PROTOCOL FOR MONITORING OF IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN BANGLADESH International Union for Conservation of Nature PROTOCOL FOR MONITORING OF IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN BANGLADESH Edited by Dr. Ainun Nishat Assisted by Nasim Aziz Nandan Mukherjee Eshrat Sharmen Akand Md. Ahsanul Wahed Ershadul Kader Faruki Marufa Sultana IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature) Bangladesh Country Office 2011 The designation of geographical entities in this book, and the presentation of the material, do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IUCN concerning the legal status of any country, territory, administration, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The views expressed in this publication are authors' personal views and do not necessarily reflects those of IUCN. This report is produced as a part of deliverables under the project titled “Enhancement of Bangladesh's Capacity to Participate in Road to Copenhagen Negotiations and Post-Copenhagen Regime” of Ministry of Environment and Forest, facilitated by IUCN Bangladesh Country Office and financed by the Department for International Development (DFID), United Kingdom and Danish International Development Agency (DANIDA), Denmark, and publication made possible under project titled “Support to Bangladesh on Climate Change Negotiations” funded by DFID. Published by: IUCN Bangladesh Country Office Copyright: © 2011 IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources Reproduction of this publication for educational or other non-commercial purposes is authorized without prior written permission from the copyright holder provided the source is fully acknowledged. Reproduction of this publication for resale or other commercial purposes is prohibited without prior permission of the copyright holder. Citation: IUCN Bangladesh. 2011. Protocol for Monitoring of Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Variability in Bangladesh. IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature), Dhaka, Bangladesh, Pp xiv + 182 Layout: Sheikh Asaduzzaman ISBN: 978 - 984 - 33 - 3938 - 6 Cover Photo: Effect of cyclone SIDR on Sundarban: Sand carpeting on phneumatophores and physical damage to trees Cover Photo by: IUCN / Abdul Quayyum Designed by: INTENT www.intentdesign.net Available from: IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature) Bangladesh Country Office House 11, Road 138, Gulshan – 1 Dhaka – 1212, Bangladesh Tel: 880-2-9890423, 9890395 Fax: 880-2-9892854 www.iucn.org/bangladesh Contents LIST OF FIGURES vi LIST OF TABLES vii FOREWORD viii PREFACE ix ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS xi ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS xii GLOSSARY xiv CHAPTER - 1 01 CLIMATE CHANGE IN GLOBAL AND LOCAL PERSPECTIVE 01 1.1 Changes in global scale 01 1.2 Observed changes in local scale 02 1.3 Projections of regional climate for south asia and Bangladesh 04 1.4 Possible impacts of climate change in Bangladesh 07 1.5 Need for monitoring mechanism 09 1.6 References 10 CHAPTER - 2 13 AN OVERVIEW OF SETTING UP MONITORING MECHANISM 13 2.1 Conceptual framework 13 2.2 Selection of eight thematic sectors 14 2.3 Approach for setting up monitoring protocol 15 2.4 Conclusion 16 2.5 References 16 CHAPTER - 3 17 INDICATORS TO ASSESS IMPACTS ON HYDRO-METEOROLOGY 17 3.1 Background 17 3.2 Hydro-meteorological trends 18 3.2.1 Change in temperature 18 3.2.2 Change in rainfall 19 3.2.3 Sea level rise 20 3.2.4 Existing hydro-meteorological network in Bangladesh 21 3.2.5 Urgency for establishing the monitoring protocol 22 3.3 Selection of parameters and indicators 22 Step-1- Selection of hydro-meterological event 23 Step-2: Selection of monitoring parameters 24 Step-3: Selection of Indicators 24 Step-4: Evaluation of the Indicators 31 Step-5: Selection and prioretization of most important indicators 33 3.4 Monitoring mechanism 40 3.4.1 Data collection mechanism 40 3.4.2 Institutional responsibilities 46 3.5 References 47 CHAPTER - 4 49 INDICATORS TO ASSESS IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE SECTOR 49 4.1 Background 49 4.2 Concerns on impact on agricultural sector 49 4.3 Monitoring parameters and indicators 51 4.4 References 58 CHAPTER - 5 59 INDICATORS TO ASSESS THE IMPACTS ON LIVESTOCK SECTOR 59 5.1 Background 59 5.2 Potential impact of climate change on livestock: Literature review and Bangladesh context 60 5.2.1 Impact of natural disaster on livestock population 60 5.2.2 Heat stress and livestock productivity (cow as an example) 61 5.2.3 Quantification of heat stress 62 5.2.4 Emergence of Diseases 62 5.2.5 Impacts on forage resources and Conflict over lands 63 5.3 Selection of monitoring parameters, indicators and monitoring mechanism 64 5.4 References 65 CHAPTER - 6 67 INDICATORS TO ASSESS IMPACTS