Iran: Politics, Gulf Security, and U.S. Policy Kenneth Katzman Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs February 23, 2016 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov RL32048 Iran: Politics, Gulf Security, and U.S. Policy Summary Since the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979, a priority of U.S. policy has been to reduce the perceived threat posed by Iran to a broad range of U.S. interests, including the security of the Persian Gulf region. U.S. officials express a broad range of concerns about Iran’s domestic and foreign policies, but the emergence of the Islamic State organization has reduced the gap in U.S. and Iranian regional interests. The implementation of a July 2015 “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action” (JCPOA) nuclear agreement between Iran and six negotiating powers has lessened, although not eliminated, U.S. concerns about Iran’s nuclear program. During the 1980s and 1990s, U.S. officials identified Iran’s support for militant Middle East groups as the primary threat posed by Iran to U.S. interests and allies. The perception of threat from Iran increased after 2002 as Iran expanded those aspects of its nuclear program that could be used to develop a nuclear weapon. The United States orchestrated broad international economic pressure on Iran to try to ensure that the program would be verifiably confined to purely peaceful purposes. The international pressure might have contributed to the June 2013 election of the relatively moderate Hassan Rouhani as president of Iran, whose government subsequently negotiated the November 2013 interim nuclear agreement, an April 2, 2015, framework for a comprehensive nuclear agreement, and the JCPOA. The JCPOA, which entered into force on October 18, 2015 and began formal implementation on January 16, 2016, has given the international community a degree of confidence that it would take Iran at least a year to produce a nuclear weapon in exchange for broad sanctions relief. The JCPOA has the potential to improve U.S.-Iran relations, but relations with Iran on regional issues have worsened in some respects since the agreement was finalized. In October and November 2015, Iran tested ballistic missiles that appear to constitute violations of applicable U.N. Security Council resolutions and has vowed to continue such tests. Iran has also increased its involvement in the Syria conflict in support of President Bashar Al Assad of Syria. Iran’s actions have strengthened the assertions of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman) and other U.S. allies such as Israel that the JCPOA will furnish Iran with additional political and financial resources to expand its regional influence. The United States and the GCC states have a long-standing and extensive security relationship that enables the United States to maintain about 35,000 military personnel at facilities throughout the Gulf. To try to reassure the GCC that Iran’s regional influence can and will be contained, U.S. officials have held several high level meetings with GCC leaders to increase security cooperation, including pledging additional U.S. arms sales. Domestically, Rouhani and the JCPOA appear to have broad support, but many Iranians say they also want greater easing of media and social restrictions. Iran’s judiciary remains in the hands of hardliners who continue to prosecute dissenters and hold several U.S.-Iran dual nationals on various charges—including U.S.-Iranian journalist Jason Rezaian. Another dual national was arrested after the JCPOA was finalized. Rouhani’s public support will be tested in elections for the parliamentary and a key clerical body to be held on February 26, 2016. The United States has supported programs to promote civil society in Iran, but successive U.S. administrations have stopped short of adopting policies that specifically seek to overthrow Iran’s regime. See also CRS Report R43333, Iran Nuclear Agreement, by Kenneth Katzman and Paul K. Kerr; CRS Report RS20871, Iran Sanctions, by Kenneth Katzman; and CRS Report R44017, Iran’s Foreign Policy, by Kenneth Katzman. Congressional Research Service Iran: Politics, Gulf Security, and U.S. Policy Contents Political History ............................................................................................................................... 1 U.S.-Iran Relations since the Iranian Revolution ...................................................................... 2 Regime Structure, Stability, and Opposition ................................................................................... 4 Unelected or Indirectly Elected Institutions: The Supreme Leader, Council of Guardians, and Expediency Council ...................................................................................... 6 The Supreme Leader ........................................................................................................... 6 Council of Guardians and Expediency Council .................................................................. 6 Elected Institutions/Recent and Upcoming Elections ............................................................... 9 The Presidency .................................................................................................................. 10 The Majles ........................................................................................................................ 10 The Assembly of Experts .................................................................................................. 10 Elections since 1989 and Their Implications ..................................................................... 11 Human Rights Practices .......................................................................................................... 15 The Strategic Challenge Posed by Iran ......................................................................................... 18 Nuclear Program and International Response ......................................................................... 19 Iran’s Nuclear Intentions and Activities ............................................................................ 19 International Diplomatic Efforts to Address Iran’s Nuclear Program ............................... 21 Developments during the Obama Administration ............................................................. 23 Weapons of Mass Destruction and Missile Programs ............................................................. 24 Chemical and Biological Weapons ................................................................................... 24 Missiles and Warheads ...................................................................................................... 25 Conventional and “Asymmetric Warfare” Capability ................................................................... 26 Asymmetric Warfare Capacity/Threat to the Gulf .................................................................. 28 Power Projection through Allies and Proxies: the Qods Force ............................................... 30 U.S. Policy Responses and Options .............................................................................................. 31 Obama Administration Policy: Pressure Coupled with Engagement ...................................... 31 Military Options and U.S. Defense Posture in the Persian Gulf and ...................................... 33 Military Options to Prevent a Nuclear Iran ....................................................................... 33 U.S. Partnership with the Gulf States to Counter Iran ...................................................... 35 GCC Military Capacity and U.S. Deployments in the Gulf .............................................. 37 Potential for Israeli Military Action Against Iran ............................................................. 43 Economic Sanctions ................................................................................................................ 43 Further Option: Regime Change ............................................................................................. 44 Democracy Promotion and Internet Freedom Efforts ....................................................... 45 Figures Figure 1. Major Persian Gulf Military Facilities ........................................................................... 40 Figure 2. Structure of the Iranian Government.............................................................................. 51 Figure 3. Map of Iran .................................................................................................................... 52 Tables Table 1. Major Factions, Personalities, and Interest Groups ........................................................... 7 Congressional Research Service Iran: Politics, Gulf Security, and U.S. Policy Table 2. Human Rights Practices: General Categories .................................................................. 16 Table 3. Iran’s Missile Arsenal ...................................................................................................... 26 Table 4. Iran’s Conventional Military Arsenal .............................................................................. 29 Table 5. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) ............................................................ 30 Table 6. Military Assets of the Gulf Cooperation Council Member States ................................... 42 Table 7. Selected Economic Indicators .........................................................................................