Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative Transportation Energy Analysis Final Report August 2015 Prepared for: Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism Hawaii State Energy Office Submitted by: Page 1 of 171 Acknowledgements This work is funded by the Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism (DBEDT) at the Hawaii State Energy Office. Josh Miller, Alan Lloyd, and Anup Bandivadekar led the work on this report. Stephanie Searle, Dan Rutherford, Haifeng Wang, and Irene Kwan from ICCT provided technical contributions, and Mark Glick, Chris Yunker, Margaret Larson, Lynda Viray, and Jonathan Chin from DBEDT provided critical reviews. The authors would also like to thank the participants in the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative Transportation Charrette for their engagement throughout the project. Disclaimer The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) is a consultant to the Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism (DBEDT) under contract number 63188: Professional Services for Transportation Industry Analyst. The views and opinions expressed in this report are that of the ICCT, and may not necessarily represent the position of the DBEDT. Page 2 of 171 Table of Contents i. List of Figures .......................................................................................................... 5 ii. List of Tables ........................................................................................................... 6 iii. Foreword ................................................................................................................. 7 iv. Executive Summary ............................................................................................... 8 I. Introduction ............................................................................................................ 14 A. Transportation Energy Analysis ..........................................................................................14 B. Project Timeline .................................................................................................................15 C. Status of Petroleum Use within Hawaii's Transportation Sector ..........................................17 II. Status of HCEI Road Map 2011 Edition Strategies ............................................ 19 A. Reduce Vehicle Miles Traveled ..........................................................................................20 B. Incorporate Renewable Fuels into Transportation Sector ...................................................21 C. Improve Vehicle Efficiency ..................................................................................................22 D. Accelerate the Deployment of EVs and Related Infrastructure ...........................................22 III. Master List of Tactics .......................................................................................... 23 IV. Qualitative and Quantitative Evaluation of Tactics........................................... 28 A. Vehicle efficiency ...............................................................................................................31 A.1 New fleet efficiency .......................................................................................................31 A.2 In-use fleet efficiency ....................................................................................................38 A.3 Fleet renewal ................................................................................................................41 B. Vehicle-miles traveled ........................................................................................................46 B.1 Adopt performance measures .......................................................................................46 B.2 Improve transportation infrastructure and land use planning .........................................48 B.3 Finance transportation alternatives with pricing measures and applications for federal funding ..................................................................................................................................52 B.4 Promote carsharing programs .......................................................................................61 B.5 Secure state support and funding of bikeshare programs .............................................65 B.6 Manage travel demand .................................................................................................67 C. Electric-drive vehicles .........................................................................................................70 C.1 Accelerate deployment of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles ...................................................70 C.2 Accelerate deployment of hydrogen fueling infrastructure .............................................73 C.3 Accelerate deployment of electric vehicles ....................................................................77 C.4 Reduce the cost of electricity for electric vehicle charging .............................................84 C.5 Expand electric vehicle charging infrastructure .............................................................88 D. Promoting Alternative Fuels ...............................................................................................91 D.1 Cellulosic biofuel ...........................................................................................................91 D.2 Sugarcane ethanol ........................................................................................................92 D.3 Biodiesel from waste fat ................................................................................................94 D.4 Compressed and liquefied natural gas ..........................................................................95 E. Aviation ..............................................................................................................................96 E.1 Improve aircraft fuel efficiency .......................................................................................96 E.2 Provide economic incentives to reduce airline fuel consumption ...................................99 E.3 Improve airline operating efficiency ............................................................................. 100 E.4 Reduce aircraft fuel consumption ................................................................................ 101 F. Marine .............................................................................................................................. 103 F.1 Operational optimization .............................................................................................. 103 F.2 Provide economic incentives to reduce marine fuel consumption ................................ 106 Page 3 of 171 F.3 Promote the use of alternative energy for marine vessels ........................................... 108 V. Recommendations ............................................................................................. 111 A. Criteria Ranking Methodology .......................................................................................... 111 B. Recommended Tactics and Implementation Schedule ..................................................... 112 B.1 Primary Target (11 tactics) .......................................................................................... 114 B.2 Secondary Target (12 tactics) ..................................................................................... 117 B.3 Monitor for Changes in Conditions (11 tactics) ............................................................ 122 B.4 Conduct Additional Research (4 tactics) ..................................................................... 126 C. Enabling Actions ............................................................................................................... 128 C.1 General ....................................................................................................................... 129 C.2 Vehicle-Miles Traveled ................................................................................................ 131 C.3 Electric-Drive Vehicles ................................................................................................ 132 C.4 Alternative Fuels ......................................................................................................... 136 D. 2030 Impact of Recommended Tactics ............................................................................ 138 D.1 Ground Transportation ................................................................................................ 138 D.2 Aviation and Marine .................................................................................................... 140 D.3 Impacts in Context of HCEI Clean Energy Target for Transportation .......................... 141 E. Funding ............................................................................................................................ 145 F. Implementation ................................................................................................................. 149 VI. Appendix ............................................................................................................ 152 A. Transportation Stakeholder Survey .................................................................................. 152 A.1 Summary of survey results .......................................................................................... 152 A.2 Selected