Using gross ecosystem product (GEP) to value nature in decision making Zhiyun Ouyanga,b, Changsu Songa,b, Hua Zhenga,b, Stephen Polaskyc,d,1, Yi Xiaoa,b, Ian J. Batemane, Jianguo Liuf,g, Mary Ruckelshaush, Faqi Shii, Yang Xiaoa, Weihua Xua,b, Ziying Zoub,j, and Gretchen C. Dailyh,k aState Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100085 Beijing, China; bCollege of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100049 Beijing, China; cDepartment of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108; dNatural Capital Project, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108; eLand, Environment, Economy and Policy Institute (LEEP), University of Exeter Business School, EX4 4PJ Exeter, United Kingdom; fDepartment of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48823; gCenter for Systems Integration and Sustainability, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48823; hNatural Capital Project, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305; iDepartment of National Accounts, National Bureau of Statistics, 100824 Beijing, China; jInstitute of Subtropical Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 410125 Changsha, China; and kDepartment of Biological Sciences, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 Contributed by Stephen Polasky, February 14, 2020 (sent for review July 5, 2019; reviewed by Onil Banerjee and Xinxiao Yu) Gross domestic product (GDP) summarizes a vast amount of eco- and restore ecosystem assets in order to maintain and enhance nomic information in a single monetary metric that is widely used the flow of important ecosystem services has been acknowledged by decision makers around the world. However, GDP fails to cap- at the highest levels of the Chinese government. In a widely cited ture fully the contributions of nature to economic activity and speech to the 19th Communist Party of China National Congress, human well-being. To address this critical omission, we develop President Xi Jinping said that “lucid waters and lush mountains a measure of gross ecosystem product (GEP) that summarizes the are invaluable assets” (15). value of ecosystem services in a single monetary metric. We illus- Here we focus on the development of gross ecosystem product trate the measurement of GEP through an application to the Chi- (GEP), a measure that translates ecosystem contributions to the nese province of Qinghai, showing that the approach is tractable economy into monetary terms. Much of the power of GDP comes using available data. Known as the “water tower of Asia,” Qinghai from its simplicity as a single monetary metric readily understood is the source of the Mekong, Yangtze, and Yellow Rivers, and in- by decision makers. Although the economy is incredibly complex, deed, we find that water-related ecosystem services make up nearly with hundreds of thousands of goods and services, GDP uses market SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE two-thirds of the value of GEP for Qinghai. Importantly most of prices and surrogates for market prices to combine the accounting these benefits accrue downstream. In Qinghai, GEP was greater value of goods and services into a measure of aggregate income. than GDP in 2000 and three-fourths as large as GDP in 2015 as its Just like the economy, ecosystems are incredibly complex and market economy grew. Large-scale investment in restoration resulted contribute to human well-being in myriad ways. Analogous to in improvements in the flows of ecosystem services measured in GEP GDP, GEP uses market prices and surrogates for market prices (127.5%) over this period. Going forward, China is using GEP in decision to calculate the accounting value of ecosystem services and ag- making in multiple ways, as part of a transformation to inclusive, green gregate them into a measure of the contribution of ecosystems to growth. This includes investing in conservation of ecosystem assets to secure provision of ecosystem services through transregional Significance compensation payments. gross ecosystem product | ecosystem services | natural capital | To achieve sustainable development, there is a pressing need environmental–economic accounting | GDP to move beyond conventional economic measures like gross domestic product (GDP). We develop gross ecosystem product (GEP), a measure that summarizes the value of the contribu- he global economy, as conventionally measured by gross tions of nature to economic activity. We illustrate the calcula- Tdomestic product (GDP), more than doubled between 1990 tion of GEP in Qinghai Province, China, to show that the and 2015 in constant dollar terms (1). At the same time, how- ’ approach is tractable both across China and globally. Known as ever, the world s stocks of ecosystem assets (such as forests, the water tower of Asia, Qinghai is the source of the Mekong, grasslands, wetlands, fertile soils, and biodiversity) and the flows Yangtze, and Yellow Rivers and nearly two-thirds of GEP de- of ecosystem services they