impacts) Nicholas Potter, MA. Database Development Vicky Morris-Dueer, M.A Jeremy Cook, M.A. Bob Grassberger, Ph.D. Kevin Kargacin Karma Shore Larry Compton Cartography & GIS Michael McDaniel Editing Molly Bleecker, M.A. Joshua Akers. Students Austin Duus Erica Freese Sophie Hammett Ricardo Leo Lucinda Sydow, M.A. Administration Michael Byrnes Betsy Eklund Betty Lujan ii Socioeconomic Assessment of the Carson National Forest Table of Contents Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................ i Credits................................................................................................................................ii Table of Contents .............................................................................................................iii Table of Tables .................................................................................................................. v Table of Figures............................................................................................................... vii Abbreviations .................................................................................................................viii Executive Summary......................................................................................................... ix 1 Introduction.................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Statement of Purpose .............................................................................................. 1 1.2 Sources of Information and Analytical Methods .................................................... 2 1.3 Assessment Area ..................................................................................................... 2 1.4 Carson National Forest Ranger Districts ................................................................ 6 1.5 Organization of the Report.................................................................................... 13 2 Demographic and Socioeconomic Trends.................................................................. 15 2.1 Population Growth................................................................................................ 15 2.2 Racial/Ethnic Composition................................................................................... 17 2.3 Age of Population ................................................................................................. 18 2.4 Income and Poverty .............................................................................................. 20 2.5 Household Composition........................................................................................ 21 2.6 Educational Attainment......................................................................................... 22 2.7 Housing................................................................................................................. 24 2.8 Net Migration........................................................................................................ 26 2.9 Challenges and Opportunities for Forest Management ........................................ 28 3 Access and Travel Patterns......................................................................................... 31 3.1 Location of Major Transportation Routes............................................................. 31 3.2 Airports ................................................................................................................. 35 3.3 Traffic Flows......................................................................................................... 36 3.4 Forest Roads and Trails......................................................................................... 37 3.5 Right-of-Way and Other Access Issues................................................................. 41 3.6 Challenges and Opportunities for Forest Management ........................................ 42 4 Land Cover and Ownership........................................................................................ 45 4.1 Land Cover on the Carson National Forest........................................................... 45 4.2 Land Ownership.................................................................................................... 47 4.3 Land Conveyance and Exchanges ........................................................................ 48 4.4 Invasive Species.................................................................................................... 49 4.5 Fire and Fuels........................................................................................................ 51 4.6 Challenges and Opportunities for Forest Management ........................................ 53 5 Forest Uses and Users.................................................................................................. 55 Socioeconomic Assessment of the Carson National Forest iii Table of Contents 5.1 Recreation ............................................................................................................. 55 5.2 Grazing.................................................................................................................. 58 5.3 Timber................................................................................................................... 60 5.4 Oil and Gas ........................................................................................................... 61 5.5 Special Use Permits .............................................................................................. 62 5.6 Illegal Uses............................................................................................................ 64 5.7 Forest Users .......................................................................................................... 64 5.8 Challenges and Opportunities for Forest Management ........................................ 66 6 Special Areas ................................................................................................................ 69 6.1 Recreational Sites.................................................................................................. 69 6.2 Inventoried Roadless Areas and Wilderness Areas............................................... 71 6.3 Forest-Specific Issues: The Valle Vidal Unit ........................................................ 73 6.4 Tribal and Ceremonial Areas ................................................................................ 75 6.5 Challenges and Opportunities for Forest Management ........................................ 76 7 Economic Impacts........................................................................................................ 79 7.1 The Carson National Forest Regional Economy .................................................. 79 7.2 Methodology and Organization of Impact Analysis ............................................. 83 7.3 Direct Impact of Carson National Forest on the Regional Economy ................... 84 7.4 Economic Impacts and Multipliers ....................................................................... 86 7.5 Challenges and Opportunities for Forest Management ........................................ 89 8 Community Relationships........................................................................................... 93 8.1 Grants and Agreements......................................................................................... 94 8.2 Collaborative Forest Rehabilitation Program ....................................................... 94 8.3 Volunteers.............................................................................................................