University of Texas at Austin Course Outline Economics 329: ECONOMIC STATISTICS Fall 2016, Unique number 34060 T, Th 3:30 – 5:00 (WCH 1.120) Instructor: Dr. Valerie R. Bencivenga Office: BRB 3.102C Office hours (Fall 2016): T, Th 11:00 – 12:30 Phone: 512-475-8509 Email: [email protected] (course email) or [email protected] The best ways to contact me are by email and in person after class or in office hours. If I don’t answer my phone, do not leave a phone message – please send an email. Use the course email for most emails, including exam scheduling. COURSE OBJECTIVES Economic Statistics is a first course in quantitative methods that are widely-used in economics and business. The main objectives of this course are to explore methods for describing data teach students how to build and analyze probability models of economic and business situations introduce a variety of statistical methods used to draw conclusions from economic data, and to convey the conceptual and mathematical foundations of these methods lay a foundation for econometrics COURSE DESCRIPTION SEGMENT 1. The unit on descriptive statistics covers methods for describing the distribution of data on one or more variables, including measures of central tendency and dispersion, correlation, frequency distributions, percentiles, and histograms. In economics and business, we usually specify a probability model for the random process that generated the data (data-generating process, or DGP). The unit on probability theory covers the set-theoretic foundations of probability and the axioms of probability; rules of probability derived from the axioms, including Bayes’ Rule; counting rules; and joint probability distributions. MIDTERM #1. SEGMENT 2. Random variables are probability models of random quantities and events. We study the binomial, hypergeometric, and Poisson distributions, which are discrete random variables (used, for example, in quality control and to forecast customer arrivals). We study the uniform and normal distributions, which are continuous random variables (providing models of the amount of time to complete a task, or wages, for example). Random variables allow us to compute probabilities of events (for example, the probability a portfolio loses money, or the probability a bid wins in an auction). The chi-square, Student t, and F distributions, which are related to the normal distribution, are introduced for use later in this course and in econometrics. Sampling theory builds probability models of the impact of randomness in the DGP on statistics we compute from data. We derive sampling distributions of various statistics in the context of different DGPs. The Central Limit Theorem sometimes allows us to derive sampling distributions even when we don’t know much about the DGP. MIDTERM #2. SEGMENT 3. Sampling distributions provide a basis for choosing an estimator of a population parameter, and they allow us to calculate confidence intervals from data (intervals that quantify uncertainty in our estimates of parameters of the DGP, such as the true mean rate of output of a production process, or the true variance of the rate of return on a portfolio). We also develop hypothesis tests for a set of DGPs. Statistical inference (estimation and hypothesis testing) about one parameter of a single population and about the relationship of parameters across two populations are considered. FINAL EXAM. PREREQUISITES Grades of at least C- in ECO 304K and L and in MATH 408C and D or MATH 408K and L (or the equivalent) TEXTBOOK AND OTHER REQUIRED MATERIALS (1) The required textbook is INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS – A PROBLEM-SOLVING APPROACH, 2nd edition, by Stephen KOKOSKA (MacMillan), 2015. (2) The web-based homework lab for the textbook, called LaunchPad, also is required. LaunchPad comes with the complete e-book, so you can choose whether or not to acquire a printed copy of the textbook. (3) You’ll need an iClicker (any model). We’ll have for-credit clicker questions during most lectures. (4) You’ll need a calculator for in-class work, and for exams. Your calculator may not have wireless capability (no internet access), and it may not be capable of storing files. You have options for acquiring the textbook and access to LaunchPad. With the first option, use the access code included in the package to register for LaunchPad, and do not purchase access on the publisher’s web site. − Option 1. Loose-leaf textbook, packaged with an access code for LaunchPad + e-book (available at the UT Co-op Bookstore). (A hard copy of Kokoska, 2nd edition, also would be fine.) − Option 2. LaunchPad access + e-book. If you acquire the textbook by itself (not packaged with the access code), or decide not to buy a printed copy, you can purchase LaunchPad access on the publisher’s web