The Economic Impact of the Restoration of the Kennet and Avon Canal A Final Report to British Waterways ECOTEC Research & Consulting Limited Priestley House 28-34 Albert Street Birmingham B4 7UD United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0)121 616 3600 Fax: +44 (0)121 616 3699 Web: www.ecotec.com The Economic Impact of the Restoration of the Kennet and Avon Canal A Final Report to British Waterways c2378 Ref: 16/12/2014 ECOTEC Research and Consulting Limited Priestley House 13b Avenue de Tervuren 28-34 Albert Street B-1040 Brussels Birmingham B4 7UD Belgium United Kingdom Tel: +32 (0)2 743 8949 Tel: +44 (0)121 616 3600 Fax: +32 (0)2 743 7111 Fax: +44 (0)121 616 3699 Modesto Lafuente 63 – 6a Web: www.ecotec.com E-28003 Madrid E-mail: [email protected] Spain Tel: +34 91 535 0640 Fax: +34 91 533 3663 6-8 Marshalsea Road London SE1 1HL United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0)20 7089 5550 Fax: +44 (0)20 7089 5559 31-32 Park Row Leeds LS1 5JD United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0)113 244 9845 Fax: +44 (0)113 244 9844 The Economic Impact of the Restoration of the Kennet and Avon Canal Contents 1.0 INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................ 4 1.1 The Kennet and Avon Canal and its Restoration .............................................................. 4 1.1.1 The History of the Kennet and Avon Canal................................................................ 4 1.1.2 The 1997 Restoration Programme .............................................................................. 5 1.2 Aims and Objectives of the Study ..................................................................................... 5 1.3 Re-visiting the 1995 Coopers and Lybrand Study ............................................................. 6 1.3.1 Methodology and Results ........................................................................................... 6 1.3.2 Applicability of the Coopers and Lybrand Report to the Current Study .................. 10 1.4 Study Methodology ......................................................................................................... 12 1.5 Report Structure ............................................................................................................... 13 2.0 TOURISM AND LEISURE DEMAND MODEL ........................................................... 14 2.1 Context and Scope ........................................................................................................... 14 2.2 Demand Model Methodology .......................................................................................... 15 2.3 Results and Analysis ........................................................................................................ 19 2.3.1 Expenditure ............................................................................................................... 19 2.3.2 Employment .............................................................................................................. 20 2.4 Key Messages .................................................................................................................. 21 3.0 THE VIEWS OF TOURISM AND LEISURE BUSINESSES ....................................... 23 3.1 Context and Scope ........................................................................................................... 23 3.2 Constructing the Sample Frame ...................................................................................... 23 3.2.1 Defining the Canal Corridor ..................................................................................... 23 3.2.2 Constructing the Business Database ......................................................................... 24 3.3 Constructing the Questionnaire ....................................................................................... 25 3.4 Response Rate.................................................................................................................. 26 3.5 Background of Respondents ............................................................................................ 26 3.6 Employment Levels ......................................................................................................... 30 3.7 Business Turnover ........................................................................................................... 33 3.8 The Role of the Kennet and Avon Canal ......................................................................... 37 3.9 The Restoration of the Kennet and Avon Canal .............................................................. 41 3.10 Key Messages .................................................................................................................. 43 4.0 PROPERTY DEVELOPMENTS ALONG THE CANAL ............................................. 45 4.1 Context and Scope ........................................................................................................... 45 1 ECOTEC Research and Consulting Limited The Economic Impact of the Restoration of the Kennet and Avon Canal 4.2 Property Developments Identified by Coopers and Lybrand .......................................... 47 4.3 Property-Related Developments along the Canal since 1995 ......................................... 49 4.3.1 Bath and Environs ..................................................................................................... 50 4.3.2 Bradford-on-Avon..................................................................................................... 52 4.3.3 Hilperton and Staverton ............................................................................................ 53 4.3.4 Devizes and Environs ............................................................................................... 53 4.3.5 Pewsey ...................................................................................................................... 55 4.3.6 Newbury and Environs ............................................................................................. 56 4.3.7 Reading ..................................................................................................................... 57 4.3.8 Summary of the Economic Impact of Canal-Side Development .............................. 61 4.4 Future Property-Related Developments along the Canal ................................................ 66 4.4.1 The Western Riverside at Bath ................................................................................. 66 4.4.2 Lower Foxhanger Marina ......................................................................................... 67 4.4.3 Caen Hill ................................................................................................................... 67 4.4.4 Devizes Wharfside .................................................................................................... 67 4.4.5 Newbury Wharf ........................................................................................................ 68 4.4.6 Aldermaston Wharf and Environs ............................................................................ 69 4.5 The Impact of the Canal on Property Markets ................................................................ 69 4.5.1 The Economic Context of the Canal Corridor .......................................................... 69 4.5.2 The Property Market along the Canal Corridor ........................................................ 70 4.5.3 Conclusions ............................................................................................................... 71 4.6 Key Messages .................................................................................................................. 72 5.0 SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC IMPACT......................................................................... 75 5.1 Context and Scope ........................................................................................................... 75 5.2 Summary of Economic Impacts ...................................................................................... 75 5.2.1 Tourism and Leisure Impacts .................................................................................... 76 5.2.2 Property-Related Impacts.......................................................................................... 78 5.2.3 Construction-Related Impacts ................................................................................... 79 5.2.4 Total Economic Impact ............................................................................................. 79 5.3 The Role of the Kennet and Avon Canal ......................................................................... 79 5.3.1 The Tourism and Leisure Economy .......................................................................... 79 5.3.2 The Property Market ................................................................................................. 81 6.0 INDICATORS FOR FUTURE MONITORING............................................................. 83 2 ECOTEC Research and Consulting Limited The Economic Impact of the Restoration of the Kennet and Avon Canal 6.1 Introduction and Context ................................................................................................. 83 6.2 The Value of Monitoring Indicators ................................................................................ 83 6.3 Objective-Led Monitoring ............................................................................................... 84 6.4 Selecting