Estonian Development Strategy of Energy Related Technologies Final Report Pekka Huuhka Tõnu Hein Juhani Timonen Arina Lukovikova 25.5 .2007 Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications Estonian Development Strategy of Energy Related Technologies CONTENTS 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................................... 4 2 PROJECT METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................... 8 2.1 GENERAL PROJECT APPROACH ........................................................................................................... 8 2.2 MAIN PROJECT ACTIONS ..................................................................................................................... 9 3 BACKGROUND...................................................................................................................................... 10 3.1 THE STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES ............................................................................................................ 10 3.2 ENERGY INDICATORS ........................................................................................................................ 11 3.3 GENERAL FACTS .............................................................................................................................. 12 3.4 ELECTRICITY .................................................................................................................................... 14 3.5 ELECTRICITY PLAN ........................................................................................................................... 16 3.6 HEAT ............................................................................................................................................... 17 3.7 FUELS .............................................................................................................................................. 17 3.8 TECHNOLOGIES ................................................................................................................................ 18 4 OBJECTIVES ......................................................................................................................................... 19 5 THE CURRENT STATE OF ESTONIAN ENERGY RELATED TECHNOLOGIES ............................... 20 5.1 SWOT-ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................................. 20 5.2 COMPETENCE /T ECHNOLOGY PYRAMIDS 2007.................................................................................... 21 5.2.1 Production, Transmission, and Distribution of Electricity .................................................... 22 5.2.2 Heat Generation and Distribution ........................................................................................ 23 5.2.3 Production of Fuels.............................................................................................................. 24 5.2.4 Production of Energy Producing Technologies ................................................................... 25 6 FUTURE DEVELOPMENT ..................................................................................................................... 26 6.1 TRENDS ........................................................................................................................................... 26 6.1.1 Global and General Trends ................................................................................................. 26 6.1.2 Customer and Market Based General Trends .................................................................... 27 6.1.3 General Trends and Changes in the Branch....................................................................... 27 6.1.4 Technology Based Trends .................................................................................................. 28 6.1.5 Environmental Trends ......................................................................................................... 29 6.2 COMPETENCE /T ECHNOLOGY PYRAMIDS 2013.................................................................................... 30 6.2.1 Production, Transmission, and Distribution of Electricity .................................................... 30 6.2.2 Heat Generation and Distribution ........................................................................................ 31 6.2.3 Production of Fuels.............................................................................................................. 32 6.2.4 Production of Energy Producing Technologies ................................................................... 33 7 KEY CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................................................. 34 7.1 NEW GROUPING OF DEVELOPMENT AREAS ........................................................................................ 34 7.2 CONCLUSIONS DRAWN FROM THE ANALYSES ..................................................................................... 35 8 DIFFERENT SCENARIOS ..................................................................................................................... 37 9 FUTURE TARGET FOR ESTONIAN ENERGY POLICY ...................................................................... 38 10 VISION .................................................................................................................................................... 39 11 BOSTON MATRIX.................................................................................................................................. 40 12 KEY DEVELOPMENT AREAS............................................................................................................... 41 13 ROADMAP.............................................................................................................................................. 42 2 (105) 25.5.2007 Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications Estonian Development Strategy of Energy Related Technologies 14 OTHER MAJOR ENERGY RELATED INITIATIVES ............................................................................. 42 14.1 EUROPEAN STRATEGIC ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PLAN ......................................................................... 42 14.2 ESTONIAN ENERGY RELATED INITIATIVES ............................................................................................ 42 14.2.1 State Development Programme on the Utilisation of Oil Shale 2007–2015 (Ministry of the Environment, 15.02.2007) ................................................................................................... 42 14.2.2 Energy Efficiency Target Programme 2007–2013 (Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications, 15.02.2007) ............................................................................................ 42 14.2.3 The Programme on the Promotion of Biomasses’ and Bio Energy Utilisation 2007–2013 (Ministry of Agriculture, 25.01.2007) ................................................................................... 42 14.2.4 European Renewable Energy Programme ......................................................................... 42 14.2.5 Energy Related Projects Financed by Enterprise Estonia .................................................. 42 th 14.2.6 Estonian Participation to European 6 Framework Energy Related Projects..................... 42 15 PRESENT RESOURCES AND FUNDING............................................................................................. 42 16 RESULTS WITH TECHNOLOGY PROGRAMMES............................................................................... 42 16.1 TECHNOLOGY PROGRAMME TOOLS – GENERAL ................................................................................. 42 16.2 INTERNATIONAL BENCHMARKING : FINNISH TECHNOLOGY PROGRAMMES ............................................. 42 16.3 TECHNOLOGY PROGRAMME PREPARATION AND STRATEGY ................................................................ 42 16.4 OIL SHALE PROCESS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME ............................................................................ 42 16.5 RENEWABLE SOURCES DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME ......................................................................... 42 16.6 EMERGING ENERGY SOURCES DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME .............................................................. 42 17 TECHNOLOGY PROGRAMME MANAGEMENT IN ESTONIAN INNOVATION STRUCTURE........... 42 18 INTENDED RESULTS............................................................................................................................ 42 19 RISK ANALYSIS .................................................................................................................................... 42 19.1 RISK DEFINITION ............................................................................................................................... 42 19.2 RISK MITIGATION .............................................................................................................................. 42 20 APPENDICES......................................................................................................................................... 42 20.1 INTERNATIONAL BENCHMARKING ....................................................................................................... 42 20.1.1 Energy Production in Different Countries...........................................................................