Understanding Gloucester 2015 Produced by the Strategic Needs Analysis Team, Gloucestershire County Council Version: v1.0 Contents 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................ 3 2. Executive summary .................................................................................................... 4 3. Gloucester context ................................................................................................... 13 3.1 About this section ................................................................................................. 13 3.2 Demographics ....................................................................................................... 13 3.3 Deprivation ........................................................................................................... 19 3.4 Life expectancy ..................................................................................................... 26 3.5 Mortality ................................................................................................................ 28 3.6 Economy ............................................................................................................... 31 3.7 Protected characteristics ....................................................................................... 50 3.8 Key messages ...................................................................................................... 57 4. Getting the right start in life ....................................................................................... 60 4.1 About this section ................................................................................................. 60 4.2 Maternity ............................................................................................................... 60 4.3 Sexual Health ....................................................................................................... 63 4.4 Maintaining a healthy weight in childhood ............................................................. 64 4.5 Educational outcomes ........................................................................................... 67 4.6 Promoting the welfare of children and Safeguarding ............................................. 84 4.7 Key messages ...................................................................................................... 88 5. Keeping healthy – prevention ................................................................................... 90 5.1 About this section ................................................................................................. 90 5.2 Alcohol .................................................................................................................. 90 5.3 Smoking ................................................................................................................ 91 5.4 Maintaining a healthy weight in adults ................................................................... 91 5.5 Social Isolation ...................................................................................................... 93 5.6 Key messages ...................................................................................................... 96 6. Particular Needs ....................................................................................................... 98 6.1 About this section ................................................................................................. 98 6.2 Disability ............................................................................................................... 98 6.3 Mental health ...................................................................................................... 112 6.4 Long-term conditions .......................................................................................... 113 6.5 Dementia ............................................................................................................ 114 6.6 Service use profile – community-based care ....................................................... 117 6.7 Service use profile – residential and nursing care ............................................... 118 6.8 Place of death ..................................................................................................... 120 1 6.9 Key messages .................................................................................................... 121 7. Healthy and Sustainable Places and Communities ................................................. 124 7.1 About this section ............................................................................................... 124 7.2 Community Assets .............................................................................................. 124 7.3 Carers ................................................................................................................. 125 7.4 Volunteering........................................................................................................ 128 7.5 Culture and Leisure ............................................................................................. 129 7.6 Transport ............................................................................................................ 132 7.7 Housing .............................................................................................................. 134 7.8 Community Safety............................................................................................... 151 7.9 Key messages .................................................................................................... 155 2 1. Introduction Understanding Gloucester has been produced to provide an understanding of the district and its communities. It looks at the needs of communities and how we expect them to change in the future and assesses current and future health and social care needs of the citizens of Gloucester. The report is part of a suite of documents, which also includes; Understanding Cheltenham, Understanding Cotswold, Understanding Forest of Dean, Understanding Stroud, Understanding Tewkesbury, and Understanding Gloucestershire – A Joint Strategic Needs Analysis. Where possible the documents follow a similar structure to one another, although difficulties in obtaining some data at district level means Understanding Gloucestershire – A Joint Strategic Needs Analysis, features some topics that are not available in the other reports. For any feedback please contact the Strategic Needs Analysis Team: [email protected] 3 2. Executive summary Gloucester Context The population of Gloucester was estimated to be around 125,600 in 2014, representing a rise of approximately 13,000 people since 2004, an average increase of 1,300 people per annum. This is equivalent to an annual growth of 1.16% in the 10 years to 2014, well above the Gloucestershire and England & Wales averages of 0.68% and 0.80% respectively. Between 2004 and 2014, the older population (aged 65 and above) in Gloucester was rising faster than the younger population. However, the growth rate in the district’s older population was lower than those in Gloucestershire. Assuming current population trends continue, the ONS projections for the next 25 years suggest that the population in Gloucester will reach 138,300 by 2025 and 148,800 by 2037. The dominating feature of the projected trend for Gloucester is a sharp increase in the number of older people (aged 65+). At the same time, projections for children, young people and the working age group indicate slower growth. The number of older people aged 65 and above in Gloucester has been growing by an average of 300 people per year between 2004 and 2014. Projections suggest that this will increase to 630 per annum between 2012 and 2037. Significantly, the projected percentage increase of the older population is higher in Gloucester than in Gloucestershire over the period 2012-2037. The 2011 Census showed that 12,750 people who were usually resident in Gloucester were born outside the UK, representing 10.5% of the total population (compared to 7.7% for the county and 13.4% nationally). Among these, 43% (5,490 people) were recent migrants, having arrived since 2004. Ethnic groups showing the biggest growth in Gloucester in the 10 years to 2011 were ‘White-British’ (+3,870 people), 'White-other' (+3,160), ‘Indians’ (+1,100) and ‘Black-African’ (+860). In IMD 2015, 10 of the most deprived neighbourhoods (LSOAs) are in Gloucester, and the remaining 3 in Cheltenham. Westgate 1 (Gloucester) is the most deprived neighbourhood in the county, with a national ranking of 360, whilst in 2010 it was Podsmead 1 (Gloucester) at 809. Females in Gloucester can generally expect to live around 4 years longer than their male counterparts. Over the past decade life expectancy has been significantly lower for Gloucester residents than the county average. The three leading causes of death in Gloucester are cancer, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and respiratory disease, respectively. This is consistent with the national picture. 4 The rate of excess winter deaths in Gloucester rose from 2006-09 to 2008-11, but has since dropped. It was previously higher than the national and county, but is now in line with these benchmarks. Employment has declined over the last five years but is predicted to grow albeit at a conservative rate. Unemployment in terms of