ON FRESH WATER FISHERIES 67 6.1 Fisheries: an important sub-sector in Bangladesh economy 67 6.2 Influence of climatic factors on fish production: Bangladesh perspectives 68 6.3 Impacts of climate change and variability on inland open water fisheries 69 6.4 The need for a fisheries monitoring protocol 70 6.5 Approach and methodology 71 6.6 List of tentative indicators 72 6.7 References 80 CHAPTER - 7 81 INDICATORS TO ASSESS IMPACTS ON MARINE AND ESTUARINE FISHERIES 81 7.1 Background 81 7.1.1 Key concerns on impact of climate change 82 7.1.2 Temperature 83 7.1.3 Rainfall 85 7.1.4 Salinity 86 7.2 Development of monitoring tools 86 7.2.1 Monitoring framework 86 7.2.2 Indicator identification criteria 87 7.2.3 Monitoring template 88 7.3 References 95 CHAPTER - 8 97 INDICATORS TO ASSESS IMPACTS ON FOREST FLORA & FAUNA 97 8.1 Forest and forestry in Bangladesh 97 8.2 Impact of climate change on flora and fauna 98 8.3 Parameters for impact monitoring 102 8.3.1 Monitoring parameters for flora 103 8.3.2 Monitoring parameters for fauna (wildlife) 104 8.4 Monitoring mechanism 105 8.4.1 Indicator species 105 8.4.2 Selection of sample sites 106 8.4.3 Monitoring method 114 8.5 References 118 CHAPTER - 9 121 INDICATORS TO ASSESS IMPACTS ON HUMAN HEALTH 121 9.1 Background 121 9.2 Health effects of climate change in Bangladesh 122 9.2.1 Conceptualisation 122 9.2.2 Climate sensitive diseases in Bangladesh 123 9.3 Conceptual framework of monitoring 128 9.3.1 Approach for monitoring of the health impact 129 9.3.2 Monitoring mechanism 129 9.4 Monitoring parameter for assessing impact of climate change on human health in Bangladesh 131 9.5 Data analyses 133 9.5.1 Resource required 133 9.5.2 Outputs 133 9.5.3 Possible challenges 133 9.6 References 133 CHAPTER - 10 141 INDICATORS TO ASSESS IMPACTS ON LIVELIHOOD & POVERTY 141 10.1 Background 141 10.2 Nexus between natural and social science 142 10.2.1 Concept of social vulnerability 142 10.2.2 Modalities that trigger loss of livelihoods 145 10.3 Climate change, Bangladesh and food security 146 10.3.1 Overall impact on agriculture sector 146 10.3.2 Predominance of rice cultivation 149 10.3.3 Experience from the past: The great bengal famine of 1943 155 10.3.4 Impact of hydro-meterological disasters 156 10.4 Monitoring Indicators and mechanism 162 10.4.1 Monitoring data 162 10.4.2 Indicators to be monitored 162 10.5 References 166 ANNEX-1 171 LIST OF PARTICIPANTS IN THE TWO NATIONAL WORKSHOPS IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING MONITORING PROTOCOL 171 LIST OF FIGURES CHAPTER - 1 Figure 1.1: The climatology of mean SST in the Bay of Bengal from 1981-2007 07 Figure 1.2: Possible climate change-related impacts in Tropical Asia 08 CHAPTER - 2 Figure 2.1: Conceptual framework for developing monitoring mechanism 13 Figure 2.2: Basic guideline for developing monitoring protocol 15 CHAPTER - 3 Figure 3.1: Observed trend in minimum & maximum temperature 19 Figure 3.2: Observed trend in seasonal mean rainfall for post-monsoon seasonal month 19 Figure 3.3: Observed trend in sea level rise as evident from different tidal stations along the coast 20 Figure 3.4: Relationship of climate change and variability with physical vulnerability context 23 Figure 3.5: Layout of key stations to be included under the monitoring protocol 42 Figure 3.6: Proposed stations for monitoring of sea level rise and existing portray of non-tidal water level stations in the coastal zone of Bangladesh 44 CHAPTER - 5 Figure 5.1: Mechanism by which animal dissipate heat at normal and stressed conditions 61 Figure 5.2: Physiological, behavioral changes and adverse effects on cows due to heat stress 62 Figure 5.3: Land use for cropping 63 CHAPTER - 7 Figure 7.1: Global warming and capture fisheries: impact pathways 83 Figure 7.2: Trend of temperature, rainfall and seasonal changes in 20 years (1988-2008) in Maijdee, Hatiya, Feni, Sandwip, Chittagong and Cox's Bazar 84 Figure 7.3: Trend of mean maximum and minimum temperature in Maijdee, Hatiya, Feni, Sandwip, Chittagong and Cox's Bazar 85 Figure 7.4: Operational structure for monitoring climate change effects on marine fisheries 87 CHAPTER - 10 Figure 10.1: Pathways of livelihood, gender and food security impacts 147 Figure 10.2: Year to year fluctuations in the rates of growth in agriculture and sub-sectoral GDP 149 Figure 10.3: Rice output by season 150 Figure 10.4: Monthly wages of agricultural, male, unskilled labour and the price of rice and indices of exchange rates: birbhum district, 1943 156 Figure 10.5: Relationship between disasters, and sectoral and national GDP 161 vi LIST OF TABLES CHAPTER - 1 Table 1.1: Return period of flood according to affected area 03 Table 1.2: Frequency of different types of hazards 03 Table 1.3: Scenario explanations 05 Table 1.4: Projected global average surface warming and sea level rise