Vfo c\cioS'^2. c\ -'N’O — \9.(a& Ima ■%VAin ItJf *Ux> Exploration Process by Learning from the Past Rica Maritim Hotel, Haugesund 29th-30th September 1998 NORSK PETROLEUMS FORENING/NPF NORWEGIAN PETROLEUM SOCIETY DISCLAIMER Portions of this document may be illegible in electronic image products. Images are produced from the best available original document. ; CONTENTS DISTRIBUTION OF THIS DOCUMENT IS UNLIMITED TITLE FOREIGN SALES PROHIBITED Page • FUTURE EXPLORATION CHALLENGES ON THE CONTINENTAL SHELF........................................................................................... 1 • MANAGING RISK WORLDWIDE - GLOBAL PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT AT SHELL EP.............................................................................. 3 • A LOOK TO THE PAST TO AVOID OLD TRAPS IN THE FUTURE........ 7 • BP PREDICTION ACCURACY IN PROSPECT ASSESSMENT: A 15 YEAR RETROSPECTIVE............................................................................... 9 • MANAGING RISKS, NORWEGIAN CONTINENTAL SHELF.................... 13 • EVALUATION OF WELL RESULTS - A FIND PROJECT............................17 • VOLUMES BEFORE AND AFTER EXPLORATION DRILLING................ 21 • PROBABILITY OF DISCOVERY AND THE REASONS FOR DRY WELLS...................................................................................................................25 • THE LESSONS FROM THE FIND PROJECT - SUGGESTIONS FOR AN IMPROVED EXPLORATION PROCESS...........................................27 • MIDDLE TO UPPER JURASSIC SYN-RIFT DEVELOPMENT ON THE HORDA PLATFORM, LOMRE AND UER TERRACES, NORTHERN NORTH SEA; IMPLICATIONS FOR PROSPECTIVITY... 31 • EXPLORATION POTENTIAL EAST OF TROLL, AFTER DRY WELL 32/4-1........................................................................................33 • EXPLORING THE BARENTS SEA SHELF - HOW NORSK HYDRO APPLIES EXPERIENCES........................................................................37 • THE EXPLORATION EXPERIENCE FROM THE MIDGARD TO THE KRISTIN FIELDS.............................................................................................. 41 • THE NORWEGIAN SEA AND THE 15™ CONCESSION ROUND, CHALLENGES IN A NEW EXPLORATION AREA.........................................43 • MAKING EXPLORATION PAY - TECHNOLOGY, HISTORY, DISCIPLINE.................................................................................................................. 45 • FROM BASIN MODELLING TO BASIN MANAGEMENT; REUSE OF BASIN SCALE SIMULATIONS....................................................... 47 • QUICK MAPPING OF BASIN MODELING RESULTS - A KEY FOR QUANTIFYING PROSPECT SENSITIVITIES......................... 51 • HYDRODYNAMIC ACTIVITY AND TILTED OIL-WATER CONTACTS IN THE NORTH SEA.........................................................................53 • RESERVOIR CHARACTERIZATION USING 4C SEISMIC AND CALIBRATED 3D AVO...................................................................................57 • FROM SEISMIC TO BIOMARKERS - THE VALUE OF ADDITIONAL DATA IN CONTINUALLY REFINING GEOLOGICAL MODELS........... 61 • EXPLORING MATURE AREAS; THE ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY.......... 63 • MANAGING SUBSURFACE KNOWLEDGE; THREE INITIATIVES IN BP....................................................................................................67 • AN EVALUATION OF PREDICTION, IN LIGHT OF RESULTS IN SOME OF THE 15™ ROUND LICENCES.................................71 • FUTURE CHALLENGES IN EXPLORING THE REMAINING HYDRO CARBON POTENTIAL OF THE NORWEGIAN CONTINENTAL SHELF........................................................................................... 73 NPF/inmroving the Exploration Process by learning from the past page 1 A The NPF Conference: Improving the Exploration by Learning from the Past Gunnar Berge, NPD Title: Future Exploration Challenges on the Norwegian Continental Shelf The hydrocarbon resources on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) are estimated to be 12,8 bill. Sm3 oil equivalents (o.e.), comprising 6,6 bill. Sm3 o.e. oil/NGL , and 6,2 bill. Sm’ o.e. of gas. These estimates include discovered and produced resources, those related to fields with potential for increased recovery, and undiscovered resources. Approximately 2,3 bill. Sm3 o.e. (18 %) are produced, significant resources still remain to be discovered; 3,3 bill Sm3 o.e. (26 %), with a range between 2 and 6 bill. Sm3 o.e. Approximately half of the undiscovered resources are located in licensed acreage, which means that future challenges also are related to exploration in these areas. The discovery rate on the NCS remains high, at 48 %, with 37 new discoveries during the last three years. The value of these resources will depend on future oil prices. Future exploration challenges are different within the different areas