Infrastructure and Environmental Capacity Appraisal Final Report St Edmundsbury Borough Council Forest Heath District Council May 2009 Infrastructure and Environmental Capacity Appraisal Contents 1.0 Executive Summary 1 Introduction 1 Guide to the Study 1 Background 2 Approach and Key Findings 3 Summary Schedule for ‘Optimal Range’ of Growth 10 2.0 Introduction 17 Background 17 Objectives 17 Priorities and Trade-offs in Infrastructure Provision 21 Outputs 23 3.0 Methodology 25 4.0 Background 29 Policy Context 29 Background Review of Evidence 32 Context for Growth 37 5.0 Baseline Infrastructure Position 42 Introduction and Approach 42 Infrastructure Pressures by Settlement 48 Overall Study Area Wide Impacts and Infrastructure Pressures 58 Overall Messages 60 6.0 Defining Opportunity Areas 61 Introduction and Approach 61 Identification of Constraints 63 Settlement Hierarchy and Characteristics (Constraints and Opportunities) 67 Constraints and Opportunities by Opportunity Area 87 Identification of Potential Future Development Patterns by Settlement 92 Summary of Capacity Ranges 115 Appraisal of Indicative Development Patterns 118 Conclusions 124 7.0 Infrastructure to Support Growth 125 Introduction 125 Physical, Social and Community Infrastructure Requirements 126 Phasing Infrastructure and Marginal Costs 145 Final Report, St Edmundsbury and Forest Heath Infrastructure and Environmental Capacity Appraisal 8.0 Costs, Funding and Delivery 154 Costs of Infrastructure 154 Infrastructure Prioritisation and Phasing 156 Funding and Delivery Mechanisms 156 Capital and Revenue Costs of Providing Identified Infrastructure 168 Developer Contributions 168 Coordination of Development and Infrastructure Provision 177 9.0 Conclusions and Recommendations 179 Next Steps for FHDC and SEBC 192 Appendix 1 Policy Summary Appendix 2 Spatial Plan Document Appendix 3 Settlement Pro-formas Appendix 4 Overall Requirments and Costs Appendix 5 Settlement Infrastructure Tipping Points Analysis Appendix 6 Infrastructure Phasing and Marginal Cost Impact Analysis Appendix 7 Statement of Stakeholder Engagement Appendix 8 Settlement Overviews Final Report - St Edmundsbury and Forest Heath Infrastructure and Environmental Capacity Appraisal Figures Fig 1 Role of the Study in Shaping LDF Approach to Housing 19 Fig 2 Methodology - Source: NLP 25 Fig 3 Growth Scenarios for Forest Heath - Source: SCC / NLP analysis 39 Fig 4 Growth Scenarios for St Edmundsbury - Source: SCC / NLP Analysis 40 Fig 5 Dwelling Completions per Annum Source: NHBC/CLG 41 Fig 6 Opportunities and Constraints around Brandon 96 Fig 7 Opportunities and Constraints around Lakenheath 97 Fig 8 Opportunities and Constraints around Newmarket 98 Fig 9 Opportunities and Constraints around Exning (map ref 8) 99 Fig 10 Opportunities and Constraints around Kentford 100 Fig 11 Opportunities and Constraints around West Row and Mildenhall 101 Fig 12 Opportunities and Constraints around Mildenhall showing SPA to east of the settlement 102 Fig 13 Opportunities and Constraints around Red Lodge 103 Fig 14 Opportunities and Constraints around Beck Row 104 Fig 15 Opportunities and Constraints around Bury St Edmunds. 106 Fig 16 Opportunities and Constraints around Haverhill 108 Fig 17 Opportunities and Constraints around Kedington, including flood zone and changes in level to the north east and south west 109 Fig 18 Opportunities and Constraints around Barrow 110 Fig 19 Opportunities and Constraints around Risby highlighting buffer to SPA and Calor Gas storage works HSE consultation zone. 111 Fig 20 Opportunities and Constraints around Ixworth including Conservation Area and Listed Buildings and flood zone to the south 112 Fig 21 Opportunities and Constraints around Stanton identifying protected green corridor and buffers to SSSI designations 113 Fig 22 Opportunities and Constraints around Clare including inclusion of common land within the conservation area, green corridor along the disused railway and flood zone 114 Fig 23 Opportunities and Constraints around Wickhambrook highlighting relationship of the settlement to surrounding villages 115 Fig 24 Cost per Dwelling of Infrastructure Provision in Forest Heath 148 Fig 25 Cost per Dwelling of Infrastructure Provision in St Edmundsbury 151 Fig 26 Development Economics Framework 172 Fig 27 Infrastructure Costs against potential Developer Contributions 2021 (left) and to 2031 (right) 173 Fig 28 Funding Gaps to 2021 and 2031 174 Fig 29 Development Viability and Policy Trade-offs 175 Fig 30 Illustration of Rolling Fund Principles 176 Fig 31 Funding Gaps to 2021 and 2031 191 Final Report, St Edmundsbury and Forest Heath Infrastructure and Environmental Capacity Appraisal Tables Table 1 Executive Summary: Growth Scenarios for Forest Heath - Source: SCC / NLP analysis 4 