2013 STATE OF THE NATION Where is bittersweet Britain heading? British Future is an independent, non-partisan thinktank seeking to involve people in an open conversation, which addresses people’s hopes and fears about identity and integration, migration and opportunity, so that we feel confident about Britain’s future. Editor: Rachael Jolley Copyright © January 2013 Contents That anxious, awkward stage? ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 2 The year ahead, our vision of 2013 ................................................................................................................................................................................ 4 Newcomers to Britain are more hopeful about economic recovery than those born here ....... 8 What’s driving immigration concern? ................................................................................................................................................................. 10 “Third of top earners say they are working class” ............................................................................................................................. 12 “Being a man and going to private school still gives you boost up the ladder to success” ........ 13 Scots say they will always feel British whatever happens ........................................................................................................ 14 Public sees NHS as symbol of nation and anniversary to celebrate ........................................................................ 16 Bittersweet Britain ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 18 Age versus youth? .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 20 Freedom of speech is top criterion “for being British” .............................................................................................................. 22 Polling data ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 24 British Future: Where we were in 2012 ......................................................................................................................................................... 33 British Future: What we did in 2012 .................................................................................................................................................................. 34 British Future in 2013 ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 36 NOTE: Numbers throughout this document do not always add to 100% because of rounding. That anxious, awkward stage? As 2013 starts Britons show a glimmer of hope about the future, Net but will it hold out, asks Rachael Jolley optimism: you and your family At the stroke of midnight on 1 January, the of their children will be better, or similar to, 21st century became a teenager. 2013 is not their own, in spite of the struggle many young 2013: +33% going to be the easiest year to celebrate people are encountering with entering the 2012: +26% in Britain; it might not enjoy the massive, jobs market. On the other hand, a quarter communal, heart-warming moments that its think their children are going to take a Britain predecessor had. It might, like an awkward shift down. 2013: -26% teenager, be a year far harder to love. 2012: -51% Like any adolescent, 2013 Britain is going to Even in tough times Britons in be tugged in different directions by those who think they know best about the future. Those 2013 share a deep national to the fore are: the different lobbies on the British relationship with the European Union; pride, feeling strongly that they those on different sides on whether we need a would “rather be a citizen of slimmed down public sector; as well as forces lobbying for and against Scottish independence; Britain than any other country those in favour of the government’s currrent in the world” immigration cap and those that aren’t; and those arguing that the “shirkers” have it easy and the workers need more support. Previous research for British Future found But despite the less glamorous image of that people who had a stronger connection to the year ahead, Britons feel a touch more their community – England, Scotland, Wales positive about their families and the places as well as Britain – were more likely to feel where they live at the start of 2013, compared optimistic, than those who did not. And this with the same moment last year. We are even report discovered that those who had moved a little bit less pessimistic about the British to Britain were most optimistic of all. economy than we were in New Year 2012. Even in tough times Britons in 2013 share a And when it comes to future-gazing, deep national pride, feeling strongly that they nearly half of parents think the quality of life would “rather be a citizen of Britain than any Hopes and fears: 2013 v 2012 74% 65% 58% 52% 52% 46% 34% 33% 31% 26% 19% 22% 20% 14% 9% 7% 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 FAMILIES PLACE I LIVE BRITAIN EUROPE Optimistic Pessimistic 2 British Future / State of the Nation other country in the world”. The nation we unfairly boosting chances of success. After a have a pride in values free speech for everyone, 12-month that contained plenty of headlines 3% even if you don’t agree with them, as the most about old Etonian culture in the Cabinet, the said 40th important quality of being British, according perception that the old school tie still strangles anniversary of to an Ipsos MORI poll of 16 to 75 year olds opportunity might not cause a shock wave, but Britain joining for this report, with respect for the law and the real surprise is that gender divide is felt to the European speaking English the next highest values. be almost as significant in determining chances Community Our pride also stretches to our national in life. Only 10% disagreed with the statement made them institutions (the NHS, the armed forces, and that you were much more likely to get to the proudest to Team GB polled as the top three). There is top if you had been to a private school, and a be British something else about these institutions that similar statement about being a man giving you makes them special; they all represent modern a boost, also drew just 10% disagreement. With Britain, and what we look and feel like today. just two women currently running FTSE 100 Not only do they serve the country in diverse firms, and with 79 firms in the FTSE 250 which ways, they are made up of people from every have male-only boards, it doesn’t feel like the corner of Britain, of different backgrounds, old male-dominated world has shifted as far accents and ethnicities, and we see them, all as we expected it would have. We are hardly three, as emblems of Britain at its best. sending a confident signal to teenagers about their chances being fair and equal, if they put While we might be proud in the graft. 100 years ago, commentators might have of some of our national thought that endless discussions about class would have disappeared by now. But in our institutions, we are critical Downton-obsessed world, the conundrum of what hasn’t changed of if and when class matters continues to fascinate. Our poll shows that among the richest in society – the ABs to use the social What we learnt last year was that a special scientists’ classification – no fewer than a occasion has the power to do more than just third choose to consider themselves working get us all watching television. Of all 2013’s rather than middle class in 2013. While their coming anniversaries – from the 150th of grandparents might have felt that moving the opening of the London Underground, to from working to middle class was a mountain the 50th of Dr Who, and the 60th of DNA’s worth climbing, there are those in Britain structure – the one that stands out to more of 2013 who feel that working class is the us than anything else is the 65th birthday of trendiest, most prestigious slot to choose. the NHS. The creation of the NHS changed A class reversal of a kind. Britain, by sweeping away systems that meant Another great debate of the age is medical care was obtainable only by those who whether the 1707 Act of Union is about to had money, and improved the lives of millions. be untied, and Britain will divide. But we The specialness of that sea-change moment can still find ties that bind, and connect, appears to have stayed with us, making it whatever the result. Even if Scotland becomes the 2013 anniversary most likely to make us an independent nation at some point, the proudest to be British. The NHS with its majority in the rest of the Britain (64%) feels offshoots and emergency rooms in every part it will never see the Scots as foreign, while the of the country appears to have a special status, majority