Vol. 72, No. 1 January 1996 The 1995Elections: Running in Place .......................... By Larry J. Sabato .......................... The author is Robert Kent Gooch Professor stop: 1997, when the tug-of-war for control of of Government and Foreign Affairs at the the legislature between two closely matched par­ University ofVirginia. ties will be judged anew by the voters. PRIMARYELECTIONS Governor George Allen and his Republi­ Another primary season passed quietly, this time can party vowed that 1995 would see the end an eerie calm before the great storm anticipated of a 112-year-old Democratic dynasty in for November. Out of 280 potential primary Virginia's General Assembly. It didn't happen. challenges (140 seats in the legislature times 2), The GOPcame close with a tie in the state Senate, All the only 6 took place-4 on the Republican side but close counts only in horseshoes. Mter a col­ and 2 in the Democratic party, tying the Demo­ sound and fury lective expenditure ofover $20 million, shattering crats' all-time primarylow of1987. Six primaries the previous record of $10.8 million, despite signified has become Virginia's legislative norm; this was the most intense organizational efforts ever nearly nothing. the total number held in 5 ofthe last 6 election undertaken for a legislative campaign by both seasons (1985,1987,1989,1993, and 1995), a political parties, and in the face of extensive, substantial decline from a high of70 primaries unprecedented statewide and local television in 1965. advertising programs, almost nothing changed As in 1993, just two Assembly incumbents in the legislative lineup. Just two incumbent (both House Democrats) were challenged for House members, one from each party, lost in renomination, including the oldest member of the general election, and a net gain of two the House of Delegates and one of the most Republicans was recorded in the Senate. powerful, Robert B. Ball, Sr. ofHenrico County, All the ound and fury had signified nearly chairman ofthe Appropriations committee and nothing, except perhaps the public's overall level a veteran of24 years in the legislature. of comfort-for the time being-with the Under state law, political parties may nomi­ approximate status quo. Democrats took heart nate candidates in three ways: a mass meeting from the result, Republicans were disappointed, (an assemblage ofregistered voters in a district), and the permanent campaign continued. Next a canvass or "firehouse primary" (a district University of Virginia NEWS LETTER Almost election run by the party rather than by the state, CAMPAIGNFINANCE DATA three-quarters of where any registered voter may case a ballot In the six primary elections, the twelve candidates at party-designated polling sites), and a conven­ together spent $493,291. Interestingly, three ofthe amillion dollars tion (a conclave of party-selected delegates winners outspent their opponents, and three win­ was expended in representing all precincts and/or localities within ners spent less than their opponents-so money the district). clearly was not always the determining factor. Con­ the preliminary There were four contested mass meetings to tests for conventions and firehouse poIlings are usually round of the nominate three Republican candidates and one less expensive than formal, full blown primaries. In Democratic candidate for the House of Delegates. the eleven non-primary contested nominations, all 1995 legislative The three GOP mass meetings nominated George the candidates together spent $237,764-far less elections-an early Schaefer in Norfolk's district 86 to face Delegate than the total for just six primaries. Still, almost three­ George Heilig; Jay Sherrill in Norfolk's district 88 quarters of a million dollars was expended in the indication of the to challenge House Speaker Thomas Moss; andAllen preliminary round ofthe 1995 legislative elections, year's record­ Face to run a second consecutive campaign against a total that served as an early indication ofthe year's Newport News Delegate Alan Diamonstein in dis- record-breaking expenditures. breakiAg . • -trict 94. expenditures. Democrat Karetta Hubbard, a McLean busi­ ness owner in Fairfax County, defeated Carole Herrick RTYCO~PETITION by 367 to 165 votes to challenge Delegate Vincent It was clear from the start that Republicans had Callahan in District 34. out-organized the long-dominant Democrats (See The Republicans also sponsored four firehouse Table 1). The GOP nominated a record number of pnmanes. candidates: 85 in the House and 35 in the Senate, In the 42nd district, Delegate David B. Albo 120 overall for 140 seats in the legislature. For the ofSpringfield (Fairfax County) easily won renomi­ first time Democrats put fewer General