2020 Conference Report MINISTRY OF EXTERNAL AFFAIRS Government of India 02 About Raisina Dialogue 2020 10 Outcome Statement 06 Inauguration @ Raisina 14 Raisina 2020 Agenda Conversations @ Raisina Embracing a Gig World: Paychecks, iRadical: Countering Online 26 Protections, Purpose and Skills 72 Hate and Violence Right to Breathe: Ministerial Addresses 28 The Battle for Clean Air 74 Contents Unstable Regimes: Fake News, New Media Poachers as Gamekeepers: Can Terror 32 and Our Political Futures 78 Incubators Counter Terror? A Rock and a Hard Place: New Rules For Between Atlantic and Pacific: 34 India and The EU In a Multipolar World 80 The Future of Europe Hacking Democracy: Defending Pluralism in In Conversation: 36 the Digital Age 82 With H.E. Hamid Karzai In Conversation: Junction India: Towards an East 39 With H.E. Sergey Lavrov 84 Indian Ocean Community for Growth The India Way: Preparing for a Century of The Art of the Plan: Deciphering 41 Growth and Contest 86 Key Trends @ 20 Competing Nationalisms, Universal Norms: Digital Binaries: 5G and the New Tech Wars 44 Street Power In 21st-Century Diplomacy 88 In Conversation: Just like US: Exclusive Trade in the 46 With H.E. Mohammad Javad Zarif 90 Trump Age New Arc of Cooperation in Rising Rimland: Digital Crossroads: New Norms 48 From Vladivostok to Chennai 92 for a New Society Cracks on the Roof of the World: Growth, Plural Waters: Strengthening Democracy in 50 Stability and Assault Rifles in the Heart of Asia 94 the Indo-Pacific Regime Meltdown: New Powers Coalitions and Consensus: 52 and the Arms Control Failure 96 In Defence of Values that Matter Content Sub-Continent: Catalysing Coded to Kill: Proxy Wars and 54 Our Digital Futures 98 Autonomous Systems Greenbacks For Green-Tech: Paying for E-mobility and the City: 56 Innovation so that Innovation Pays 100 Innovation on the Move #SheLeads in the Alpha Century: The New Connecting Waters: Sustainable Infrastructure 58 Narratives of Transformations and Change 103 in the Indo-Pacific Geopolitics and God: Identity and Valedictory Address 60 Religion in the Digital Age 105 by H.E. Josep Borrell Fluid Fleets: Navigating Tides of Revision in Raisina Edit 62 the Indo-Pacific 109 A New Eastern Trade Route: Author’s Corner 65 Integrating the Bay of Bengal 110 Scorched Earth: Communities, Raisina Hosts, Rapporteurs and Team Raisina 68 Conflicts and Migrants 112 The Bias Bug: Responding to Raisina 2020 Sponsors 70 Automated Patriarchy 114 Design Director: Anil Ahuja Layout Deigner: Syed Salahuddin The fifth edition of the Raisina Dialogue, India’s flagship conference on geo-economics and geopolitics hosted by the Ministry of External Affairs and the Observer Research Foundation, was held from 14-16th January 2020. The theme of the conference was “21@20: Navigating the Alpha Century,” highlighting the emergence of an ‘Alpha’ moment where popular leaders across communities, business and states are defining the new century. It also explored India’s role in the emerging world order and key challenges of the current age. The Raisina Dialogue 2020 brought together over 600 speakers and delegates from 103 countries, representing heads of state, cabinet ministers, diplomats, CEOs, and leaders from academia, civil society and media. Over 1,500 participants joined from India and abroad, who discussed and debated ideas that will serve the emergence of this new world order. CONFERENCE REPORT 3 INAUGURATION @ RAISINA AGENDA CONVERSATIONS @ RAISINA However, the “collective” remains elusive, and multilateral President Han expressed a shared optimism. Illustrat- institutions such as the United Nations Security Council ing the success of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisa- (UNSC) have failed to deliver results. Tobgay emphasised tion (NATO), Rasmussen remarked that the alliance is on the need for reform in such institutions, arguing that “stronger [now] since any point after the end of the Cold unless new voices and actors are given space, their legitima- War,” and has been the “most successful peace movement cy and efficacy is likely to continue suffering. in history,” particularly in the West. However, he also stressed the importance of soft power in international Multilateralism governance and called for “a global alliance of democra- INAUGURATION @ RAISINA While PM Tobgay highlighted the failures of the mul- cies to raise their voice against advancing autocracies.” tilateral governance system, both PM Rasmussen and President Han spoke in support of both multilateralism PANELLISTS Hamid Karzai, Former President, Afghanistan Helen Clark, Former Prime Minister, New Zealand Stephen Harper, Former Prime Minister, Canada Carl Bildt, Former President, Sweden Andreas Fogh Rasmussen, Former Prime Minister, Denmark Han Seung-Soo, Former