P1: GCQ CY103-EISINGER-FMA&B CY103-EISINGER.cls 0521816807 September 11, 2002 14:55 The Evolution of Presidential Polling ROBERT M. EISINGER Lewis & Clark College iii P1: GCQ CY103-EISINGER-FMA&B CY103-EISINGER.cls 0521816807 September 11, 2002 14:55 published by the press syndicate of the university of cambridge The Pitt Building, Trumpington Street, Cambridge, United Kingdom cambridge university press The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge cb2 2ru, uk 40 West 20th Street, New York, ny 10011-4211, usa 477 Williamstown Road, Port Melbourne, vic 3207, Australia Ruiz de Alarcon´ 13, 28014 Madrid, Spain Dock House, The Waterfront, Cape Town 8001, South Africa http://www.cambridge.org C Robert M. Eisinger 2003 This book is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published 2003 Printed in the United Kingdom at the University Press, Cambridge Typeface Sabon 10/12 pt. System LATEX[TB] A catalog record for this book is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Eisinger, Robert M. (Robert Martin), 1965– The evolution of presidential polling / Robert M. Eisinger. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. isbn 0-521-81680-7 – isbn 0-521-01700-9 (pbk.) 1. Presidents – United States. 2. Executive power – United States. 3. Public opinion – United States. 4. Public opinion polls. i. Title. jk516 .e37 2002 324–dc21 2002022283 isbn 0 521 81680 7 hardback isbn 0 521 01700 9 paperback iv P1: GCQ CY103-EISINGER-FMA&B CY103-EISINGER.cls 0521816807 September 11, 2002 14:55 Contents List of Illustrations page vi Acknowledgments vii 1 Seeking Autonomy: The Origins and Growth of Presidential Polling 1 2 Planting the Seeds of Presidential Polling 21 3 Checks and Imbalances: Congress and Presidential Polling 35 4 Dodging the Hill: Presidential Polling in the Post-Eisenhower Years 52 5 Take the Money and Poll: Parties and the Public Opinion Presidency 74 6 The Media Are Not the Messengers 105 7 Counting the People: The Evolution of Quantification and Its Effects on Presidential Polling 136 8 White House Polling in the Post-Watergate Era coauthored with Andrew Zahler 147 9 Presidential Polling in the Post-Reagan Era: Consequences and Implications of Presidential Polling 173 Bibliography 191 Index 209 v P1: GCQ CY103-EISINGER-FMA&B CY103-EISINGER.cls 0521816807 September 11, 2002 14:55 List of Illustrations Presidents Herbert Hoover and Franklin Delano Roosevelt page 44 Senator Hubert H. Humphrey and President John F. Kennedy 54 Harry O’Neill 70 Emil Hurja on the cover of Time magazine 82 President Lyndon B. Johnson and Oliver Quayle 91 President Richard Nixon and advisers 128 President Gerald Ford and advisers 149 President Jimmy Carter and Pat Caddell 158 President Ronald Reagan and Richard Wirthlin 165 President Bill Clinton and Stan Greenberg 180 vi P1: FDM/FUG CY103-01 CY103-EISINGER.cls 0521816807 August 21, 2002 8:15 1 Seeking Autonomy The Origins and Growth of Presidential Polling We have practically no systematic information about what goes on in the minds of public men as they ruminate about the weight to be given to public opinion in governmental decision.1 Since Franklin Delano Roosevelt, all presidents with the exception of Harry Truman have privately polled citizens. Yet presidential polling remains a puzzle. How have presidents used polls? What are the implications of pres- idential polling? How have polls become the predominant means by which presidents gauge public opinion? This book attempts to answer these ques- tions by conducting a comprehensive study of presidential polling from the Hoover years to the present. I argue that the emergence and proliferation of presidential polling stem from the tenuous relationships between the pres- idency and other institutions – specifically Congress, political parties, and the media – that formally served as conduits of public opinion. Simply put, presidents do not trust these institutions, and opt to poll privately rather than rely on them as links to the American people. President Nixon best exemplifies a president who distrusted these insti- tutions and used polls to gain autonomy and power. According to one of Nixon’s advisers, President Nixon believed that “in order to reduce federal power, it was first necessary to increase presidential power.”2 Nixon ad- mits that he was determined to “knock heads together in order to get things 1 V.O. Key, Jr., “Public Opinion and the Decay of Democracy,” Virginia Quarterly Review 37 (Autumn 1961): 490. 2 Joan Hoff, Nixon Reconsidered. New York: Basic Books, 1994,p.67. Italics in original. Nixon continued this line of thought, saying that “Bringing power to the White House [was necessary] in order to dish it out.” Ibid. For more on President Nixon’s attempts to reor- ganize the executive branch, see Richard P. Nathan, The Plot that Failed: Nixon and the Administrative Presidency. New York: Wiley, 1975. 