Assembly nation over Timothy M. Casey by a vote of 1,292 candidates on the ballot than their opponents: just to 210. Neighboring Fairfax district 43 featured a 28 in the Senate and 80 in the House, or 108 over­ firehouse contest between two businessmen, Tom all. The Democratic House total was respectable (a BoIvin and Charles Hullfish; BoIvin won, with the few more than the party had nominated in four of endorsement ofRepublican U. S. Representative Tom the five previous elections), but the Senate total was Davis of Fairfax. In the Williamsburg-area House embarrassingly small-the lowest for Democrats in district 97, Joseph Mann triumphed by a wide margin this century. Rounding out the candidate field were over two opponents, Dr. Douglas Houston and 20 independents, 6 in the Senate and 14 in the House, Steven Smith. In the lone Senate firehouse primary, including one incumbent, longtime Delegate Lacey former U. S. Representative Stan Parris (1973-1975, E. Putney of Bedford. 1981-1991) ofNorthern Virginia's 8th congressional The Republicans' efforts had an entirely healthy district won the GOP Fairfax district 36 nomina­ and welcome effect: the most competitive set ofGen­ tion (1,234 votes) over ex-U.S. Senate aide Dan Rinzel eralAssembly elections in memory. Just 37% ofthe (914 votes) and real estate agent Ali Ghaemi (105 legislature's seats wer unopposed in 1995, well below votes). Parris was slated to oppose Democratic Senator the 560/0 average in the previous six election years Joseph Gartlan, in office since 1972. and under even 1993's unusually low level of440/0. Rounding out the non-primary fireworks were All told, there were 34 races in the House (14 three contested conventions. Former Delegate D, 19 R, 1 I) unopposed by the other party, and 17 Emmett Hanger (R) defeated John Root in Senate in the Senate (5D,12R). district 24 (the Staunton-Waynesboro area). Demo­ cratic attorney John Tate bested former Delegate G. C. Jennings in House district 5, Southwest Vir­ ~MENANDMINORITIES ginia; Jennings was seeking a rematch with GOP A few more women were nominated by the GOP Delegate Barnes Kidd, who ousted him in 1993. in 1995 compared to 1991 (See Table 2). But once And Republican lawyer Crisler Lindsay ofCulpeper again Democraticwomen candidates (25 total) greatly triumphed over business consultant John Callahan outnumbered the 10 Republican women candidates. in House district 30. Ofthe 25 Democratic women, 12 were incumbents In summary, six General Assembly candidates and 13 were non-incumbents, while, for Republi- were nominated in contested party primaries in 1995; . can women, 4 were incumbent and 6 were eleven candidates won party nominations in non- non-incumbents. · primary battles; and all the rest-the vast Three additional African-Americans were 2 majority-were unopposed for their party nods. nominated by the Democrats, joining eight Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service • January 1996 TABLE 1 A few more women Candidates for Virginia General Assembly, by Party, 1967-1995 were nominated by Republicans Independents Democrats the GOP in 1995 TotaI(%) House Total(%) Senate House Total(%) Year Senate House Senate compared to 1991. 1967 38 98 136 (58.4) 21 57 78 (33.5) 6 13 19 (8.1) 1969 96 96 (60.0) 55 55 (34.4) 9 9 (5.6) But Democratic 1971 39 96 135 (51.5) 26 72 98 (37.4) 7 22 29 (11.1) 1973 86 86 (46.7) 60 60 (32.6) 38 38 (20.7) women candidates 1975 40 95 135 (60.3) 20 48 68 (30.4) 9 12 21 (9.3) • greatly outnumbered 1977 92 92 (57.5) 53 53 (33.1) 15 15 (9.4) 1979 39 91 130 (57.0) 26 63 89 (39.0) 3 6 9 (3.9) the Republican 1981 90 90 (54.2) 58 58 (34.9) 18 18 (10.8 women candidates. 1982 85 85 (53.5) 66 66 (41.5) 8 8 (5.0) 1983 38 81 119 (56.4) 23 55 78 (37.0) 3 11 14 (6.6) 1985 79 79 (55.2) 59 59 (41.3) 5 5 (3.5) 1987 36 77 113 (55.4) 23 53 76 (37.2) 6 9 15 (7.4) 1989 78 78 (52.3) 61 61 (40.9) 10 10 (6.8) 1991 38 83 121 (51.7) 30 64 94 (40.2) 8 11 19 (8.1) 1993 78 78 (42.2) 77 77 (41.6) 30 30 (16.2) 1995 28 80 108 (43.5) 35 85 120 (48.4) 6 14 20 (8.1) SOURCE: Compiled from official election results provided by the State Board of Elections. NOTE: Senate elections are held every four years. incumbent black House Democrats and five sitting Anthony Moore to seek the seat ofDemocrat Frank • black Senate Democrats: Donald McEachin for the Hall in Richmond, and JeffArtis to challenge Vic • House in the Henrico area (discussed above); Bar­ Thomas of Roanoke. bara Coleman for the Lynchburg area Senate seat being vacated by incumbent Democrat Elliot S. OPEN SEATS Schewel; and Gilliam M. Cobbs of Lynchburg for Perhaps because of the looming, Armageddon-like the seat ofGOP Delegate Steve Newman, a Senate battle for party control of the General Assembly, aspirant.