President, Republic of Korea Tshering Tobgay, Former Prime Minister, Bhutan PANEL MODERATOR Samir Saran, President, ORF HE inaugural session of the Raisina Dialogue eties are often wrong, “they usually correct themselves.” The 2020 brought together seven former heads of PM remains optimistic that the idea of liberal democracy state to offer their perspectives on the inter- remains central to most of the countries across the world. Tlocking and interrelated drivers of change in the world order. The discussion covered five broad themes. Sustainable Development and Climate Change Addressing climate change and the broader sustainable The Future of the Transatlantic Relationship development challenge is critical to creating a prosper- Acknowledging the rifts in this unique and valuable rela- ous future for all. The 2020s will be an important decade tionship, Prime Minister Harper remarked that the end of for action on the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) the Cold War marked the breakdown of a “common sense Agenda and the Paris Agreement. However, as PM Clarke of mission” amongst Western Allies. However, he argued, highlighted, the international community has failed to the partnership remains resilient, since both sides of the meet not only key SDG targets but also critical financial Atlantic “fundamentally share [the same] values, econom- and emissions commitments. Clarke listed leadership and ic structures and macro-security interests.” According to political will as key force multipliers in responding to this Harper, the real challenge is internal and not external. The challenge, especially with regard to the role of the devel- emergence of “political protests” across Western countries oped world in leading the SDG agenda. PM Tobgay echoed have largely been precipitated by the rise of nationalist the sentiment of “collective action,” arguing that climate leaders and compounded by the “uneven distribution of the change is a “tragedy of commons on a truly global scale,” impacts of globalisation.” However, although Western soci- and thus, “the world needs champions from all countries.” 6 RAISINA DIALOGUE 2020 CONFERENCE REPORT 7 and globalisation, noting its success in South Korea and its neighbouring countries in bringing “economic prosperity, which guaranteed peace and security, more than any alliance.” East Asia, he remarked, is at an in- flexion point, with the emergence of certain “worrying trends” that harken to the shift from multilateralism to unilateralism and from free trade to protectionism. WELCOME REMARKS Echoing the point made by the panellists before him, Han stressed the importance of regional and global SUNJOY JOSHI leadership in reversing current trends that have the po- Chairman, ORF tential “to make our lives difficult in the future.” ITH his opening remarks, Mr. Sunjoy Joshi, Peace and Security in Asia Chairman, Observer Research Foundation, President Karzai discussed peace and security across Whighlighted some key themes that will Asia, stating that East and West Asia are intrinsically be debated and discussed at the fifth edition of the linked, with developments in the Middle East hav- Raisina Dialogue: ing a direct impact on countries such as Afghanistan. Similarly, both East and West Asia are threatened by New Geographies and Old Rivalries deteriorating security relations amongst geographies In recent years, new constructs such as the Indo- beyond this region. Great power competition and the Pacific and Eurasia have captured the imagination of undermining of international institutions have only political actors. While this has forged opportunities for exacerbated the challenge. cooperation, it has also created space to catalyse old rivalries. The 21st-century will be defined by how well Emerging Technologies these opportunities and challenges are managed. An overarching theme of the next century will likely be the intersection of technology with societies. As Pres- The Physical and Digital ident Bildt observed, this interaction will be dictated The convergence of the physical and digital is altering by those that have “mastered the technology.” Over the the assumptions that underpin human interaction—it past decade, assumptions about digital technologies is questioning the way we organise our societies, our have changed dramatically. Once seen as an instrument workplace and our families. Will digital technologies of democracy, emerging technologies are increasingly build a more open, free and sustainable world, or will it polarising open societies and undermining interna- highlight and exacerbate existing inequities? tional security. Bildt cautions that “digital conflict” is starkly different from traditional conflicts, and its out- Multilateralism 2.0 comes can completely alter systems. Therefore,