Why do Kenyans vote along ethnic lines? A Study of Underlying Rationales for Kenyan Electoral Behaviour (31,386 words) Sigrid Archer Master Thesis Department of Political Science, University of Oslo June 2009 Table of contents TABLE OF CONTENTS.......................................................................................................................................I ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ...........................................................................................................III MAP OF KENYA................................................................................................................................................IV ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS..................................................................................................................................V CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION....................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 RESEARCH QUESTION .................................................................................................................................... 3 1.2 STRUCTURE OF THE THESIS ........................................................................................................................... 4 CHAPTER 2 - BACKGROUND TO KENYA.................................................................................................... 6 2.1 THE RUN-UP TO INDEPENDENCE .................................................................................................................... 6 2.1.1 Developments in Central Province....................................................................................................... 7 2.1.2 Developments in the Rift Valley............................................................................................................ 8 2.1.3 The Mau Mau ....................................................................................................................................... 8 2.1.4 Settlement schemes ............................................................................................................................... 9 2.2 THE EVOLUTION OF POLITICAL PARTIES – KANU AND KADU ................................................................... 11 2.2.1 Constitutional debate and the dissolution of KADU........................................................................... 12 2.2.2 The Kenyatta Era................................................................................................................................ 13 2.2.3 Daniel Toroitich arap Moi.................................................................................................................. 16 2.3 POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN THE 1990S ................................................................................................... 18 2.3.1 From one-party state to multi-party state........................................................................................... 18 2.3.2 The elections of 1992 and 1997.......................................................................................................... 19 2.4 A NEW DEMOCRATIC ERA?......................................................................................................................... 22 2.4.1 Towards a new national alliance........................................................................................................ 22 2.4.2 New hope and prosperity.................................................................................................................... 24 2.4 3 Constitutional affairs.......................................................................................................................... 24 2.5 THE 2007 ELECTIONS .................................................................................................................................. 26 2.5.1 The campaign ..................................................................................................................................... 26 2.5.2 Results and Violence........................................................................................................................... 28 CHAPTER 3 – THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK.......................................................................................... 29 3.1 VOTER BEHAVIOUR ..................................................................................................................................... 30 3.1.1 Social structure................................................................................................................................... 30 3.1.2 Long-term predispositions.................................................................................................................. 31 3.1.3 Short-term factors............................................................................................................................... 33 3.2 THEORIES OF ETHNICITY ............................................................................................................................. 36 3.2.1 Primordialism and instrumentalism ................................................................................................... 37 3.2.2 Ethnopolitics....................................................................................................................................... 38 3.3 POLITICAL ENTREPRENEURS IN WEAK INSTITUTIONS................................................................................... 39 3.4 VOTING BEHAVIOUR IN AN ETHNICISED SOCIETY ........................................................................................ 41 CHAPTER 4 – METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH: ................................................................................... 44 A QUALITATIVE CASE STUDY .................................................................................................................... 44 4.1 SELECTION OF CASE: KENYA....................................................................................................................... 45 4.2 FIELDWORK IN KOROGOCHO AND UASIN GISHU ......................................................................................... 45 4.2.1 Korogocho .......................................................................................................................................... 47 4.2.2 Uasin Gishu........................................................................................................................................ 47 4.2.3 Data Collection .................................................................................................................................. 48 4.3 METHODOLOGICAL LIMITATIONS ................................................................................................................ 52 CHAPTER 5 - ANALYSIS................................................................................................................................. 53 5.1 ETHNIC DIVISIONS ....................................................................................................................................... 53 i 5.1.1 Elite manipulation and the politicisation of ethnicity......................................................................... 54 5.1.2 Politicisation of ethnicity; summed up................................................................................................ 60 5.2 SOCIAL CLEAVAGES – ETHNICITY, RELIGION AND CLASS............................................................................. 61 5.2.1 Ethnicity.............................................................................................................................................. 61 5.2.2 Religion .............................................................................................................................................. 62 5.2.3 Class ................................................................................................................................................... 63 5.3 LONG-TERM PREDISPOSITIONS .................................................................................................................... 64 5.3.1 Party identification – KANU .............................................................................................................. 64 5.3.2 Value orientations............................................................................................................................... 66 5.3.3 Ideology.............................................................................................................................................. 67 5.3.4 Clientelism.......................................................................................................................................... 70 5.4 SHORT-TERM FACTORS................................................................................................................................72 5.4.1 Issue voting......................................................................................................................................... 72 5.4.2 Retrospective voting ........................................................................................................................... 78 5.4.3 Party leaders ...................................................................................................................................... 79 5.4.4 Vote buying........................................................................................................................................