Preparing the Next in Tanzania Generation Preparing DIRECTIONS IN DEVELOPMENT Human Development Preparing the Next Generation in Tanzania Challenges and Opportunities in Education Arun R. Joshi and Isis Gaddis, Editors Preparing the Next Generation in Tanzania DIRECTIONS IN DEVELOPMENT Human Development Preparing the Next Generation in Tanzania Challenges and Opportunities in Education Arun R. Joshi and Isis Gaddis, editors © 2015 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 18 17 16 15 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpreta- tions, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. 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ISBN (paper): 978-1-4648-0590-5 ISBN (electronic): 978-1-4648-0591-2 DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0590-5 Cover photo: © 2015 Arne Hoel/The World Bank Cover design: Debra Naylor, Washington DC Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been requested. Preparing the Next Generation in Tanzania • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0590-5 Contents Foreword xiii Preface xv Acknowledgments xvii About the Editors and Authors xix Abbreviations xxiii Chapter 1 Introduction and Overview 1 Arun R. Joshi and Isis Gaddis Administrative Data Overestimate Primary Enrollment Rates 2 Late Entry and Unequal Access to Education Remain Important Concerns 3 Learning Outcomes Are Weak and Unequal 3 Service Delivery Failures Undermine the Performance of the Education Sector 4 Resource Allocations Are Often Misaligned, Unequal, and Inefficient 5 References 6 Chapte r 2 Primary Education in Mainland Tanzania: What Do the Data Tell Us? 7 Isis Gaddis and Johannes Hoogeveen Summary 7 Introduction 8 Children in Primary Schools 8 Discrepancies between Survey-Based and Administrative Enrollments 10 Late Entry to Primary School 15 Fewer Opportunities and Lower Quality for Poor Pupils 18 Challenges to Improving Primary School Enrollment 20 The Way Forward 23 Notes 24 References 25 Preparing the Next Generation in Tanzania • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0590-5 v vi Contents Chapter 3 Addressing Tanzania’s Gender Inequality Challenge in Secondary Schools 27 Oyin Shyllon Summary 27 Introduction 28 Gender Dimension of the Demand for Education Services 28 Causes of Nonattendance in and Dropping from School 34 Barriers, Remedies, and Drivers for Female Enrollment 37 Notes 43 References 44 Chapter 4 Assessing Literacy and Numeracy in Tanzania’s Primary Schools: The Uwezo Approach 47 Suleman Sumra, Sara Ruto, and Rakesh Rajani Summary 47 Introduction 48 Citizen-Led Assessment: The Key Tenets 48 Findings 50 Communicating with Key Actors 61 What Comes Next? 62 Notes 63 References 64 Chapter 5 An Educational Service Delivery Scorecard for Tanzania 65 Waly Wane and Isis Gaddis Summary 65 Introduction 66 The Service Delivery Indicators Project 66 The Analytical Underpinnings of the Service Delivery Indicators 68 Implementation of the Service Delivery Survey 71 Indicators and Pilot Results 72 Learning Outcomes: Test Scores in Education 79 Lessons Learned, Trade-Offs, and Policy Recommendations for Scale-Up 82 Notes 83 References 85 Chapter 6 Education Finance and Spending in Tanzania: Challenges and Opportunities 87 Oyin Shyllon and Arun R. Joshi Summary 87 Introduction 88 Preparing the Next Generation in Tanzania • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0590-5 Contents vii Education Finance in Tanzania 88 Private and Public Education Spending 89 Trends in Public Education Spending 92 Structural Imbalances in Public Education Spending Patterns 96 Public Education Unit Cost Estimates and Equitable Resource Allocations 105 Policy Recommendations 107 Annex 6A: Spending Patterns and National Education Strategies 108 Notes 109 References 110 Chapter 7 Value for Money in Education 113 Stevan Lee Summary 113 Introduction 114 Education Spending and Results: National Trends 114 Beyond the Averages: Unequal Funding, Unequal Outputs, and Local Inefficiencies 120 The Scale of Inefficiency 130 The Way Forward 133 Notes 134 References 135 Boxes 2.1 Administrative and Survey-Based Measures of Net Enrollment 11 3.1 Sumbawanga Parents Given Ultimatum to Send Girls to School 29 5.1 Microlevel Survey Instruments for Measuring Resource Flows and Service Delivery 67 5.2 Service Delivery Production Function 69 Figures 1.1 Trends in Enrollment and Exam Results, 2006–12 2 2.1 Net Primary Enrollment Rate since the Introduction of the PEDP 9 2.2 Net and Gross Primary Enrollment Rates by Region, 2010 9 2.3 Variations in Net Primary Enrollment Rates between Districts, 2006–07 (Selected Districts) 10 2.4 Discrepancies between Survey-Based and Administrative Net Primary Enrollment Rates by Region, 2010 11 2.5 Discrepancies between Survey-Based and Administrative Gross Primary Enrollment Rates by Region, 2010 12 Preparing the Next Generation in Tanzania • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0590-5 viii Contents 2.6 Share of Children Enrolled in Primary School by Age, 2004–05 and 2010 16 2.7 Share of Children Enrolled in Primary School by Age in Selected East African Countries 17 2.8 Share of Children Enrolled in Secondary School by Age in Selected East African Countries 17 2.9 Correlation between the District-Level Poverty Incidence and the Pupil-Teacher Ratio, 2001–02 19 2.10 Reasons Cited by Parents for Not Sending Their Eight-Year-Old Children to Primary School, 2006–07 20 2.11 Primary Enrollment in Kagera by Age and Nutritional Status, 2004 21 2.12 Distance to School and Primary Enrollment among Seven-Year-Old Children in Kagera, 2004 21 3.1 Few Countries Are Less Effective at Ensuring Girls Get to School 31 3.2 Among Youth, Primary Schooling Is the Norm for Girls with Boys More Successful at Progressing to Secondary Schooling 33 3.3 Young Women Leave Schooling Earlier Partly Because They Get Jobs Much More Quickly than Young Men 36 3.4 Young Women Leave Schooling Earlier Also Because They Get a Smaller Wage Premium from Staying Longer in School than Young Men 37 3.5 Young Women Require Adult Female Role Models to Emulate 38 3.6 Young Women (and Men) from Poorer Households Need Financial Support 39 3.7 Young Women Need Secondary Schools Closer to Their Homes 40 3.8 First Generation Reforms Targeted at Affordability Have Been Successful 42 4.1 Performance by Class and Subject (2010–11) 51 4.2 Kiswahili Reading Levels by Class, 2011 52 4.3 English Reading Levels by Class, 2011 53 4.4 Numeracy Levels by Class, 2011 54 4.5 Performance by Schooling Status 56 4.6 Performance by Language Spoken at Home 57 4.7 Percentage of Pupils Meeting Standard 2 Proficiency by Location 58 4.8 Average Teacher Attendance 59 4.9 School Libraries 59 4.10 Student Profile 60 5.1 The Relationships of