A participatory approach to developing a holistic and interdisciplinary adaptive capacity index for urban livelihoods Jaime Davidson DVDJAI002 Supervisors: Associate Professor Gina Ziervogel and Professor Martine Visser Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements of an MSc in UniversityEnvironment, Society of andCape Sustainability Town Department of Environmental and Geographical Sciences University of Cape Town June 2016 The copyright of this thesis vests in the author. No quotation from it or information derived from it is to be published without full acknowledgement of the source. The thesis is to be used for private study or non- commercial research purposes only. Published by the University of Cape Town (UCT) in terms of the non-exclusive license granted to UCT by the author. University of Cape Town Plagiarism declaration I know the meaning of plagiarism and declare that all of the work in the dissertation, save for that which is properly acknowledged, is my own. Signature ______________________________ Signature removed i Acknowledgements This research would not have been possible without the collaboration of the FLOW Programme. I am so grateful for guidance and valuable insights that I gained from discussions with the FLOW Project Team. I would also like to thank the FLOW Ambassadors and FLOW Coordinator, Ian Schaffers, who so willingly participated in workshops and provided rich insights into the Bergrivier community. Thank you to Gina Ziervogel, Penny Price and Anna Cowen for all their assistance in designing and facilitating the workshops. I would like to thank my supervisors, Gina Ziervogel and Martine Visser, for the constant guidance and support they provided throughout this research. I have learnt so much through the process. Thank you to my friends and family for the encouragement and support during the past year. My heartfelt thanks go to my parents for funding my studies and encouraging me to pursue my Masters in a new field. ii Abstract A participatory approach to developing a holistic and interdisciplinary adaptive capacity index for urban livelihoods Evaluating the success of the growing number of climate adaptation initiatives is challenging. Assessment of adaptive capacity has been used to focus, prioritise and track the progress of adaptation interventions as well as to identify key barriers to and opportunities for implementing adaptation. Many adaptive capacity assessments have relied on secondary data and expert judgement. Given the call in climate change research and practice for bottom-up approaches that value communities’ insight, it is clear that more participatory approaches for the assessment of adaptive capacity need to be developed. This research aims to address this gap by developing an adaptive capacity index that adopts a mixed methods approach and prioritises input from local stakeholders. Many adaptive capacity assessments have focussed on rural areas where livelihoods are directly exposed to climate variability. There is growing recognition that increasing numbers of people are settling in urban areas and many of these livelihoods are often at the margin. This thesis focuses on urban livelihoods where a more holistic understanding of adaptive capacity is required which recognises that a community’s capacity to adjust to climatic stressors is interlinked to its capacity to adjust to environmental, social, economic and political challenges. An adaptive capacity index is developed in this thesis that includes and characterises the more subjective determinants of adaptive capacity, rather than giving precedence to material resources as the key determinant of a community’s adaptive capacity. To achieve this richer understanding, the index is informed by a framework that incorporates aspects of individuals’ agency and social cohesion. Using a case study of four towns in the Bergrivier Municipality, South Africa, this research develops an index of adaptive capacity that is holistic, collaborative and interdisciplinary. The scores generated by the index are analysed using statistical and regression analyses that are contextualised by stakeholders’ inputs to explore the variation in adaptive capacity across socially differentiated groups. Key insights from these analyses relate to the variation in adaptive capacity between the four towns and differences in the adaptive capacity of males and females. Interestingly, the analyses revealed the absence of a positive correlation between schooling level and both adaptive capacity and wellbeing variables which could be attributed to limited economic opportunities in the area, particularly for high-skilled workers. The analyses also highlighted the need to support initiatives that strengthen the social cohesion within the community to improve the inclusion of marginal demographic groups. The thesis reflects on the participatory and collaborative research process, finding that combining quantitative and qualitative data through an interdisciplinary process has the potential to provide an index that is more reflective of subjective capacity. This more holistic understanding of adaptive capacity can align with the field of wellbeing, to offer valuable insight into building adaptive capacity for urban livelihoods that is grounded in both academic and applied fields. iii Contents Plagiarism declaration ............................................................................................................. i Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................ ii Abstract ................................................................................................................................. iii List of Tables ......................................................................................................................... vii List of Figures....................................................................................................................... viii Chapter 1. Introduction ......................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Background to the study ............................................................................................. 1 1.2. Aim and objectives ...................................................................................................... 2 1.3. Structure of this thesis ................................................................................................ 2 Chapter 2. Literature Review ................................................................................................. 4 2.1. Adaptation ................................................................................................................... 4 2.1.1. Defining adaptation ............................................................................................. 4 2.1.2. Characterising different forms of adaptation ...................................................... 4 2.2. Adaptive capacity ........................................................................................................ 5 2.2.1. Defining adaptive capacity ................................................................................... 5 2.2.2. Adaptive capacity, vulnerability and resilience ................................................... 6 2.3. Assessing adaptive capacity ........................................................................................ 7 2.3.1. Introduction to adaptive capacity assessments .................................................. 7 2.3.2. Adaptive Capacity Indices (ACIs) .......................................................................... 8 2.4. Critique of existing ACIs ............................................................................................ 11 2.4.1. Limited focus on the local level outside of the rural context ............................ 11 2.4.2. Addressing the subjective factors influencing adaptive capacity ...................... 12 2.4.3. Strengthening participation in the development of adaptive capacity indices 12 2.4.4. Reliance on secondary data sources .................................................................. 13 2.5. Wellbeing in adaptation research ............................................................................. 13 2.6. Conceptual framework for adaptive capacity ........................................................... 15 Chapter 3. Methods ............................................................................................................. 17 3.1. Research site ............................................................................................................. 17 3.2. Organisational context .............................................................................................. 18 3.3. Method development ............................................................................................... 18 3.4. Data collection........................................................................................................... 19 iv 3.4.1. Baseline surveys ................................................................................................. 19 3.4.2. FLOW Ambassador feedback workshops .......................................................... 20 3.5. Development and refinement of the ACI .................................................................. 22 3.5.1. Selection of indicators ......................................................................................