provide have come under increasing rives from water-related values. GEP was greater than GDP in pressure. The loss and degradation of ecosystem assets has raised Qinghai in 2000, and was three-fourths as large as GDP in 2015. widespread concern about the resilience and sustainability of China is using GEP to guide investments in ecosystem conservation ecosystem services and the consequent threat to the economic and restoration. activity and human well-being that they support (2–8). The contrast between economic growth and environmental degradation Author contributions: Z.O., H.Z., S.P., I.J.B., J.L., and G.C.D. designed research; Z.O., C.S., is particularly striking in China. Over the past quarter century H.Z., S.P., Yi Xiao, I.J.B., J.L., M.R., F.S., Yang Xiao, W.X., Z.Z., and G.C.D. performed re- the economy has expanded 10-fold (1). The size of the Chinese search; Z.O., C.S., H.Z., S.P., Yi Xiao, I.J.B., J.L., M.R., F.S., Yang Xiao, W.X., Z.Z., and G.C.D. analyzed data; Yi Xiao designed figures; and Z.O., C.S., H.Z., S.P., I.J.B., J.L., M.R., and economy is currently second only to the United States and ac- G.C.D. wrote the paper. counts for roughly 15% of world GDP (1). However, this rapid Reviewers: O.B., Inter-American Development Bank; and X.Y., Beijing Forestry University. economic growth has been accompanied by environmental deg- – The authors declare no competing interest. radation in many regions of China (9 11). This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial- There is by now widespread recognition of the need to move NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND). beyond measures of GDP so that decision makers also pay attention Data deposition: All data used in this paper have been deposited in the Science Data to important ecological and social determinants and dimensions Bank, http://www.dx.doi.org/10.11922/sciencedb.00015. of well-being (12–14). China is of global significance, with its com- 1To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: [email protected]. bination of rapid economic growth alongside escalating threats to its This article contains supporting information online at https://www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/ ecological wealth, and is driving innovative work to bring eco- doi:10.1073/pnas.1911439117/-/DCSupplemental. logical information into decision making. The need to protect First published June 8, 2020. www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1911439117 PNAS | June 23, 2020 | vol. 117 | no. 25 | 14593–14601 Downloaded by guest on September 23, 2021 the economy. The power of GEP is enhanced by using similar nature makes to the economy (61–63). Second, we combine re- methods for its construction as those underpinning GDP. cent advances in ecosystem services modeling approaches with To become as influential as GDP in decision making, GEP must an integrated environmental–economic accounting framework be readily calculable from available data. A wealth of biophysical consistent with the SEEA to demonstrate how to make progress data exist on which to develop ecological measures. Ouyang et al. on empirical measures with existing data. (10) used multiple metrics from China’s National Ecosystem As- The government of China is now actively working to develop sessment (16) to summarize the change in ecological conditions and implement GEP. The National Development and Reform and ecosystem services between 2000 and 2010. One problem with Commission, in coordination with the Ministry of Ecology and using only biophysical measures, however, is the involvement of Environment, has launched pilot studies of GEP at provincial, multiple noncommensurate metrics, which pose a substantial municipal, and county levels. These pilots are aimed at devel- challenge for incorporation within conventional decision mak- oping GEP for evaluating government performance in key regions ing. For example, how can we compare changes in water quality (officially designated as “key ecological function zones”), and for measured in milligrams per liter of nitrogen with changes in assessing the effectiveness of policy to sustain cross-regional flows greenhouse gas emissions assessed in tons of carbon equivalent? of ecosystem services and improve livelihoods through compen- Furthermore, how can we compare these metrics to the costs of satory transfer payments between areas (63) (see SI Appendix, investment in restoration or the value of alternative investments? section S2 GEP Application in China, and Tables S8 and S9 for a Here, we use data on market prices where available, and develop list of ecological compensation programs and projects in China). methods to estimate surrogate prices where market prices do not exist for ecosystem services. We then combine the values of dif- Measuring GEP ferent ecosystem services into an aggregate measure of GEP. We constructed GEP using methods that parallel those used to We illustrate the development and application of GEP in a calculate GDP.