Table 2 Executive Summary: Growth Scenarios for St Edmundsbury - Source: SCC / NLP Analysis 4 Table 3 Executive Summary: Infrastructure Costs 8 Table 4 Executive Summary: Summary Schedule 14 Table 5 Settlement Hierarchy 20 Table 6 Classification of Infrastructure Types 22 Table 7 Growth Scenarios for Forest Heath - Source: SCC / NLP analysis 38 Table 8 Growth Scenarios for St Edmundsbury - Source: SCC / NLP Analysis 39 Table 9 Summary table of infrastructure types and our approach 47 Table 10 Summary table of constraints identified within the two districts 66 Table 11 Forest Heath Settlement Characteristics 77 Table 12 St Edmundsbury Settlement Characteristics 86 Table 13 Summary of physical and infrastructure constraints for Forest Heath 89 Table 14 Summary of infrastructure and physical constraints for Opportunity Areas within St Edmundsbury 91 Table 15 Summary of Preliminary Dwelling Yield for Forest Heath 116 Table 16 Summary of Preliminary Dwelling Yield for St Edmundsbury 117 Table 17 Infrastructure to Support Growth by Settlement 132 Table 18 Infrastructure Requirements to 2021 and 2031 142 Table 19 Overall Costs of Infrastructure to Support Growth to 2021 across the Study Area 143 Table 20 Overall Costs of Infrastructure to Support Growth to 2031 144 Table 21 Marginal Costs of Required Infrastructure Provision per Dwelling – Source: NLP 147 Table 22 Marginal Costs of Required Infrastructure Provision per Dwelling – Source: NLP 150 Table 23 Infrastructure Costs across the Study Area 155 Table 24 Forest Heath Affordable Housing Requirements 167 Table 25 St Edmundsbury Affordable Housing Requirements 167 Table 26 Forest Heath Developer Contribution Rates - Numbers do not add due to rounding. 172 Table 27 St Edmundsbury Developer Contribution Rates - Numbers do not add due to rounding. 173 Table 28 Simple Development Viability Scenario 175 Table 29 Summary Schedule 188 Final Report - St Edmundsbury and Forest Heath Infrastructure and Environmental Capacity Appraisal 1.0 Executive Summary Introduction 1.1 This Study, prepared by Nathaniel Lichfield and Partners (NLP), considers the environmental capacity of settlements and the need for and means of providing and maintaining social, physical and environmental infrastructure to support growth in the Forest Heath District Council (FHDC) and St Edmundsbury Borough Council (SEBC) areas, for the periods to 2021 and 2031. Guide to the Study 1.2 The Study comprises the following key components (with the relevant section of the main report identified in brackets): a A background review of evidence, including the development of three different growth scenarios (Low, Medium, and High) for future levels of population increase based on the Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS) and National Housing and Planning Advisory Unit (NHPAU) supply range which set the context against which to consider infrastructure requirements and environmental capacity (Section 4); b A baseline assessment of the current infrastructure provision in the Study area, identifying tipping points or thresholds where existing infrastructure will reach a theoretical capacity for each settlement (Section 5); c An assessment of the physical and environmental constraints to growth in settlements within the Study Area, based on the emerging core strategies respective settlement hierarchies; the formulation of opportunity growth areas, where future development might be possible, based on the settlement hierarchy, the baseline assessments and feedback from stakeholders on identified environmental constraints, giving a capacity range for each settlement against which to test future infrastructure requirements (Section 6); d The application of a set of benchmarked standards of infrastructure provision and consideration of stakeholder responses to identify infrastructure requirements to support the identified capacity ranges for each settlement, including an analysis of the marginal cost impacts associated with infrastructure provision for additional growth in different types of settlement (Section 7); e Use of the growth scenarios (see a above) to provide a strategic indication of infrastructure requirements and associated costs for different levels of growth for each district based on the RSS. These are to be considered alongside, but distinct from, the identified long term environmental capacity ranges for each settlement which have the potential to be well above the P1/192 Final Report - St Edmundsbury and Forest Heath Infrastructure and Environmental Capacity Appraisal level of development capable of coming forward within the plan period (Section 7); f A review of the costs of infrastructure provision to support growth and an assessment of the funding and delivery mechanisms (Section 8); g An assessment