III. LOUISA COUNTY TODAY LOCATION The location of Louisa County is advantageous to appeal to business, industry, and individuals. The proximity to major cities, the mid-point location between I-95 and I-81, the two north/south interstates in Virginia, and the four County interchanges along I-64, as well as the U.S. routes crossing the County provide access to the areas the County deems most suitable for growth. These factors support the County's approach to focusing growth in specific areas of the County, taking advantage of the location. Distance to Major Cities NYC Washington DC. Chicago Pittsburgh 327 mi. 95 mi. 641 mi. 300 mi. Charlottesville 35 mi. LOUISA Richmond 51 mi. Nashville 585 mi. Norfolk 145 mi. Atlanta Charlotte 518 mi. 283 mi. Louisa County encompasses nearly 514 square miles or 328,960 acres of Central Virginia. The County extends about 26 miles from north to south, and 34 miles east to west. Louisa shares its western boundary with Albemarle County and its eastern boundary with Hanover County. To the north of Louisa lie Orange and Spotsylvania Counties, and to the south, Fluvanna and Goochland Counties. The incorporated towns of Louisa and Mineral are centrally located within the County. The County is part of the Thomas Jefferson Planning District, one of twenty-one planning districts established by the Commonwealth of Virginia in 1970. Map #1 illustrates the location of the County in the state and region. DEMOGRAPHICS The people, natural and built assets of Louisa County are substantial. Historically the sense of community has strengthened the County and carried it through many changes. III-1 As Louisa grows, the sense of community will be important to continuing what Louisa County residents treasure most about the County. To the extent possible the most current demographics were located and used. However, the Census 2000 was initiated during this year and some of the projections are subject to change. As projections are generally based on the past trends, the increase in home building is not fully integrated into the demographic picture of the County. POPULATION GROWTH The chart below illustrates the U.S. Census population counts from 1970 to 1990 and state estimates from 1990 to 2050. For the twenty-year horizon of the Comprehensive Plan (2000-2020), the estimated growth rate is 36% or 9,192 additional people. Taking the horizon out to 2050, the Virginia Employment Commission estimates Louisa County population will increase from the current estimate of 25,407 persons in 2000 to 48,387 Louisa County Population 1970-2050 Source: US Census, VEC 60,000 50,000 48,387 43,791 40,000 39,195 34,599 30,000 30,003 25,407 20,000 20,325 17,825 14,004 10,000 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 persons. This 2050 estimate shows about 8,000 more people in Louisa County than the City of Charlottesville. The resulting population density is shown on Map #2. Implications of this growth could be increased demand for public services resulting in increased costs of government, sprawl patterns of development illustrated by roadside lot commercial and residential development, need to expand public facilities such as schools, libraries, law enforcement, health care, etc. Some of this growth occurs as a result of the expansion of county business and industry, while some comes from outside Louisa County as parts of the county become "bedroom communities" for the Richmond, Charlottesville, and Fredericksburg areas. III-2 Map 2: Louisa County Population Densities and Forest Resource Distributions Distributions Resource Forest and Densities Population County Louisa 2: Map Louisa County Comprehensive Plan III-3 AGE AND GENDER DISTRIBUTION By 2010, the percentage of people in the 45 to 64 year old range is the only age group with a significant growth. The elderly population shows a small increase. The age groups under 44 years of age decrease as a percentage of the total population. The youngest, age 0 to 5 years remain relatively the same. This pattern is similar to other localities in the region. The slight increase in the elderly percentage will most likely continue to rise and, with it, demand for services for that age group. These services tend to be transportation and health care. ETHNIC DISTRIBUTION The white population has grown more rapidly than the non-white, from 67%/33% in 1980 to 73%/27% in 1990. Both populations distribute by age in a similar manner, the major group being young to middle age. HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION Fifty percent (50%) of Louisa County households include children under the age of 18 at the last census, the third highest percentage in the region. Fifteen percent of these households are headed by a single parent. In 1993, 15% of the children born were born to mothers under the age of twenty. Louisa had the highest percentage of low birth weight babies