THE EFFECT OF DISASTERS ON DEVELOPMENT: VAN AND BINGOL CASE STUDIES A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF NATURAL AND APPLIED SCIENCES OF THE MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY BY TUĞBA GÜL IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN EARTHQUAKE STUDIES JUNE 2014 ii ii Approval of the thesis: THE EFFECT OF DISASTERS ON DEVELOPMENT: VAN AND BINGOL CASE STUDIES submitted by TUĞBA GÜL in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Earthquake Studies Department, Middle East Technical University by, Prof. Dr. Canan Özgen ___________ Dean, Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences Prof. Dr. Melih Ersoy ___________ Head of Department, Earthquake Studies Assist. Prof. Dr. Berna Burçak Başbuğ Erkan ___________ Supervisor, Statistics Dept., METU Dr. Meltem Şenol Balaban ___________ Co- Supervisor, City and Regional Planning Dept., METU Examining Committee Members: Prof. Dr. Özlem Yılmaz ___________ Business Administration Dept., METU Assist. Prof. Dr. Berna Burçak Başbuğ Erkan ___________ Statistics Dept., METU Prof. Dr. Melih Ersoy ___________ City and Regional Planning Department., METU Dr. Meltem Şenol Balaban ___________ City and Regional Planning Department., METU Dr. Ali Tolga Özden ___________ Architecture Dept., Süleyman Demirel University Date: ___________ iii I hereby declare that all information in this document has been obtained and presented in accordance with academic rules and ethical conduct. I also declare that, as required by these rules and conduct, I have fully cited and referenced all material and results that are not original to this work. Name, Last Name: Tuğba GÜL Signature: iv ABSTRACT THE EFFECT OF DISASTERS ON DEVELOPMENT: VAN AND BINGOL CASE STUDIES Gül, Tuğba M.Sc., Department of Earthquake Studies Supervisor : Assist. Prof. Dr. Berna Burçak Başbuğ Erkan Co- Supervisor : Dr. Meltem Şenol Balaban June 2014, 137 Pages The increase of the number of natural, technological and man-made disasters and economic losses due to disasters caused an increase in significance of the studies that investigate the relationship between disaster and development. Turkey has actualized many studies after the 1999 Marmara Earthquake, however, the focus of disaster policies are still concentrated on response and reconstruction/recovery stages of disaster. 2003 Bingöl and 2011 Van earthquakes showed that disasters still cause economic burden on the economy. This study discusses disaster and development relationship within the frame of vulnerability. It explores countries at different development level to observe whether disasters are obstacles of development or disasters are opportunity for development. In this study, economic losses caused by disasters, disaster legislation and development plans of Turkey are discussed. Reasons of high economic losses in Turkey due to disasters are explored. This thesis aims to contribute to show how disasters affect the economy of different cities for the development of efficient policies on disaster risk reduction. Therefore, 2011 Van and 2003 Bingöl earthquakes, the significant disasters in terms of the number of affected people since 2000, are chosen as case studies. The change in macroeconomic variables due to earthquakes in these two provinces is investigated. Key Words: Development, Disaster, Disaster Economy Policies, Risk Reduction, v ÖZ AFETLERİN KALKINMAYA ETKİSİ VAN VE BİNGÖL ÖRNEKLERİ Gül, Tuğba Yüksek Lisans, Deprem Çalışmaları Tez Yöneticisi: Yrd. Doç. Dr. Berna Burçak Başbuğ Erkan Ortak Tez Yöneticisi : Dr. Meltem Şenol Balaban Haziran 2014, 137 Sayfa Son yıllarda doğal, teknolojik ve insan kökenli afetlerin sayısının ve bunlardan kaynaklanan ekonomik kayıpların artması afetlerin ekonomik etkilerini ve kalkınma ile olan ilişkisini inceleyen çalışmaların önemini artırmıştır. Ülkemiz afetlerin ekonomik etkilerini azaltma konusunda özellikle 1999 Marmara Depremi’nden sonra birçok çalışmayı gerçekleştirmiş olsa da; afet politikaları hala müdahale ve iyileştirme odaklıdır. 2003 Bingöl ve 2011 Van Depremleri afetlerin kent ekonomisi için hala bir yük olduğunu kanıtlar niteliktedir. Bu çalışma, afet-kalkınma ilişkisini, afetlerin kalkınmaya engel olduğu veya kalkınmayı desteklediğini, gelişmişlik düzeyi farklı ülkeler üstünde yapılan çalışmalar ve zarar görebilirlik kavramı çerçevesinde incelemektedir. Türkiye’de afet ekonomisi için yapılan çalışmalar; yaşanan afet kayıpları, nedenleri, afet mevzuat çalışmaları ve kalkınma planları üzerinden tartışılmış ve ülkemizde afetlerin ekonomik kayıplarının neden fazla olduğu sorusuna yanıt aranmıştır. Bu tez, Türkiye’nin afetlerin ekonomik risklerini azaltma konusunda etkin politikalar üretmesi için afetlerin kent ekonomisini nasıl etkilediğini göstermesi amacına da katkı sağlamayı hedeflemektedir. Bu nedenle, 2000’li yıllarda çok