research for a sustainable future Identifying low risk climate change adaptation: A case study of the Lachlan Catchment Management Authority Report No. 75 Anna Lukasiewicz C. Max Finlayson Jamie Pittock Contents Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................ 3 Executive summary ........................................................................................................ 4 Climate change adaptation in the Lachlan Catchment ................................................... 5 Background to the study ............................................................................................ 5 Project objectives ....................................................................................................... 5 Outcomes ................................................................................................................... 6 Methods...................................................................................................................... 6 Literature review .................................................................................................... 6 Stakeholder workshops .......................................................................................... 7 Semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders ................................................ 7 Limitations ................................................................................................................. 8 Further research ......................................................................................................... 8 The Lachlan Catchment ................................................................................................. 9 Climate change in the Lachlan Catchment ................................................................ 9 Addressing climate change in the Lachlan .............................................................. 10 Lachlan Catchment Action Plan riverine goals ....................................................... 11 Ecosystem-based approach to climate change adaptation ........................................... 12 Environmental flows ................................................................................................ 12 Environmental works and measures ........................................................................ 13 Thermal pollution control ........................................................................................ 13 Restoration of riparian vegetation ............................................................................ 14 Freshwater habitat connectivity ............................................................................... 15 Conservation of more resilient habitats ................................................................... 15 Conservation of gaining reaches .............................................................................. 16 Geomorphic restoration ........................................................................................... 16 Management of exotic species ................................................................................. 17 The CCA Catchment Assessment Framework for the Lachlan ................................... 19 Catchment relevance ................................................................................................ 19 Climate change adaptation potential ........................................................................ 19 Climate change adaptation benefit ....................................................................... 20 Discussion of adaptation benefits ........................................................................ 22 Adaptation effectiveness under different climate change scenarios .................... 22 Discussion of option effectiveness under different climate change projections .. 24 Potential for maladaptation .................................................................................. 24 Discussion of maladaptation potential ................................................................. 27 Ecosystem services benefits ..................................................................................... 28 Discussion of ecosystem benefits ........................................................................ 33 Constraints to implementation ranking .................................................................... 33 Discussion of adaptation option constraints ........................................................ 36 Socio-economic outcomes ....................................................................................... 37 Provision of environmental flows ........................................................................ 38 Environmental works & measures ....................................................................... 38 Restoration of riparian vegetation ........................................................................ 38 Conservation of more resilient habitats ............................................................... 39 Freshwater habitat connectivity ........................................................................... 39 Management of exotic species ............................................................................. 39 Risk assessment ....................................................................................................... 39 Discussion of risks of failure ............................................................................... 42 Conclusion ................................................................................................................... 43 1 References: ................................................................................................................... 47 List of Tables Table 1: CCA potential of each option ........................................................................ 21 Table 2: Effectiveness of various CCA options under different climate change projections in the Lachlan Catchment ................................................................................................ 24 Table 3: Maladaptation potential of the CCA options ................................................. 26 Table 4: Ecosystem services of the nine options ......................................................... 30 Table 5: Constraints to implementation of the nine CCA options ............................... 35 Table 6: Actual, perceived and hypothetical socio-economic outcomes ..................... 37 Table 7: Risk assessment matrix .................................................................................. 40 Table 8: Explanation of the consequences ................................................................... 40 Table 9: Explanation of the likelihood......................................................................... 40 Table 10: Risk assessment of the different CCA adaptation options........................... 41 Table 11: The Lachlan CCA CAF ............................................................................... 45 2 Acknowledgements This work was carried out with financial support from the Australian Government (Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency) and the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility. The views expressed herein are not necessarily the views of the Commonwealth or NCCARF, and neither the Commonwealth nor NCCARF accept responsibility for information or advice contained herein. The role of NCCARF is to lead the research community in a national interdisciplinary effort to generate the information needed by decision-makers in government, business and in vulnerable sectors and communities to manage the risk of climate change impacts. We are very grateful to all our key informants in the Lachlan Catchment and the Victorian State Government who willingly gave us their time, and knowledge of the issues. We are also grateful for the support of the Lachlan Catchment Management Authority for their dedication and ongoing support of this project. We especially would like to thank Fin Martin and Joanne Lenehan who acted as key facilitators in our partnership with the CMA and were always on hand to answer questions and provide advice. Special thanks also go to all the workshop participants who came together for the technical workshop in May 2012 and the CMA workshop in August 2012 to lend their expertise and knowledge. 3 Executive summary Water management under the highly variable Murray-Darling Basin climate has lessons and broad implications for climate policies, especially as some climate change adaptation measures proposed for ecosystems and water resources in southern Australia are overly narrow or maladaptive, or involve a high level of risk of institutional failure. In this project we brought together a range of experts and representatives from the Lachlan Catchment Management Authority (CMA) to assess the risks, costs and benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptation measures and consider the extent to which they represent maladaptation or may contribute to adaptation and resilience. Specific project objectives included: 1. Conduct detailed qualitative and quantitative assessment of the risks, costs and benefits of freshwater ecosystems mitigation and adaptation options in collaboration with technical experts, CMAs and other key stakeholders; 2. Identify a framework for intervention measures for each catchment that best spread risk and increase freshwater