The London School of Economics and Political Science The Making of an Insurgent Group A Case Study of Hamas, Vox Populi and Violent Resistance The photograph: Gaza City on the 25-year anniversary of Hamas (REUTERS/Suhaib Salem) Richard Davis A thesis submitted to the Department of Government for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, London July 2014 In this and like communities, public sentiment is everything. With public sentiment, nothing can fail; without it nothing can succeed. Consequently, he who molds public sentiment goes deeper than he who enacts statutes or pronounces decisions. He makes statutes and decisions possible or impossible to be executed. - Abraham Lincoln A certain center of gravity develops, the hub of all power and movement, on which everything depends. That is the point against which all our energies should be directed. - Clausewitz Declaration I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the MPhil/PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others (in which case the extent of any work carried out jointly by me and any other person is clearly identified in it). The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. I warrant that this authorisation does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. I declare that my thesis consists of 123,959 words. 2 Acknowledgements My darling Heather and sweet London, words cannot express the unimaginable joy you bring to me. You are my life and this work could not have been accomplished without your loving devotion and patience. As for my parents, particularly my mother, your support and faith in my work have provided motivation for a lifetime. Dad, you were a loving and devoted father. Professor James Hughes, my friend and mentor, you set the bar high and I am thankful. Scott Atran you have taught me the power of understanding. David Lewis, Cynthia Hardison, David Creech, Rose Marquette, Doug Fears, Daniel Ostergaard, Andrew Smith, Mihai Toma and Decker Weiss you encouraged for the sake of reducing conflict. Michael Kerr and Ariel Merari your insights and critique improved the work immensely. Robert Axelrod, Victoria Haynes, Juan Zarate, Marc Sageman, Khalil Shikaki, Sean Smith, John Alderdice, Isaac Ben Israel, you are dear friends who have helped this research be better; may this work further contribute to the understanding of the human condition and to the reduction of violence - the goal we all seek. Statement of conjoint work Each of these persons helped me produce the following for this thesis: Sean Smith helped produce graphic representations of the Hamas Resistance Model. Dr. Rumen Illiev helped conduct advanced statistical analysis and printed time series charts. Jacqueline Lacy helped assemble the Hamas Policy Statement dataset. Shira Petrack translated several Hebrew publications into English. Stephanie Dornschneider translated a couple of Arabic documents used in this thesis. Statement of use of third party for editorial help I can confirm that my thesis was copy edited for conventions of language, spelling and grammar by Rachel Murray. 3 Abstract The critical gap in scholarship on power-seeking insurgent groups is to understand whether those groups adapt violent expression as a function of popular support. If such a relationship does exist, how does it work and under what conditions do violent acts increase or decrease? To understand these questions, one must understand that the ideals that make up power-seeking insurgent groups are malleable, requiring stratagem and guile in the face of internal and external violent and non-violent influence. To sustain the capacity to project violence, a power-seeking insurgent group must maintain the support of a significant portion of its host population. Without the populace’s tolerance or acceptance of violence, this agenda would not be supported over time. This reality creates a dynamic between the insurgent group and its host population, which is bi-directional, and creates profound implications for the nature of violent expression and is largely based upon environmental conditions. This research delves into these questions about insurgent groups by developing a case study on the power-seeking insurgent group Hamas and its host population, the Palestinian people. The empirical examination begins with the group’s formation in 1987 (and refers to foundations much earlier) and ends with the events of June 2014. During this period, the group, like other insurgent groups, has been suspended between its quest to achieve the values of its ardent supporters and the desire to grow popular support. By slightly modifying Max Weber’s theoretical premise that political groups must balance values with responsibilities, we can better understand how Hamas has managed the tension between supporters who demand continued violence against Israel and those that do not. With newly assembled datasets constructed by the author on Hamas’s violent acts and public statements, Israeli Targeted Killings, historical measures of popular support and extensive field interviews, the thesis offers a unique theoretical perspective on the nature of insurgent group violence by demonstrating under what conditions the group exercises violent resistance or refrains from doing so. For example, the research shows that Hamas violence against Israel follows Palestinians’ support for violence, countering the commonly held idea that Hamas acts as a vanguard of the Palestinian people. It also shows that the nature and method of Hamas violence against Israel changed once it had territorial control of Gaza. Finally, the methodological approach used in this case study can serve as a model to better understand the origins and dynamics of power- seeking insurgent groups elsewhere. 4 Table of Contents DECLARATION ....................................................................................................................................... 2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ........................................................................................................................ 3 STATEMENT OF CONJOINT WORK ...................................................................................................... 3 STATEMENT OF USE OF THIRD PARTY FOR EDITORIAL HELP ....................................................... 3 ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................................. 4 LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................................... 7 MAPS FOR REFERENCE ........................................................................................................................ 9 MAP 1 - BEFORE AND AFTER 1967 WAR (BBC ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT, N.D.) ............................. 9 MAP 2 - GAZA SMUGGLING TUNNELS (FRASER 2009) .............................................................................. 10 MAP 3 - GAZA STRIP (BBC GAZA STRIP 6 JANUARY 2009) ..................................................................... 10 MAP 4 – HAMAS MAP OF PALESTINE (NABISALEHSOLIDARITY, N.D.) .................................................. 11 MAP 5 – ISRAEL (CIA FACTBOOK 2013) ........................................................................................................ 12 MAP 6 - ISRAELI SETTLEMENTS AND OUTPOSTS IN THE WB (PEACE NOW MAPS 2013) ............... 13 MAP 7 - MAP OF GREEN LINE (PEACE NOW MAPS 2013) ......................................................................... 13 MAP 8 - SINAI PENINSULA (GOOGLE MAPMAKER 2013) .......................................................................... 14 MAP 9 - WEST BANK (UNIV. OF TEXAS LIBRARY MAPS 2012) .............................................................. 15 TERMINOLOGY USED IN THESIS ..................................................................................................... 16 PROLOGUE ......................................................................................................................................... 21 ILLUMINATING THE RESEARCH QUESTION .................................................................................. 21 CHAPTER ONE .................................................................................................................................. 25 HAMAS RESISTANCE: AN INTRODUCTION .................................................................................... 25 1.1 A CRITICAL CASE: HAMAS RESISTANCE AND THE PALESTINIAN PEOPLE ...................... 26 1.2 RESEARCH METHODS: THE QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE APPROACH ................. 27 1.2.1 DATASETS COLLECTED AND ASSEMBLED FOR THESIS ................................................................... 28 1.2.2 DATA ANALYSES ......................................................................................................................................... 38 1.3 THESIS STRUCTURE: THEORY, HISTORY, PERIODS, CAUSATION & MODELS ................ 40 CHAPTER TWO ................................................................................................................................. 44 HAMAS RESISTANCE THROUGH THE MULTI-DISCIPLINARY LENS ...................... 44 2.1 LITERATURE ON HAMAS ...........................................................................................................