1 P1: FDM/FUG CY103-01 CY103-EISINGER.cls 0521816807 August 21, 2002 8:15 2 The Evolution of Presidential Polling done” in Congress. He recognized early in his presidency that resistance from Congress would be the norm rather than the exception.3 How did Nixon generate presidential power? In part, by using polls. He appointed his chief of staff, H.R. Haldeman, to “get in touch” with the average American.4 Haldeman shared Nixon’s view that the Democrat- controlled Congress was “an awkward and obnoxious obstacle, a hostile foreign power.”5 And so Haldeman read polls – voraciously – and denied others access to the poll data he was perusing. When Nixon aide Charles Colson asked to see an April 1971 poll about veterans, Haldeman denied the request, stating that “the President has ordered that no one is to see it.”6 Events inevitably shaped opinions about the president. Public opinion helped determine which events to highlight or downplay in the media and therefore public opinion had to be monitored. Haldeman believed that poll data could be used as a means to advance the administration’s legislative agenda. “The President was concerned as a result of the meeting with the Senators yesterday afternoon that we hadn’t gotten the favorable poll data to them,” Haldeman wrote.7 Local polls showing support for President Nixon’s policies were to be disseminated to enhance the president’s popularity in order to ward off presidential challengers. Why? Because Haldeman and Nixon understood that poll data affected legislators’ decisions. Nixon’s advisers did not want Congress to question how they were paying for polls and feared receiving negative attention if Congress learned about the president’s extensive polling operation. The polls were his; they were none of Congress’ business. Moreover, the polls had political overtones, and as a result, could not be paid for with governmental funds. So the White House resorted to outside funding, namely, the Republican National Committee (RNC) and private (sometimes secret) persons. When asked at one point if he could raise money to pay for some polls, Colson responded, “I would rather not because it is a drain from a more important use later and is a little bit dangerous.”8 In another instance, Haldeman informed Colson that he could not see a poll, adding that the paying for polls was aided by a secret 3 Richard M. Nixon, RN: The Memoirs of Richard Nixon, Vol. I. New York: Warner Books, 1979,p.414. 4 H.R. Haldeman, Haldeman Diaries. CD-ROM (New York: Sony, 1994, January 29, 1969). Also see Lawrence R. Jacobs and Robert Y. Shapiro, “The Rise of Presidential Polling: The Nixon White House in Historical Perspective,” Public Opinion Quarterly 59 (1995): 165. 5 Rowland Evans, Jr., and Robert D. Novak, Nixon in the White House: The Frustration of Power. New York: Random House, 1971,p.109. 6 Richard Milhous Nixon Project at the National Archives [RMNP@NA], “ORC 4-28-30/71 Veterans Survey,” Memorandum from Larry Higby to H.R. Haldeman (about Colson’s request), May 4, 1971, Haldeman Files, Box 349. 7 Ibid., Memorandum from Larry Higby to H.R. Haldeman, April 23, 1971, Box 334. 8 Charles Colson, in Lawrence R. Jacobs and Robert Y. Shapiro, “The Rise of Presidential Polling: The Nixon White House in Historical Perspective,” Public Opinion Quarterly 59 P1: FDM/FUG CY103-01 CY103-EISINGER.cls 0521816807 August 21, 2002 8:15 Seeking Autonomy 3 source. “And we can pay for it,” reads a handwritten note by Haldeman, “the front man was in case we released it.”9 Nixon’s polls asked about a wide range of topics – the Vietnam War, whether J. Edgar Hoover should retire, and even if Nixon were responsible for the Watergate break-in. President Nixon read some of these polls and their accompanying analyses. In one memorandum, Nixon even criticized the question wording, claiming that alternative response options were more valuable. Haldeman’s tight reins over access to poll data, and the secrecy, breadth, and depth of these polls all indicate how Nixon’s polling operation was a critical part of his strategy to deal with Congress, the media, and both the Republican and Democratic parties. the evolution of presidential polling Private presidential polling began during the Franklin Delano Roosevelt (FDR) administration, when Hadley Cantril, a Princeton University psy- chology professor and colleague of one of the founders of polling, secretly worked as an unpaid, unofficial public opinion advisor for the FDR White House. The polls that FDR received differ from the private polls of mod- ern presidents in that FDR never hired Cantril or another public opinion expert as a private White House pollster.