on the NCS. Certain areas, such as the North Sea, have a long and successful exploration history, and production is well established. In other areas, such as the More and Voring Basins, exploration activity is at a very early stage. The NPD calculates that the greater part of the undiscovered resources are located in the western and northern area of the North Sea. Compared with past discoveries, the size of the majority of future discoveries is likely to be moderate. In the North Sea many installations currently have free capacity, and this will increase in the future. One major challenge is to discover additional resources near existing infrastructure both in open and licensed acreage. The NPD calculates that approximately 65 % of the North Sea’s undiscovered resources are located in licensed acreage. In the eastern North Sea the potential is limited based on present data, and no major discoveries have been made. Current exploration activity in the area is low, and the evaluation of new play concepts presents a challenge in these areas. There is significant uncertainty related to undiscovered resource estimates in the Norwegian Sea is. The results of five wildcat wells in recently allocated areas are encouraging with regard to distribution and quality of reservoirs. The wells have proven gas in these basins, and the results are encouraging for the possibilities of finding liquid hydrocarbons. A careful evaluation of these drilling results is required both by the industry and the NPD, before new exploration strategies are developed in these basins. A further challenge is to discover additional resources in areas where existing discoveries, which are currently considered uneconomic, can be integrated together to comprise a profitable development concept. The Norwegian resource management challenge has been to achieve a balance of gas supply to the market, gas for injection to improve oil and condensate recovery and to maintain oil/condensate production. This has so far been successful, with an average recovery rate today estimated as 43 %. Injection of gas in the larger fields will continue, and an increasing number of fields currently in production planning will have gas injection as a part of their development strategy. Increased demands for gas for injection and for sale of gas may result in production of too much gas from fields where there is a dependency between liquids and gas. This may necessitate an undesirable reduction of production of liquid hydrocarbons from these fields. To avoid this, and to meet future requirements with respect to the sale of gas, exploration for more gas will present a further challenge to the industry. This means that the NCS will remain an attractive exploration area in the next century. 3 NPF Conference Expanded Abstract Haugesund, September 29-30,1998 MANAGING RISK WORLDWIDE - GLOBAL PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT AT SHELL EP by Mark S. Leonard, Shell EP International Ventures Inc. and Freddie Ozkaynak, Shell EP International Ventures B.V. In 1997, Shell spent over $6.8 billion US in capital expenditures and exploration expenses while producing 2.3 MM BO/d and 8 BCF/d of equity oil and gas. In addition, Shell EP International Ventures (SEPIV) evaluated more than 200 opportunities in over 80 countries (almost 40 in which we have current operations) in order to add to our profitable reserve base. Key success factors for Shell has been presence of local Operating Companies (“Opcos”) that are fairly autonomous, with the ability to pursue exploration opportunities within their own sphere of governance and approved budgets. So, how does a large multinational EP company do global portfolio management on all these opportunities while still recognizing the governance of the local Opcos? At Shell EP, in the world outside of Shell U.S. and Shell Canada, we do this by using a common methodology to characterize various risks and then scoring each of the opportunities with a standardized series of parameter screens. All opportunities are depicted graphically together so that each group can see how their opportunity compares with others. Investment decisions are made with this knowledge. This sounds easy in theory, but especially with operations around the globe, it is difficult to implement in practice. For Shell, it required that the basic work process (opportunity evaluation and maturation) be well defined and implemented, that parameter screens are clear and easy to use, and that the global EP strategy is well understood. Initial prototyping of this methodology was done in ourmost upstream organization, SEPIV, which is responsible for new business development outside of the areas in which Opcos already exist. The global strategy and the work process were developed, understood, and implemented by the entire SEPIV group. Four