in the region. Louisa has the highest percentage of disabled persons over the age of 16 in the planning district. AGRICULTURE According to the U.S. Census of Agriculture, the number of farms increased by one from 1992 to 1997, but the average farm size slightly decreased from 212 acres to 205 acres during that same period. According to the Virginia Agricultural Statistics Service, in 1997 Louisa County agriculture included 79,019 acres in farms. This represents 24% of the total land area in Louisa and a 14% loss since 1982. In 1997 Louisa County reported 385 individual farms. Farms in Louisa County are 3% smaller than in 1992, but 5 acres above the state average. III-4 Louisa County has seen increases in beef cattle production, small farm dairies, horse production, contract poultry, and nursery and greenhouse enterprises. With increases in livestock and smaller farms there has also been a 10% increase in hay production. Sheep and swine numbers have continued to decline. 73% of the farms hold cattle and calf inventories; 71% of the farms sell cattle and livestock, accounting for over $7 million of sales. For 72% the major crop is hay/alfalfa and silage. The number of farms with sales values over $25,000 has increased; the number below $25,000 in sales has decreased. Forty-three percent (43%) of the farms are farmed by full time farmers, 57% report another primary occupation. The top five crop commodities produced in 1997 are legume and grass hay, corn for grain, soybeans, corn for silage, and wheat. Total corn and soybean acreage has increased slightly since 1992 while the number of farms, which produce these crops, has declined. The market value of agricultural products sold in Louisa County in 1997 was just under 10 million dollars. Livestock and poultry production (principally beef cattle) represents the majority of farm income. There are 5 grade "A" dairy farms in operation. 1998 county reports show 18,000 cattle and calves, including 9,000 beef cows, 1,000 dairy cows and 8,000 calves. Over 300 farms are involved in beef and dairy cattle production. Contract poultry production (broilers and turkeys) has increased and produces over 1,000,000 birds per year. Total farm incomes of $50,000 or more were reported by 11% of the farms in 1997. Most (89%) of the farms are small and/or part- time operations with total sale values of less than $50,000. Landowners are also establishing forestry and wildlife enterprises such as pine plantations, Christmas tree farms, fee fishing, and hunting preserves. These activities could be considered in heritage tourism marketing as well. III-5 ORESTRY LAND COVER The 1992 Forest Survey estimated the forested area of Louisa County at 228,500 acres, which is almost 72 percent of the total land area. The total forested land area of Louisa has remained essentially constant since the first forest survey was done in 1940, with acreage additions to forestland equaling deletions for uses such as agriculture or home sites. OWNERSHIP Forestland in Louisa is predominately owned by individuals. Non-industrial private landowners own 60 percent, farmers own 21 percent, corporate owners (other than forest industry) own 10 percent, and forest industry owns 9 percent. Public ownership is less than 1 percent. TYPES Hardwoods, mostly the oak-hickory type, make up the greatest portion of Louisa's forests (163,000 acres, or 69 percent). The oak-pine mixed type comprises 7 percent of the forestland. Pine types total 49,000 acres, or 21 percent. Of the pine acreage, 28,400 acres (12 percent of the forest) are in plantations and 20, 700 acres are in natural stands (Forest Statistics for the Northern Piedmont of Virginia. 1992-USDA, Forest Service, Resource Bulletin SE-l27). HARVESTS/REFORESTATION For the past 5 years, most forestland that was completely harvested was reforested or allowed to regenerate naturally into mixed stands of hardwood and pine. From July 1998 to the end of June 1999 approximately 3556 acres were thinned or cleared. In 1999, 2130 acres were reforested, mostly in loblolly pine, with some tracts planted in shortleaf pine or mixed hardwoods (Virginia Department of Forestry). III-6 ECONOMIC IMPACTS Stumpage, the money paid to forest landowners for the right to harvest their standing timber, averaged 3.2 million dollars per year for the years 1992 through 1996. (Virginia Department of Forestry, 1997) Value added activities such as logging, primary processing at mills, secondary processing into finished products, transportation of forest products, construction, marketing, and induced economic impacts from wages, add value to the local economy in both employment and income. A 1995 Virginia Department of Forestry study estimated that for every dollar of stumpage received by forest landowners, $28.16 is generated by value added activities, and another $20.48 is generated by induced economic impacts.