Knowing Our Communities Borough Demographics: January 2014 Equality Analysis This is a brief overview of borough demographic data using current data available from the 2011 census and other local sources. We will shortly be commissioning a full equality analysis, which will update the 2011 Equality Data Mapping Audit report. Overview has used analysis undertaken by Henry Kilpin ( Children Services ), Stuart Black ( Environment and FCS ), Suganya Ranganathan ( Corporate Equality ) and DataRich. 1 Population: The population of Richmond upon Thames was 186,990 in 20111, an increase of over 8% (14,679 residents) since 2001. By 2021, the Office of National Statistics (ONS) predicts the population will be 216,613, an increase of 16% on the current figure.2 Gender/Sex: Gender breakdown of The population of Richmond upon Thames consists of 95,849 females ( 51% ) and 91,149 males Borough residents ( 49% ).3 The disparity has narrowed since the 2001 Census, with an increase of 0.37% in the proportion of male residents. 49% 51% Male Female Sexual Orientation: The 2011 census did not have a specific question regarding sexual orientation. Census data relating to Civil Partnerships shows that 665 people (0.35% of the population in the borough) responded as being in a registered same sex civil partnership. Government estimates put the Gay, Lesbian and Bisexual ( LBG ) population at between 5% and 7% of the population in England and Wales (DTI, Final Regulatory Impact Assessment: Civil Partnership, 2004). The ONS Integrated Household Survey ( 2011 ) 1 2011 Census: QS102UK Population Density: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/search/index.html?newquery=qs102uk 2 Interim 2011-based sub-national population projections by single year of age: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-reference-tables.html?edition=tcm%3A77-274527 3 2011 Census: KS101UK Usual resident population, http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/search/index.html?newquery=ks101uk 2 reports that 1.5 per cent of the population describe themselves as being Gay, Lesbian or Bisexual, 2.5 per cent for London. Other studies suggest that areas such as London ( 10% ) and Brighton ( 25% ) have larger LBG populations. Equality Data Mapping report 2011 suggested a rough estimate for the borough for the LGB population as being between 5-7% as a conservative estimate. Some local organisations however feel that an estimate of 10 per cent provides a more realistic estimate of Richmond’s Lesbian, Gay and Bisexual population. Marriage and Civil partnerships: Marriage and Civil partnerships The chart to the left relates to the 150,052 residents aged over 16 years in the 2011 Census.4 in Richmond upon Thames In addition to the information displayed, 665 residents (0.44% of those eligible) responded as being in a registered same sex civil partnership. 37% Single Married Divorced Separated 5% 48% Widowed 8% 2% Gender reassignment Background and context In the UK, the term transgender is used as an umbrella term for all people who cross gender boundaries, whether this is permanent or not. There is no official estimate of the transgender population in Richmond. However it is estimated that there are between 4 2011 Census: KS103UK Marital status: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/search/index.html?newquery=ks103uk 3 300,000 and 500,000 transgender people living in the UK, a prevalence ratio of between 0.6% to1% of the population5. From this we could estimate there are between 1,122 and 1,870 transgender people living in Richmond. There is also a bitesize JSNA related to health needs and gender re-assignment, which will be available on the public website later in 2014. Further information will also be provided in the updated Equality Data Mapping report and analysis 2014. 5 Kingston Borough Profile 2012, Kingston Data Observatory 4 Age: The population of Richmond upon Thames is getting proportionally older. This can be seen by the number of residents aged 61-65 years having the largest proportional increase since 2001, with a 49% rise. The proportion of residents aged over 90 years has also seen significant growth, with a 27% increase since 2001.6 Further to this, a recent ONS survey recorded Richmond residents as having the highest “Healthy Life Expectancy” in Britain, at more than seven years above national averages,7 whilst the ONS also predicts that the proportion of residents over 60 years of age will increase to more than 18% of the Borough population by 2021 Age profile of Borough residents 17% 24% 0-20 years 21-30 years 11% 31-40 years 41-50 years 12% 51-60 years 61+ years 16% 18% 6 Census Borough Profile (April 2013): http://www.richmond.gov.uk/census_borough_profile_2013.pdf 7 Healthy Life Expectancy at Birth 2009-11: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_327530.pdf 5 Older People ( taken from DataRich ) Older People (aged 65+) Key facts: Older people are defined as those people living in the borough who are aged 65 or over. This group can be split further into types - ‘younger older people’ tend to be aged 65-75, are in fairly good health and are active and living independently. Those people aged 75+ can be grouped as ‘higher need older people’ although many of this age group may well be healthy and living independently, others within this age group have significant health problems which may challenge their ability to live comfortably without care and support. In total, 25,200 of Richmond’s 187,000 people are aged 65 and over (13.5% of the total population). The biggest proportionate increase by age group since 2001 has been those aged 65-69 which has increased by 26.6%. If these people remain in the borough as they get older, it is likely to put serious pressure on service provision. However, there has been a drop in the number of people aged 75-79 over the last ten years with over 500 fewer people in that age bracket. This could be because people are choosing to move in old age either because they cannot afford to stay, or wish to live elsewhere. If this trend continues the pressure from the baby boomer generation predicted to be calling on services in the next ten years, may not be as significant as previously predicted. Comparisons - Richmond has a higher percentage of total population aged either 65+, 75+, 85+ or 90+ than Outer London. When compared to England we have exactly the same proportion of over 85s (2.2% of total population) and over 90s (0.8%) but a smaller proportion of the total population is aged 65+. Further analysis will be produced in the updated Equality Data mapping report 2014 and full equality analysis. 6 Children and Young People (0-19 ) The 2011 Census estimated that Richmond has a population of 186,990, of which around 36,938 children are under 16 (19.8%) and 40,559 children aged under 18 (21.7%). Of the 0-19 population in borough, the Census showed that the 0-4 age group is the largest, followed by the 5-9 age group. The 15-19 age group is the smallest. 5 year age bands Total persons % of the total population 0-4 years 14,038 7.5% 5-9 years 11,107 5.9% 10-14 years 9,827 5.3% 15-19 years 9,085 4.9% 0-19 years 44,057 23.6% Table: 0-19 population in Richmond upon Thames Source: Office for National Statistics 2011Census The population of Richmond borough is growing; by 2016 the population is expected to rise from 187,000 to 191,200 reaching 194,000 by 20218. The population of residents under 19 is also projected to grow from 46,0009 in 2013 to 48,700 in 2016 and 51,000 in 2021. BME 0-19 children and young people The population of children and young people from BME backgrounds in the borough is 18.8%. For detailed analysis of this and for ward by ethnicity and age data, please see section on Race/Ethnicity. 8 GLA Population Projections 2012 Round, SHLAA, Borough SYA Population Projections 9 9 GLA 2011 Round SHLAA Population Projections, Standard Fertility (January 2012) 7 BME Analysis by Age % of BME residents aged 0-4 10% % of BME residents aged 5-7 5% % of BME residents aged 8-9 3% % of BME residents aged 10-14 7% % of BME residents aged 15 1% % of BME residents aged 16-17 3% % of BME residents aged 18-19 3% % of BME residents aged 20-24 7% % of BME residents aged 25-29 8% % of BME residents aged 30-34 10% % of BME residents aged 35-39 10% % of BME residents aged 40-44 9% % of BME residents aged 45-49 7% % of BME residents aged 50-54 5% % of BME residents aged 55-59 4% % of BME residents aged 60-64 3% % of BME residents aged 65-69 2% % of BME residents aged 70-74 2% % of BME residents aged 75-79 1% 8 % of BME residents aged 80-84 1% % of BME residents aged 85+ 1% Age by Gender ( to be added ) 9 Religion or Belief: In the 2011 Census, over 55% of residents classified themselves as Christian, higher than the London average of 48%. The second largest classification was no religion at 28%, again higher than the London average of 21%. Although the proportion of residents associated with other religions are broadly in line with London-wide values, the percentage of residents recorded as Muslim (3%) and Hindu (2%) are below London-wide figures (12% and 5% respectively) when looking at borough wide figures.10 However, it is also important to note that these are not insignificant figures either.