sayıda insanı etkileyen depremlerden 2011 yılında gerçekleşen Van, ve 2003 yılında gerçekleşen Bingöl, depremleri örnek olarak seçilmiş ve depremlerin kentlerin makroekonomik değişkenleri üstündeki etkileri yorumlanmıştır. Anahtar Kelimeler: Afet, Afet Ekonomi Politikaları, Kalkınma, Risk Azaltma. vi To my family, vii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I would like to express my deep appreciation, Assist. Prof. Dr. Berna Burçak BAŞBUĞ ERKAN, who accepted me as her MSc. student for her guidance, encouragement and support. She always answers my questions with patient and shares her knowledge with me throughout the research. Her interest on my thesis was priceless. I would like to express sincere gratitude my co-supervisor, Dr. Meltem ŞENOL BALABAN for support and encouragement. She always answers my questions, gives seminal ideas and shares her knowledge with me throughout the research I would also like to thank to my examining committee, Prof. Dr. Melih ERSOY, Dr Ali Tolga ÖZDEN and Prof. Dr. Özlem YILMAZ, for their valuable discussions, comments and suggestions. Their help have improved the quality of my thesis. I am also thankful to all teachers in Disaster Management Department who tought me lots of things about disaster management and Dr. İbrahim Erkan for his contribution on modelling in my thesis progress. I also want to express my thanks to Cem BAŞ and Selen ARLI YILMAZ for their support on data. I would like to thank my parents who supported me in every phase of my education. I greatly appreciate their support, encouragement, and everlasting patience, unconditional and endless love. But most of all, I also owe a special thanks to my dear husband, Mevlüt ALKAN for his encouragement and kindness. He always listened to my complaints and gave me advice, not to mention his tolerance during stressful times. He always motivated for the study and cheered me by laughter. viii TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT……………………………..………………………………………...............v ÖZ ……………………………………………………………………….........................vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ………………………………………………………………viii TABLE OF CONTENTS...………………………………………………………………..ix LIST OF TABLES ………………………………………………………………………..xi LIST OF FIGURE……………………………………………………………………..…xiii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS…...………………………………...……………………...xv CHAPTERS ………………………………………………………………………………...1 1.INTRODUCTION ………………………………………………………………...1 1.1.Introduction ………………………………………………………...1 1.2.Problem Definition …………………………………………………3 1.3. The Aim and Scope of the Study …………………………………4 2.DISASTER AND DEVELOPMENT …………………………………………7 2.1. Impact of Natural Disasters …………………………………………7 2.2. Earthquake Economic Losses Around the World ………………..12 2.3. Disaster and Development ………………………………………..21 2.3.1. Disaster and the Long Run Effects ………………………..43 2.3.2. Disaster and the Short Run Effects ………………………..47 3.DISASTER RELATED LOSSES IN TURKEY ………………………………..53 3.1. Disaster Management ………………………………………………..53 3.2. Earthquake Profile of Turkey ………………………………………..57 3.3. Economic Effect of Earthquakes in Turkey ………………………..62 3.3.1. 17 August 1999 Marmara Earthquake ………………………..67 3.4. Why Earthquakes Cause Significant Economic Losses in Turkey? ...70 3.4.1. Urban Management ………………………………………..71 3.5. Development Plans in Turkey and Link to Disasters ………………..76 4.CASE STUDIES ……………………………………………………………….81 4.1. The Bingöl Earthquake, 1 May, 2003 ………………………………..81 ix 4.2. The Van Earthquakes, 23 October and 9 November, 2011….....87 4.3.Modelling ……………………………………………………….95 5.CONCLUSION ……………………………………………………...105 5.1. Summary, Findings and Suggestions of the Research ……….105 5.2. Recommendations for Further Studies ………………………114 REFERENCES ……………………………………………………………...117 GLOSSARY ……………………………………………………………………...133 APPENDICES……………………………………………………………………..137 A.NUTS LEVEL 2-26 REGIONS…………………………………………137 x LIST OF TABLES TABLES Table 1: Tangible vs. Intangible Impacts of Disasters ................................................. 9 Table 2: Model Comparison ...................................................................................... 12 Table 3: Total Amount of disasters estimated damage, by type of phenomenon and year (2002-2011) in millions of US dollars ............................................................... 15 Table 4: Disaster-Development Relationship ............................................................ 30 Table 5: Effects of Disasters on Macroeconomic Indicator ....................................... 33 Table 6: Macroeconomic consequences and economic vulnerability to natural hazards........................................................................................................................ 41 Table 7: The Long-Term Effect of Disasters ............................................................