site (http://www.macmillanhighered.com/launchpad/introstats2e/3856090). First see the LaunchPad “getting started” instructions on Canvas, and read the section on LaunchPad (below). EVALUATION Your course score will be based on two midterm exams (20% each), a final exam (35%), LaunchPad homework (10%), and participation points (15%). Your course score will be computed as a weighted average, using your percentage scores on these components. A course grade will be assigned based on your course score relative to the distribution of course scores in the class. Pluses and minuses will be used. This approach allows me to assign letter grades without an absolute scale, and to adjust the percentages of the class receiving different letter grades (within limits). The percentage of students receiving any particular letter grade is not predetermined. It is possible for all students to get a C or above, and for the large majority to receive an A or a B. However, lower grades will be assigned to students who do not demonstrate proficiency or mastery of the material. After the first midterm, I will announce tentative cutoffs (percentage scores) between A, A-, B+, etc. After the second midterm, I will update these tentative cutoffs, if necessary. Cutoffs will be posted in a Canvas announcement. EXAMS Bring a blue exam book to each exam, as well as a calculator (see “textbook” for restrictions on the type of calculator). Dates and times for the exams are as follows: Midterm #1 Thurs. Sep. 22, 7:00 to 9:00 pm Room assignments will be posted on Canvas Midterm #2 Thurs. Oct. 27, 7:00 to 9:00 pm Room assignments will be posted on Canvas Final exam Tues. Dec. 13, 2 – 5 pm Confirm date, time, and location on the registrar’s web site Let me know immediately if you have a conflict that prevents you from taking either of the midterms with the rest of the class. If you have a conflict with another class, or a conflict with a UT event or work that you cannot change, I will schedule your midterm at alternate time. Alternate exams are earlier in the day, or occasionally on the day before. Because of the size of the class, we give alternate exams only to students who legitimately need them. If you do not notify me of a possible conflict by Fri., Sep. 9 at noon, you will be required to take the midterm exams at the scheduled times unless an emergency arises. If you require an accommodation for a disability, please let me know about it as early in the semester as possible, even if you don’t yet have your accommodation letter from Services for Students with Disabilities. See the section on accommodations for students with disabilities (below). There will be no makeup midterms. If you miss a midterm due to illness, a personal emergency, or other valid reason, and if you provide me with documentation of the event, I will re-weight your other exams. An illness or emergency must be serious and unavoidable, and documented, in order for you to be excused. Otherwise, you will receive a zero for the missed exam. Contact me by email as soon as possible, to discuss your situation. You must take the final exam at the scheduled time unless you have a valid, documented reason. A request to take the final exam at an alternate time should be made well ahead. If an illness or emergency prevents you from writing the final exam at the scheduled time, contact me by email at the earliest opportunity. If the emergency is serious, unavoidable, and documented, you will receive an incomplete for the course, and a makeup final exam will be arranged, which may be during the following semester. 2 A deadline for raising grading issues will be announced after each midterm exam, together with a process for submitting a request for your exam to be re-graded. LAUNCHPAD LaunchPad is a web-based learning and homework lab. See “TEXTBOOK” above for your options for acquiring access to LaunchPad. The LaunchPad “getting started” instructions on Canvas describe how to use the access code to register if you purchase the bundle; how to purchase access if you do not purchase the bundle; and how to register for temporary LaunchPad access if you need to delay payment to LaunchPad. (A 21-day grace period is available, which starts when you register on the LaunchPad web site. LaunchPad will store scores on homework you complete during the grace period so you can do all of the LaunchPad homework, once you’ve registered, even before you pay.) Each student must register for LaunchPad. During registration, you’ll be prompted for your UT EID (necessary for us to associate your LaunchPad scores with your exam scores and participation points). LaunchPad will be used for two purposes – Launchpad homework and “makeup points” (see below). There will be approximately 10-12 LaunchPad homework assignments (some topics have more than one).